Mercifully, another torturous preseason is almost over. And although every team has been training the house down all summer, it’s about this time each year that optimism begins to wane.

Teams start to realise that although they’re bigger, faster and stronger, they’ll still probably get smashed by the Storm. Part 4 of this season preview series takes a look at the four NRL teams who have a realistic shot at winning the Telstra Premiership.

Part 1: Four NRL coaches in the line of fire in 2018
Part 2: Four teams just making up the numbers in 2018
Part 3: Four NRL teams starting over in 2018

Sydney Roosters

Key additions: James Tedesco, Cooper Cronk, Reece Robinson
Key subtractions: Kane Evans, Aidan Guerra, Connor Watson, Michael Gordon

Reflections on 2017
Nick Politis always has a plan. And he always gets his man. From Brad Fittler to Phil Gould and Sonny Bill Williams, when it comes to landing the big fish, this poultry powerbroker gives Rex Hunt a run for his money. And just like his ability to keep star-studded sides under the salary cap, Uncle Nick’s knack for getting deals done right under the media’s nose is the stuff of footy folklore.

Last year was no exception. The Roosters had a high-quality side and performed admirably all season, but something was missing. They fielded the competition’s sixth-best attack (540 points at 22.5ppg), fifth-best defence (479 points at 19.9ppg), and secured second spot on the ladder, but they lacked the kind of champion player needed to compete with the likes of Melbourne.

So what did Politis do? He went out and signed two of them. Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco were the two top targets available on the open market, and despite not really needing either of them, the Roosters went and signed them both. Why? Because they can.

The signing of Cronk was a massive win for the Chooks, but it also marked a significant turning point for the club. Not only does it signify Politis pushing all of his chips to the centre of the table, but it also ended the Roosters’ ten-year relationship with halfback Mitchell Pearce. Politis has wasted plenty of time, money and hair follicles on Pearce over the years, and despite the close bond between the two, sometimes you just have to cut your losses and move on.

(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)

Outlook for 2018
The Sydney Roosters are the early favourites to win the premiership in 2018 and deservedly so. In fact, if they don’t win it all, their season will be viewed as a failure. Based on the squad they’ve assembled and the resources at their disposal, there can be no more excuses.

Looking through the Roosters’ roster, I struggled to find a weakness. Perhaps they’re a little thin in the back row, but when you’ve got blokes like Sio Siua Taukeiaho coming off the bench, those are first world problems. And while some might say that Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is an overrated liability, his physical style and intimidating presence are worth a couple of penalties per game.

Their backline is downright frightful – you won’t find a scarier pack of roosters south of the Dominican Republic. The idea of Tedesco, Blake Ferguson and Latrell Mitchell running lines off Cooper Cronk or latching onto his pinpoint bombs should strike fear into the hearts of defensive lines. And that’s without even mentioning Luke Keary, who had a career year in 2017.

It would be unfair to expect this side to click instantly. History shows that it takes time for teams to gel when influential players are introduced into the mix. But Cronk and Tedesco are professionals. They’re used to slotting into representative sides where the expectation is to hit the ground running.

With a full off-season to prepare, Trent Robinson will have his Roosters crowing in no time.

Predicted finish: third

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

North Queensland Cowboys

Key additions: Jordan McLean
Key subtractions: Patrick Kaufusi, Kalyn Ponga, Ray Thompson

Reflections on 2017
As a Newcastle Knights fan, I’m all too familiar with the idea of my team relying on a single player for success. I vividly remember that sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach every time Andrew Johns copped a heavy knock. If he got up, we were still a chance. If he stayed down, our season was all but over.

I’m sure Cowboys fans experienced a similar feeling after Origin 2 last year. Watching Johnathan Thurston writhing in pain as the training staff removed the strapping from his busted shoulder was hard to watch, even for a NSW supporter. His season was over, and in all likelihood – particularly after the loss of Matt Scott earlier in the year – so was North Queensland’s.

