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Supercars Championship 2018: The title contenders

Scott McLaughlin (Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Roar Rookie
2nd March, 2018
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As the Supercars Championship begins this week with the 20th running of the Adelaide 500, now is time to reflect on what was one of the closer championships of all time in 2017 and predict the standings of what is destined to be another tight title race.

Tim Slade – #14

Team: Brad Jones Racing
2017 results: 11th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 10th

The 2018 season is poised to be a significant one in the career of Tim Slade, who enters his 10th year in the main game. The 32-year-old’s career has resembled a rocky road, but hopefully there’s a sunny mountain top rather than a cliff face around the corner.

Slade announced himself as a driver on the rise with an incredible fifth place in the standings in 2012, when he finished outside of the top 16 only once, but he’s been unable to replicate the season-long success of his highlight year, slumping to as low as 22nd in the standings in 2013 before rebounding to eighth in 2016 after joining Brad Jones Racing, with whom he recorded his maiden round win at Winton.

But 2017 was another down year on the Tim Slade career roller-coaster. However, he recorded eight top-ten finishes highlighted by two podiums – one at the opening race of the Gold Coast 600 and the second at the opening race of the Newcastle 500 – giving him some optimism for 2018.

The year has started with a bang for Slade, topping the time sheets at preseason testing at Sydney Motorsport Park, and while everyone plays their cards pretty close these days, seeing his name leading the pack should give him confidence.

The Adelaidean needs to replicate the form he showed in the final half of last season, when his consistent performances saw him rocket up the standings.

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Consistency is the secret ingredient in the Supercars championship. We have seen multiple times how keeping out of incidents and staying the course sees a driver move up the standings.

With the rush of young blood infused into the championship, this is the time for Slade to be one of the mature heads in the field and to start getting the results that will return him to the top ten of the standings.

Best-case scenario
His test day speed wasn’t a fluke and Slade is able to keep the BJR ZB Commodore towards the front of the grid. His racing ability isn’t questioned; it is his qualifying speed – or lack thereof – that hampers his ability to win races. Correct this in 2018 and he could be a race-winner.

Worst-case scenario
His test day speed was a fluke and the rest of the competition quickly swallow up the BJR outfit, which is running six cars across the main championship and the Super2 title. With promising rookie Zane Goddard on the driving roster Slade needs to keep an eye on the rear-view mirror.

Tim Slade on track in his Brad Jones Racing Commodore.

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Michael Caruso – #23

Team: Nissan Motorsport
2017 results: 13th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 9th

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It looked like things were heading in the right direction for Michael Caruso and the Nissan Motorsport team when they recorded a win at Hidden Valley Raceway in 2016 and scored consistent top-ten finishes, but 2017 was a fall from grace for the team and a step backwards for the experienced driver.

The Nissan Altimas could not find the speed or the consistency needed to have an impact in the Supercars series, and while many will point to the team’s failure to generate the best from the hard Dunlop tyre, this was just masking bigger problems for the team.

A lack of genuine speed and poor reliability and fuel mileage proved to be some of the bigger challenges faced by the four-car stable in 2017. Now the pressure is on Caruso to produce in a year that could determine whether the Japanese brand stays in the category or not.

Caruso, now a stalwart of the category, enters his 11th season more determined and hungrier than ever, but he is also approaching the end of his rope, lacking the pace needed to be a consistent performer in this super-competitive category. Turning 35 in May, chances for Caruso to be a contender are starting to evaporate.

The Nissan Altima looks a peach from the early season reports, with Caruso finishing third and team owner Rick Kelly finishing fifth. With Todd Kelly hanging up the helmet to focus solely on running the team, this could bode well for Caruso.

Look out for a stomper year from this hard driver. Caruso is a race winner and he possesses all the necessary ability. Now he just needs to make it count when it matters and hope for his sake and for that of Nissan Motorsport that he will be spraying the champagne at every round.

I’m predicting his best-ever season finish.

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Best-case scenario
The early season speed isn’t a mirage and the Altima has rediscovered the promise it showed in the back end of the 2016 season. Caruso unlocks the absolute maximum out of the machinery and puts together his best year, recording some wins.

Worst-case scenario
When many are predicting the 2018 field will be one of the best ever, any small mistake will be exacerbated, any car troubles will be magnified and the margin of error is minuscule. If the Nissan struggles continue, the season will be another disaster.

Michael Caruso tests his 2018 Nissan Altima.

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Mark Winterbottom

Team: Tickford Racing
2017 results: 6th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 8th

Mark Winterbottom was the quiet achiever of the 2017 season. Stringing together solid results at Phillip Island, Perth and Townsville and recording top-ten finishes at Sandown and the Gold Coast saw Frosty finish as best of the rest, though he was still some 500 points away from the top five.

