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Predicting the NBL award winners for season 2017-18

Jerome Randle is the reigning MVP – who will take this season's award? (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Expert
27th February, 2018
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With the NBL finals beginning Saturday night, following the FIBA break, the major award winners are set to be announced and it’s time to offer some predictions.

It was a high-quality, entertaining and super competitive season, with the calibre of players across the board up there with the very best in the 40-year history of the league.

The season finished with a fair gap between the top four teams – Melbourne United, Adelaide 36ers, Perth Wildcats and New Zealand – who will contest the finals, and those in the bottom four – the Illawarra Hawks, Cairns Taipans, Sydney Kings and Brisbane Bullets.

But across all eight teams there were outstanding players, starting with import guards Casper Ware, Bryce Cotton, Travis Trice, Edgar Sosa, DJ Newbill, Shannon Shorter, Rotnei Clarke and late arriving reigning MVP Jerome Randle.

There was a brilliant class of small forwards too, including imports Perrin Buford, Demetrius Conger, Jean-Pierre Tokoto, Josh Childress and Casey Prather, and locals Mitch Creek, Tom Abercrombie and Mitch McCarron.

The outstanding big men included Daniel Johnson, Josh Boone and the ever-improving Tai Wesley.

Right across the board, the talent level were outstanding.

That makes for some fascinating discussion over award winners. Let’s get right to it.

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Most valuable player: Demitrius Conger (Illawarra Hawks)
The way the MVP voting is conducted always makes this a fascinating award to judge, with the coaching staff of both teams awarding votes to the players from the opposition who had the biggest impact after each game.

That leads to a standout player on a team being a more likely winner than someone on a team with greater depth, which is why I’ve gone with Conger.

He became a more and more dominant figure on his team as the season wore on, finishing with the supremely impressive numbers of 19.7 points a game to go with 5.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting at an outstanding 51.4 per cent from the field, 39.8 from three-point range and 79.6 per cent from the foul line.

He proved himself a better-than-expected three-point shooter, unstoppable when making moves to the basket and just a tremendous all-round player on a team where he was asked to do a lot.

He is a more-than-deserving MVP winner after his first season in the NBL.

Other contenders
Jerome Randle was the standout choice last season as MVP for what he did with the minor premier Adelaide 36ers. What he did at the Sydney Kings this season would have had him win again, if he had been here from the start. Missing the first nine games is the only reason he doesn’t win.

Melbourne United’s Casey Prather would likely be leading at the halfway point before his elbow injury, while his teammates Josh Boone and Casper Ware would be high on the final leaderboard.

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Perth Wildcats import pair Jean-Pierre Tokoto and Bryce Cotton both deserve to be in the discussion as well and have been the dominant figures on their team that again made finals. Same goes for Breakers pair Edgar Sosa and DJ Newbill.

Daniel Johnson and Mitch Creek are in contention from Adelaide but will share plenty of votes with Shannon Shorter, Ramone Moore, Nathan Sobey and Josh Childress.

Brisbane’s Perrin Buford and Travis Trice could both surprise and end up at the pointy end, along with Mitch McCarron from Cairns.

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Rookie of the year: Isaac Humphries (Sydney Kings)
Unfortunately it’s a remarkably small class of nominees for rookie of the year, just like it was 12 months ago when it went the way of Anthony Drmic from the Adelaide 36ers.

The three nominees are Isaac Humphries from the Sydney Kings, Craig Moller from Melbourne United and Kuany Kuany from the Cairns Taipans.

Kuany didn’t play enough to be in contention and it just doesn’t feel right for Moller to win considering he made his NBL debut in the 2015-16 season and appeared in 13 games in 2016-17 for the Sydney Kings.

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He is eligible because this is his first season as a full contracted player, but I wouldn’t feel right with him as winner. Despite that, he has all the tools to be an outstanding player and potentially the best defender in the league.

That leaves Humphries as the only man who should be right to win this award. The 20-year-old had some good moments as the centre for the Kings, finishing up with 6.9 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting at a terrific 58.3 per cent from the floor.

Best defensive player: Perrin Buford (Brisbane Bullets)
This is likely the toughest award this season to judge, because there hasn’t been one standout player defensively across the league like Torrey Craig in 2016-17 and of course Damian Martin before that.

Adding to the complication is that under the awards criteria, each club must nominate one player to be eligible, thus ruling out some players who were genuine contenders.

Jean-Pierre Tokoto from the Perth Wildcats might not have been the best one-on-one defender, but he was able to change games at the defensive end through his athleticism, quick hands and ability to read the game. He led the league in steals, at 1.8 a game, while pulling in 4.2 defensive rebounds and 1.8 offensive boards. His ability to create steals by defending the inbounds pass and getting in the lanes was outstanding along with some of 15 blocks for the season.

But despite all that, he isn’t eligible because the Wildcats nominated Martin. He was again solid but clearly hasn’t been at 100 per cent most of the season to have his usual defensive impact.

Melbourne United is the other interesting one. Casey Prather certainly was in the running at the halfway mark, Josh Boone should be in contention and Craig Moller has shown enough to be a future winner.

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But they have nominated point guard Casper Ware, who does deserve serious consideration.

Of the other players nominated, Demitrius Conger, DJ Newbill and Jerome Randle are certainly not contenders in this category.

That leaves the genuine contenders being Mitch Creek from the Adelaide 36ers, Mitch McCarron from the Cairns Taipans and Perrin Buford from the Brisbane Bullets.

McCarron is an outstanding rebounder for his size but not necessarily a standout defender. Creek is, however.

The Sixers forward has become such a standout all-round player that he could very well have a permanent spot with the Boomers even with all the NBA players in the mix. Defensively, he can change the games in so many ways and defend one-on-one.