Nobody told Michael Morgan. To that point in his career, Morgan had always played Robin to JT’s Batman. He was the ultimate foil; the perfect wingman. But given an opportunity to take centre stage, Morgan led his Cowboys on a late-season surge the likes of which we haven’t seen since Parramatta in 2009.

In shades of Jarryd Hayne, Morgan singlehandedly dragged his team into the grand final, only to fall to the Melbourne Storm. Like weevils in your kitchen cupboards, Morgan was everywhere for the Cowboys during their improbable finals run, often handling the footy 4-5 times per set. It was an incredible individual performance.

Paul Green and his coaching staff also deserve plenty of credit for keeping this side focused. No one would have blamed the Cowboys for raising the white flag after losing their two most influential players, but Green doesn’t cop excuses. His ability to adapt the attacking style of his team to accentuate Morgan’s strengths has made him one of the most sought-after coaches in the NRL.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Outlook for 2018
North Queensland qualified for the grand final without Thurston and Scott. The return of the Cowboy co-captains coupled with the addition of Jordan McLean makes them a certainty to go one better in 2018. At least, that seems to be the general sentiment among the rugby league community.

But as the Canberra Raiders recently realised, it’s not that simple. Every season is unique. It’s not enough to just turn up with the same side, implement the same game plan, and expect a better result. And I’m not convinced that North Queensland’s squad is as bulletproof as it seems.

On the surface, it looks like the Cowboys have taken a class from the Nick Politis school of salary cap management. In Thurston, Scott, Morgan, Lachlan Coote, Jason Taumalolo and Coen Hess, coach Paul Green has assembled a star-studded squad. However, if you strip away the star power, this is a side with more questions than Andrew O’Keefe.

How will the ageing Thurston (34) and Scott (32) return from serious injuries in the twilight of their careers? How much do Scott Bolton and Gavin Cooper have left in the tank? How will Lachlan Coote’s uncertain contract status impact his performance on the field? How can you keep Taumalolo motivated? And how will rugby league’s latest million-dollar man handle the pressure of being the new face of the NRL?

Green will have prioritised the management of expectations over the off-season. He knows his players will have read the papers, and it’s his job to ensure that they don’t buy into their own hype. With leaders like Thurston and Scott, particularly in the former’s final NRL season, I don’t expect North Queensland to become complacent. They’ll be tough to beat in 2018.

Predicted finish: fourth

(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)

Cronulla Sharks

Key additions: Josh Dugan, Aaron Gray, Matt Moylan, Trent Hodkinson
Key subtractions: Jack Bird, James Maloney, Gerard Beale, Fa’amanu Brown, Chris Heighington, Sam Tagataese

Reflections on 2017:
Cronulla were widely tipped to be the first side in the NRL era to capture back-to-back premierships. But right from the outset, they never really seemed up to the task. The Sharks weren’t the same side without Ben Barba and Michael Ennis. The canned Cronulla custodian was the heartbeat of their attack, while Ennis provided outstanding service and leadership from dummy half.

Despite the loss of Ennis, Jayden Brailey’s superb rookie season ensured continuity in the forward pack and kept Cronulla’s defence ranked among the competition’s elite (17.6ppg – second in NRL). However, it was their attack that suffered the most. During their grand final winning season in 2016, the Sharks posted 580 points (24.2ppg). In the absence of Ennis and Barba, that number plummeted to 490 points (20.4ppg), a drop of almost four per game.

Valentine Holmes was often made the scapegoat for this dramatic dip in production, but it wasn’t really his fault. Holmes and Barba have vastly contrasting styles and skillsets, yet coach Shane Flanagan attempted to use them in a similar way. As a result, Holmes’ lack of ball-playing ability was unfairly targeted as a major reason for Cronulla’s attacking malaise.