One major reason for the gap between himself and the frontrunners was the fact Winterbottom failed to record a race victory for the first time since 2005, when he was racing under the Larkham Motor Sport banner. That’s 12 straight seasons!

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A classy driver entering the twilight years of his career, the Sydney native will turn 37 during the season but remains as spritely and punchy as he did as a precocious rookie entering the sport in 2004. Remember that he was series champion in 2015 in one of the more dominant seasons of recent times.

Winterbottom is now entering an interesting time in his career. Having won everything there is to win, the senior driver must now consider what his next challenge will be. For the 2018 championship this should be another top-five finish and to do what he can to assist his hard-charging teammates to the title.

Whatever the case, it will be an interesting year for the former champion.

Best-case scenario
Winterbottom oozes class whenever he straps himself into the car. Using his incredible breadth of experience, he records a number of solid podium finishes and even pinches a win or two while the younger newcomers struggle to adapt to the new Dunlop tyre.

Worst-case scenario
A repetition of poor results starts to weigh on the former champion and the hunger and the motivation aren’t there to fight on those down days.

Mark Winterbottom puts on his overalls.

(AAP Image/Edge Photographics)

David Reynolds – #9

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Team: Erebus Motorsport
2017 results: 7th – 1 win, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 7th

David Reynolds and Erebus Motorsport may be a marriage made in racing heaven, as the driver who has always punched above his weight and has never been afraid to speak his mind continues to thrive in the eccentric Erebus garages.

Reynolds enjoyed his biggest career highlight to date last season, winning the Bathurst 1000 paired with Luke Youlden. The 32-year-old had the weekend of his life, showing speed as soon as the car rolled out on track. He was pipped for pole in the shootout by Scott McLaughlin’s all-time lap record, but it was Sunday when Reynolds put in a stellar drive to win the big race.

After struggling in his first year with the small team in 2016 – after all, racing under the Prodrive umbrella was a seismic shift from the previous four years – he capitalised on the car speed in the Rod Nash Racing Falcon to finish third in 2015.

Rather than signing back on with Prodrive and shooting for the top spot, Reynolds was almost unceremoniously ushered on to make way for then promising rookie Cameron Waters.

But the character of the series didn’t let this derail his championship ambitions; rather, he has used it as motivation to get back to the top of the series, and 2017 showed he is on the right track.

The challenge for Reynolds and Erebus Motorsport is to show the impressive seventh-place season finish wasn’t a flash in the pan and that they are a team to be reckoned with.

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They have the perfect driver for their operation. Reynolds is fast, he qualifies at the front of the grid and he races hard. Now they have to do it again, but they have to be even better this year in an even stronger field. The challenge might be too much.

Best-case scenario
Reynolds explodes from the get-go in season 2018, securing poles and winning races, which provides a new challenge he may never have experienced in Supercars: being the hunted. Reynolds has shown the potential to be a champion.

Worst-case scenario
Reliability. It is that simple for Erebus Motorsport. If they can provide Reynolds with a beast, he can rein it in, but if they provide Reynolds with a pig, there won’t be much he can do with it.

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Fabian Coulthard – #12

Team: DJR Team Penske
2017 results: 3rd – 4 wins, 1 pole
2018 prediction: 6th

Four wins and another seven podium finishes saw Fabian Coulthard have a career-best year in 2017, with the Kiwi finishing in third position on the title table.

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Coulthard proved to be the perfect foil for Scott McLaughlin at DJR Team Penske, providing in-race support as a rear gunner and doing his best Goose impersonation.

But he proved to be a top gun in his own right, driving the team to the manufacturer title and in so doing giving them the ideal pit lane garage for what promises to be another tight race in 2018. Any advantage will be a blessing.

The knock on Coulthard throughout his career has been his qualifying results – he has failed to get his machine towards the front of the grid. This was evident once again in 2017, when Coulthard could secure the only lone pole at the opening race of the Perth SuperSprint. The issue was compounded when he looked to the other side of the garage, where his teammate took a record 16 pole positions.

When you are driving one of the best cars, if not the best car, on the grid, you should be up the front where it deserves to be, but continual lacklustre qualifying results have meant Coulthard has had to weave his way through a pack of the most competitive racers in the world, for whom a fight for 17th has the same vigour as the battle for the lead.

If he does not improve his qualifying results, Coulthard is destined to take a step backwards. It’s that simple.

Best-case scenario
Fabian Coulthard has always been one the savviest drivers in the field. Producing results in an overmatched Brad Jones Racing Commodore in the past, he has now been blessed with the best car in the field and now is the time to take advantage. Solid podium finishes sees him challenge for the title.

Worst-case scenario
Aforementioned qualifying difficulties see him caught up in too many unnecessary scraps that derail his championship ambition.

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Fabian Coulthard celebrates on the podium at the 2017 Newcastle 500.

