The Oakleigh Plate (1100m), to be run and won this Saturday at Caulfield, is the premier sprint race at the Heath and it always attracts a quality line up of sprinters.
It also can be used as a target race for future stallions, as we have seen in recent history with Snitzel and Fastnet Rock saluting before going to do great things in the breeding.
It generally is a nightmare event for punters to do the form on with confidence so here are my thoughts.
Speed
They have the potential to go nuts on speed here. Snitty Kitty will have to chance the arm early from the wide draw.
Sheidel and Prussian Vixen come over and with the light weight, I think Ben Thompson may roll forward with Booker. Russian Revolution has the speed to come over too and get the ideal drag up off that tempo.
History
Horses drawn wide aren’t really that disadvantaged when it comes to Oakleigh Plate. Eight of the last 18 winners of the race have started from gate ten or wider, most notably Swiss Ace in 2009 who started from gate 18 in the 18 horse field and sat on speed throughout. It’s also a race where it’s difficult to successfully carry weight.
The last 30 years has only seen four horses win with 55.5kg or more: Fastnet Rock (2005), Undue (2007), Eagle Falls (2011) and Flamberge (2016). Favourites don’t have the greatest record in the race. Since 2000, only four favs have saluted, the latest being Lankan Rupee in 2014.
Who can’t win?
He’s a past winner and a beauty, but can’t see Flamberge winning. Sheidel won the race last year but may cop too much pressure. Don’t like Illustrious Lad, Fuhryk, Savanna Amour from the gate will take a gem of a ride to win.
Snitty Kitty was disappointing first up, Prussian Vixen outclassed, Sword Of Light no, Lady Esprit no, Rock ‘N’ Gold no, likewise Palazzo Publico.
The a-grade chances
I’m firmly in the camp of Russian Revolution. She Will Reign has been set for this race and I think she will be much better when she has a bunny to chase, as we saw in the Moir. Bons Away has been trialling like Black Caviar and gets an ideal set up here to run a beauty.
Next tier
He’s a bludger, but on his day, Hellbent can easily blow this field away. Good splits first up against the tempo and he gets conditions to suit. I think Glenall is a silly price. Noted fresh performer who wasn’t far off Russian Revolution in the Galaxy.
Catchy…I’ve seen better jump outs, but she’s too good to dismiss. Booker was dominant in the Kevin Hayes, has the run under the belt and is so well in at the weights.
The verdict
I think this race all evolves around the Team Snowden trained sprinter Russian Revolution. If he is anywhere near right and/or wound up, I think he will be too classy for them. Had a two run Spring prep, winning the McEwen first up before having a torrid run in the Moir and dropping out.
Been set for this race and his two trials in Sydney have simply been outstanding. If he’s right, he wins.
She Will Reign is the boom filly for Gary Portelli who is a multiple Group l winner so despite being three years old, she does have the runs on the board, including winning that Moir in an unbelievable finish.
She resumed in the Inglis Sprint and while visually, it was ugly, she got the job done and from all reports, Portelli was very kind to her leading in, so she should improve off that big time, and she is a chaser.
Getting cover is vital. Bons Away has been a real star of the trials at Caulfield recently and looks to have taken great confidence from an awesome Spring prep, where the highlight was clearly the narrow fourth in the Gilgai.
If he runs anywhere near his jump outs, he’ll take some beating.
$100 betting strategy
$100 win on Russian Revolution. I think if he’s right, he wins. The only proper older Group 1 sprinter in the field who flies fresh.
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