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Here are the ‘ELO-FF’ ratings and predictions for Week 5 of the AFLW season.
Melbourne vs Brisbane, Casey Fields, Friday, March 2
Brisbane: 3-1, 137.7%, second place – ELO-FF rating of 56.7
Melbourne: 2-2, 99.4%, third place – ELO-FF rating of 51.0
The bookies say Brisbane by 3.5 points; the ratings say Brisbane by just 1.7 points. I’m splitting the difference and saying Lions by two.
Win here, Brisbane, and you should go 6-1 and clear as day into the final. Lose here, Melbourne, and you’re at 2-3 with the Bulldogs in Week 7 looming.
But if Melbourne can defeat the Lions by three goals or so, they’ll move ahead of them on the ladder with the chance to meet Footscray for a finals spot in two weeks. There’s a lot to play for here for both teams.
Fremantle vs GWS, Fremantle Oval, Saturday, March 3
GWS: 1-2-1, 89.2%, sixth place – ELO-FF rating of 41.6
Fremantle: 2-2, 88.4%, fourth place – ELO-FF rating of 45.1
The bookies say Freo by 3.5; the ratings say Freo by 7.5 points. Again, I’m splitting the difference and saying Fremantle should beat the spread and win by 4-5 points.
If the Dockers can win, they’ve still got to get past Adelaide in South Australia (and Carlton at home) to have a shot at the finals, but this year two losses is not the end of the world. On the other hand, the Giants’ two remaining games are against the top two teams on the ladder, so even with a win they’d better be on their knees in prayer for bedlam above them to make the final.
Adelaide vs Carlton, Norwood Oval, Saturday, March 3
Carlton: 2-2, 55.7%, fifth place – ELO-FF rating of 41.4
Adelaide: 1-2-1, 73.6%, seventh place – ELO-FF rating of 53.3
The bookies say Adelaide by 8.5; the ratings put it out there at 15.9 points. Normally, I’d agree that this could be a blow out (and it still could be) but after a game like last week’s debacle against the Bulldogs, Carlton’s pride is on the line. They’ll keep it close.
The Crows will win it with a late goal. And if they do, they’ve got Fremantle and the Magpies left on the schedule, two other teams they should defeat – and if ever a team could make finals with two and a half losses, it’s this one, where the only three teams without sub-100 percentages are the teams in first, second… and last places.
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Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs, Summerton, Sunday, March 4
Bulldogs: 3-1, 200%, first place – ELO-FF rating of 62.5
Collingwood, 1-3, 100%, eighth place – ELO-FF rating of 48.4
Bookies say this is an easy win: Bulldogs by 10.5 points. Our ratings agree, with the Dogs favoured by 10.1 as well.
But Collingwood built a little confidence during last week’s initial victory of the season, and one has to wonder how much is in the Bulldogs’ tank after scoring 86 points last week. I refuse to overthink this and call for a Magpie upset, but I’m only betting on the Doggies to win, not cover. Say by three points, if you need a number.
And remember, even a 73-point victory only counts as one victory – they could very well be 4-2 or even 3-3 when they meet Melbourne in Week 7 if they let their focus down.
Lose Sunday, and not only do the Demons control their own destiny, but Brisbane’s most likely ahead of them for the one-seed. And thanks to the draw, neither Adelaide nor GWS care about the Dogs’ gaudy percentage anymore. A Bulldog loss brings almost everybody back into the picture.
In the race for the meta-Player of the Year, the current standings look like this:
Emma Kearney (WB) – 93
Chelsea Randall (AD) – 92
Kate Lutkins (BR) – 83
Daisy Pearce (ME) – 79
Alicia Eva (GW) – 75
Chloe Molloy (CO) – 74
Jessica Wuetschner (BR) – 73
If the final three rounds were to go to form (according to the team ratings), the final AFLW standings would have two clear-cut finalists…
Western Bulldogs 6-1-0
Brisbane 6-1-0
Adelaide 4-2-1
Fremantle 4-3-0
Melbourne 3-4-0
Carlton 2-5-0
GWS Giants 1-5-1
Collingwood 1-6-0
But since this season has been even less predictable than last, don’t count on those standings holding up even through Week 5.
Enjoy the footy, everyone!
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