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Cameron Waters

Team: Tickford Racing
2017 results: 8th – 1 win, 2 poles
2018 prediction: 5th

Cam Waters continues his meteoric rise toward the top of the Supercars rankings as he enters his third year in the championship.

The former Dunlop Series champion showed glimpses of his immense talent in his 2016 debut season with a fourth-place finish at Bathurst, but it was last season that Waters evolved into a race winner.

Hitting a purple patch during the middle of the season, he recorded four straight top-ten finishes before breaking through for his maiden victory at the Sandown 500, where he partnered new teammate Richie Stanaway to put in a terrific and mature drive well beyond their years.

But the taste of victory has now left Waters wanting more, and the 23-year-old Victorian has the talent to be a dark horse in 2018.

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Waters has shown he has the pace to win pole positions, claiming two last year at Sandown and the opening race of the Auckland SuperSprint, and this ability bodes well for a driver who is surely going to compete for priority pitstops with star teammate Mark Winterbottom on race days.

In a season where every car has the ability to win races, it could be the perfect storm for a young and hungry driver with all the talent to be a surprise champion.

We have seen young champions in the past: Jamie Whincup as a baby-faced 25-year-old and of course the boy wonder Craig Lowndes. Why couldn’t the driven 23-year-old join their ranks? He will be one to watch in 2018.

Best-case scenario
With another year in the main game and after an impressive showing in the Bathurst 12-hour, this boy knows how to race. He was right there in so many races in 2017 before mistakes cost him wins. In 2018 there are none of those mistakes.

Worst-case scenario
The pressure of being the next wunderkind proves to be too much for the Mildura native, who attempts to chase the wins and the title, forcing the issue, leading to mistakes and DNFs. There has not been a champion with more than three race DNFs in the past decade – something to ponder if struggles start to creep in.

Cameron Waters celebrates on the podium in 2017.

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Jamie Whincup – #1

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Team: Triple Eight Race Engineering
2017 results: Champion – 4 wins, 2 poles
2018 prediction: 4th

The 2017 championship cemented the legendary status of Jamie Whincup, who secured his seventh title in dramatic fashion. Unlike his previous championship years, 2017 added a new wrinkle of greatness for the all-time champion as he failed to make an immediate impact at the opening handful of rounds of the season.

It wasn’t until the 13th race of the season in Townsville that the champ recorded his first victory of the season. While his main competitor, Scott McLaughlin, was on a hot streak of the sort the sport hasn’t seen Whincup was young, the now elder statesman Whincup bided his time and continued to rack up the high points-scoring finishes.

Whincup continued to pick his spots, picking up a victory at Sydney Motorsport Park and putting in a solid Enduro Cup performance, before he showed his class in taking victory in the carnage-strewn final race of the year in Newcastle and claiming the championship in the process.

Whincup’s four race victories made for the smallest win total in a championship-winning season since Russell Ingall’s two victories way back in 2005.

It’s now almost laughable how good this living legend is. With his seventh title Whincup has joined, if not surpassed, names like Dick Johnson, Mark Skaife and Peter Brock as the best of all time. We need to appreciate this racing legend while he’s still competing.

The only knock on Whincup isn’t a matter of his racing ability – we already know he is one of the greatest ever to compete in the category – but is rather a question of human nature. After seven titles, four Bathurst 1000 crowns and over 100 race victories, what else does he have to win?

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The 35-year-old has done everything in the top flight of Australian motorsport, and finding the motivation for another go in 2018 will be his biggest challenge. Time will tell, but please make sure you appreciate him while he’s competing.

Best-case scenario
Whincup is the greatest driver in the history of Supercars. Others will dispute this with names like Brock, Skaife, and Jim Richards, but to be able to consistently win when the category has never been closer showcases his brilliance. He has the car to win an eighth championship and end the debate forever.

Worst-case scenario
Natural human tendencies may mean Whincup isn’t as motivated in 2018, resulting in poor race results carrying through the first half of year. Whincup turns his attention to 2019, when the introduction of the turbo engine will pique his interest again.

Jamie Whincup of Red Bull Racing Australia

(AAP Image/Edge Photographics)

Shane van Gisbergen – #97

Team: Triple Eight Race Engineering
2017 results: 4th – 5 wins, 3 poles
2018 prediction: 3rd

There are not many drivers in the Supercars who could say finishing fourth at season’s end is a disappointing year, but one of these drivers is Shane van Gisbergen.

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The 2016 defending champion started last season with the best possible start: a clean sweep of the final Clipsal 500 event in Adelaide, firing a warning shot to the rest of the field that his Triple Eight Commodore was going to be a title contender again.

But in the ultimate display of how competitive the Supercars category is, five race victories and seven further podiums was good enough to get the 28-year-old Kiwi only fourth place in the championship.

