Sydney opens their Group 1 account for 2018 with the Chipping Norton Stakes and Surround Stakes up at Randwick, but the main feature of the day is the Australian Guineas at Flemington, as Melbourne moves through the thick end of their summer/autumn carnival.
Thankfully, the Australian Guineas doesn’t clash with the Randwick Guineas this year, and we don’t have the farcical scenario of two Group 1 Guineas for three year olds over the same distance on the same day.
There’s a few different formlines converging on this event, which always makes for an exciting betting race.
The key lead-up is always the CS Hayes, and the quinella from that race head the market here.
Grunt got the better of Cliff’s Edge in the CS Hayes, with a comfortable margin drawing away, but he was getting 3.5kgs off his rival there, a weight difference that told late. Level weights is a different story, and Grunt had the cosier run that day too.
An extra layer of intrigue is added by them both drawing the car park, and the run to the first turn at the Flemington 1600m is not a long one. There is vulnerability there.
(Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images for the VRC)
Muraaqeb and Main Stage ran third and fourth in the CS Hayes, both making ground from well back. Muraaqeb had a straight run, while Main Stage had to negotiate traffic with slightly more weight. Both always run well at Flemington, and are chances.
Kiwi Embellish had his chance in the same race but was plain, and might be better back at the mile. It was a similar story for Peaceful State, and it would be hard to make a genuine case for either.
The Autumn Stakes is usually a second tier lead-up race for the Australian Guineas, and the market is expecting something similar here.
Holy Snow won the race first-up from last, and is proven at 1600m with his third in the Stutt Stakes back in spring. He easily beat subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner Mighty Boss there, and looks overs.
Mr So And So is another that looks a little forgotten in the betting. He was second in the Autumn Stakes, and then stepped up to 1800m for a third in the Autumn Classic. He’ll be nice and fit back to a mile now.
Levendi and Villermont were safely held when resuming in the Autumn Stakes, but are both smart on their day. Levendi won the Carbine Club Stakes on Derby Day over this track and distance, while Villermont took out the Sandown Guineas in fine style a fortnight later. Both are in the game.
Black Sail is always around the mark, and it’s a nice sign of the race depth that he’s the most despised at $34. Salsamor was second in the aforementioned Stutt Stakes, so could be in the mix after a pleasing return in restricted grade.
Mighty Boss has tackled Group 1 weight-for-age in his two runs back from a spell after his Guineas win, and has had mixed fortunes. He hasn’t exactly had every chance so far, and is drawn for a cosy run.
Addictive Nature comes down from Sydney, and is a spruik horses that doesn’t win that often. He’s won one of his last five, despite an average starting price of under $3 in that time. He has been good in his two Sydney WFA runs, but not outstanding.
(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
Fillies can run well in this race, and a couple of smart ones usually line up. Aloisia and Bring Me Roses are playing that role here.
Aloisia looked a superstar in the making winning the Thousand Guineas and the Moonee Valley Vase in spring, but her bubble burst in the Oaks, as can happen. She was okay first-up in the Vanity, but we might have wanted to see a little more.
Bring Me Roses is another strong Flemington horse, and her win in the Edward Manifold in October, over the Flemington mile, was simply outstanding. She was excellent first-up in the Vanity, and is yet another with place claims at least, and could easily win if things go her way.
This isn’t a race with hectic speed on paper, but Cliff’s Edge will certainly push across from his wide draw, and will want to do so quickly. If he can’t get across early enough, that could inject some genuine tempo into the race.
Selections: 1.Main Stage 2.Cliff’s Edge 3.Mighty Boss 4.Bring Me Roses
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