But Buford was the standout defensive player this season. Things might not have ended on good terms, but his ability to defend rival small forwards like Tokoto, Conger and Prather, and block shots and rebound strongly means it should be his award this season.

Just don’t expect many congratulations from his club.

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Best sixth man: Ramone Moore (Adelaide 36ers)
This is the sole award with only one genuine contender: Ramone Moore.

After a good season with Melbourne United a year ago, which was cut short after 17 games, he returned for a second stint in the NBL this time with the 36ers and has settled into his role coming off the bench perfectly.

Moore has fitted in seamlessly with the game style of coach Joey Wright, capable of running and gunning, and when he is given the ball and allowed to make a move to the basket he has proven himself virtually unguardable.

He finished the season averaging 11.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists while playing just 21.6 minutes and shooting at a superb 53.4 per cent from the floor, 44.4 per cent from beyond the arc and 72.5 at the charity stripe.

It was another award where each club nominated a player but Reuben TeRangi (Brisbane Bullets), Jerry Evans Jr (Cairns Taipans), Tim Coenraad (Illawarra Hawks), Craig Moller (Melbourne United), Shea Ili (NZ Breakers), Jesse Wagstaff (Perth Wildcats) and Isaac Humphries (Sydney Kings) aren’t close to Moore.

Most improve player: Shea Ili (New Zealand Breakers)
Perhaps the most hotly debated award for this season is most improved, largely because of what it’s actually been judged on – if you have dramatically improved to have a career-best season or have you improved on 12 months ago to show some form from earlier in your career.

It’s also another one where each club has nominated a player, which has eliminated some potential candidates like Mitch McCarron from the Cairns Taipans, Finn Delany from the New Zealand Breakers, and even Craig Moller from Melbourne United.

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As for the players nominated, there are some standout choices, but you can put your pen through Majok Deng (Adelaide), Reuben TeRangi (Brisbane), Nick Kay (Illawarra), Tai Wesley (Melbourne) and Jason Cadee (Sydney) either because their output is relatively similar overall or not enough to be in contention.

That leaves Alex Loughton from Cairns, Shea Ili from New Zealand and Lucas Walker from Perth as the genuine contenders.

Walker deserved to win at the halfway point of the season. Having sat out last season while training with the Wildcats after starting as an injury replacement, he was a different player. He was playing unselfish, controlled and disciplined to be a terrific starting four man, stepping up with the retirement of Matt Knight.

However, his back half of the season saw him get back to old habits, with a lack of discipline, costly mistakes hurting his team, soft fouls and settling for too many three-point shots. He deserves credit for his return, but it’s not a reward for what you did for half of the campaign.

This season, Loughton averaged 12.6 points and 3.6 rebounds a game. Last season, he went at just 6.6 points and 3.0 boards. That’s a great improvement but he’s really back to the level he’s been at most of his career, so it depends how it’s judged.

Then you have Ili at the Breakers, who on the back of some standout form with the Tall Blacks, has had by far the best season of his career and that has even seen him play down the stretch of games ahead of Edgar Sosa.

Last season, he averaged just 4.4 points and 1.5 assists. This season, he is up to 9.2 points and 3.2 assists in 21.5 minutes while shooting at 38.0 per cent from the field, 35.0 per cent from deep and 71.1 at the foul line.

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It’s not just his numbers though. His ability to play important minutes with games on the line has been match-winning at times.

Coach of the year: Dean Vickerman (Melbourne United)
This is one award with an obvious candidate. By no means does that mean any disrespect to the other seven coaches across the league, but what Dean Vickerman has done to transform Melbourne United has been outstanding.

Vickerman proved himself a championship-winning coach at the New Zealand Breakers back in 2015 before a desire to return to Australia saw him as assistant coach to Andrew Gaze, then take over at Melbourne for 2016-17.

It was a big job too. While the talent level at Melbourne was never a question, getting the group to gel and play together as one solid unit had been an issue and why they had underperformed under Dean Demopoulos.

But Vickerman has transformed the team into one with a strong defensive mindset who play a physical brand of basketball, and are consistent at both ends of the floor.

Vickerman deserves a lot of the credit for that and the fact his team claimed the regular season championship with a 20-8 record. They now head into the playoffs winning 14 of their last 16 games.

All-NBL first team
Josh Boone (Melbourne United)
Daniel Johnson (Adelaide 36ers)
Mitch Creek (Adelaide 36ers)
Demitrius Conger (Illawarra Hawks)
Casper Ware (Melbourne United)

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All-NBL second team
Tai Wesley (Melbourne United)
Perrin Buford (Brisbane Bullets)
Jean-Pierre Tokoto (Perth Wildcats)
Bryce Cotton (Perth Wildcats)
Jerome Randle (Sydney Kings)

The front court in the first team picks itself. Josh Boone has been a dominant figure for Melbourne and Daniel Johnson has been outstanding for Adelaide. You just can’t leave either big man out.

Melbourne’s Tai Wesley is the next standout, but really he’s the only predominate inside player who takes up his spot in the second team.

The wing positions are where it really gets difficult. I have gone with Mitch Creek and Demitrius Conger but really there were strong cases to be made by Perrin Buford, Jean-Pierre Tokoto, DJ Newbill, Mitch McCarron and a host of others.

To that end I have found spots for both Buford and Tokoto in the second team.

Then there are the bunch of start point guards. To narrow it down to one was remarkably difficult, but Casper Ware gets the nod because of playing at both ends of the floor so well.

Bryce Cotton and Jerome Randle were hot on his hammer and they make up the back court in the second team – just ahead of Travis Trice and Edgar Sosa.

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