Looking back over the season, Van Gisbergen can highlight five races in which he uncharacteristically struggled to get a positive result, with the defending champion finishing lower than 15th in all five races. Those five results cruelled his chances of being a back-to-back champion. The worst finish in his championship year was just one 16th-place finish.

Now entering his 11th season in the championship, this year poses a significant crossroad in the talented driver’s career. Having already shown a love for racing no matter the discipline or the location, Van Gisbergen regularly returns home to his native New Zealand to compete in NZ Touring Cars championship during the season and even ventures to the United States to pursue GT opportunities at iconic racetracks like Daytona.

Having won the championship already, there isn’t much keeping Van Gisbergen on Australian soil if the right opportunity presents itself abroad.

But while he competes on Australian soil he is still the most threatening driver in the 26-car field. With an unrivalled level of car control, genuine speed, strong qualifying ability and an unflappable race day attitude, Shane van Gisbergen is the ultimate Supercars pilot.

Whether he has the consistency to be a champion again is up to him.

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Best-case scenario
With Shane van Gisbergen the question isn’t whether he will win races – he will do that – it is whether he can salvage a high point-scoring result when he has those bad days and struggles in the car. This is what separates him and teammate Jamie Whincup. Hopefully he can ride them out in season 2018.

Worst-case scenario
A simple problem: he can’t minimise the damage from those bad days.

Shane van Gisbergen in Triple Eight garage

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Chaz Mostert – #55

Team: Tickford Racing
2017 results: 5th – 3 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 2nd

Chaz Mostert will be a series champion one day, and he is the dark horse to win the 2018 Supercars crown.

Mostert has already shown he can be a championship contender. Remember back to his incredible start to the 2015 championship season, when he trailed teammate Mark Winterbottom heading into Bathurst. Looking to defend his 2014 Bathurst victory, Mostert pushed too hard coming over Skyline and was a passenger in one of the nastiest crashes in the history of the category, derailing his championship quest in the process.

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After a rebuilding 2016, last year Mostert rediscovered his winning ability, finishing with three victories and the Enduro Cup title with co-driver Steve Owen. He went on to finish the season in fifth place, his best-ever result.

But in 2018 Mostert wants more. After an impressive opening stint in the Bathurst 12-hour in February, which was contested by many of his Supercar contemporaries, Mostert blitzed the field. If it wasn’t for reliability issues, he and his teammates had a legitimate shot at the outright victory.

Mostert has showcased his pure driving ability in previous seasons but has failed to show the consistency needed to be a champion.

Entering his sixth season in the top category, the 25-year-old seems to be more confident in his abilities than ever before. A mature driving style, surety behind the wheel and poise on tough days are the features needed to be a champion. Mostert is showing he possesses these qualities. He will be one to watch as he takes aim at the crown.

Best-case scenario
He improves his ability to continually record solid results even when it isn’t his day. These days are few and far between for Mostert, but when the pressure is on, he needs to be able to avoid any carnage and guide his Falcon towards the front of the grid.

Worst-case scenario
In his determination to be considered one of the best drivers in the category Chaz Mostert finds himself chasing many of his competitors rather than doing what he does best: good qualifying and solid racing. Chasing the car early in the weekend doesn’t bode well for his championship ambitions.

Chaz Mostert celebrates on the 2017 Gold Coast podium.

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

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Scott McLaughlin – #17

Team: DJR Team Penske
2017 results: 2nd – 8 wins, 16 poles
2018 prediction: Champion

Scott McLaughlin was 21 points or seven positions from completing one of the greatest seasons in Supercars history but, unfortunately for the young Kiwi, his impressive season stumbled at the final hurdle.

After dominating 2017 with a record 16 pole positions, eight race wins and another eight podiums to boot, McLaughlin was poised to walk away from the Newcastle 500 with the championship wreath.

But in a disastrous final race a contentious pit lane speed infraction resulted in the 24-year-old having to take a drive-through penalty, which saw him drop down the rankings while championship rival Jamie Whincup cruised at the front of the field.

The penalty saw McLaughlin forced to regain his composure as he needed to secure an 11th-place finish to win his maiden championship, but in his haste to past the backmarkers McLaughlin got caught up not once but twice, ruining his championship dream in the process.

But 2018 is the redemption season for the future king from Hamilton.

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If McLaughlin is able to continue his meteoric rise to the top of Australian motorsport with his incredible ability to put his DJR Team Penske FG X Falcon at the front of the grid, he will put himself in the best position to win races.

Simply, if he wins races, he will win the championship. He is the championship favourite for 2018.

Best-case scenario
He replicates his incredible 2017 season but avoids simple mistakes when they inevitably come up during the season. The championship is his.

Worst-case scenario
Anything other than the championship title is a disappointing season. This is the incredible standard McLaughlin has set.

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