Perhaps a more fitting scapegoat would be James Maloney. Tim Gore’s soppy mash note aside, most believe Maloney went off the boil last season. Defence and discipline remained an issue, while his attack suffered without Barba around to provide the polish. Maloney helped bring a maiden premiership to the Shire, but it was the right move to let him leave.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Outlook for 2018
Of all the sides in the NRL, I am most excited about the new signings for the Cronulla Sharks. They had by far and away the strongest off-season from a player recruitment perspective.

Shane Flanagan should be charged with grand larceny for his daylight robbery of Phil Gould. More lopsided than a Cameron McInnes smile, the exchange of Matt Moylan for James Maloney was a boon for the Sharks and a big loss for the Panthers. Moylan brings with him the versatility to play anywhere along the Cronulla backline, and without the burden of captaincy, expect him to have a massive year.

Josh Dugan was an equally important signing. Able to play at a representative level at both fullback and centre, the thirsty former Dragon gives Flanagan enviable backline flexibility. Add in Aaron Gray and the experienced Trent Hodkinson, and the Sharks now boast the most well-rounded roster in the competition.

The strength of this side remains the forward pack. Wade Graham and Andrew Fifita are among the competition’s best at their respective positions, Jayden Brailey is a budding superstar, and despite now qualifying for superannuation, Paul Gallen and Luke Lewis are still playing at a high level.

Cronulla might not blow teams off the park like the Storm or Roosters, but with these lumps of granite occupying the middle of the field, they’ll be the hardest team to beat in 2018.

Predicted finish: second

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Melbourne Storm

Key additions: Ryan Hoffman, Sam Kasiano, Patrick Kaufusi
Key subtractions: Cooper Cronk, Tohu Harris, Jordan McLean

Reflections on 2017
In the 25 years that I’ve been following rugby league, the Storm’s 2017 campaign is as close as I’ve witnessed to perfection. Melbourne had the competition’s most potent attack (715 points at 29.8ppg) and its stingiest defence (358 points at 14.9ppg). In losing only four games all season, the Storm captured the minor premiership and followed it up by winning the major one. And if we’re honest, they were rarely troubled all season.

Individually, their squad was phenomenal. Captain Cameron Smith channelled his inner Benjamin Button to reel off another Dally M winning season at the ripe old age of 34, Billy Slater returned from two seasons out of the game without missing a beat, and Cooper Cronk’s robotic precision confirmed the rumour that he is, in fact, a rugby league machine.

Outside of their superstars, the Storm had more unsung heroes than an Army Reserves commercial. From Dale Finucane to Felise Kaufusi and Tim Glasby, Melbourne were blessed with consistently strong contributors across the park. And how about those wingers? Unheard of and unwanted only two years earlier, Josh Addo-Car and Suliasi Vunivalu combined for an astonishing 46 tries and 56 line breaks.

The job Craig Bellamy does with the Melbourne Storm is often overlooked. People love to attribute his success to the company he keeps rather than his coaching ability. But what he achieved in 2017 was pure magic, the sort of stuff that would make David Blain’s jaw drop. Give credit where it’s due, and recognise Bellamy for a near perfect season.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Outlook for 2018
Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock or living in Melbourne over the summer, you’ll know that the number one challenge facing the Storm this season is replacing Cooper Cronk. After 14 seasons in purple, the love-sick Queenslander has departed his comfortable cloister for the bright lights of Bondi. So how will Melbourne fare without one the best halfbacks of the modern era?

Pretty well, actually. For all of his success and adulation, Cronk is a system player. Probably the greatest system player the game has ever seen, but a system player all the same. Rather than reacting to what’s in front of him, Cronk conducts a meticulously orchestrated game plan. And one of the benefits of playing under Bellamy for his entire career is that Cronk’s had the opportunity to master every wrinkle and nuance of this intricate attack.

While Cronk’s departure was disappointing, it wasn’t entirely unexpected. In fact, Bellamy has invested years into cultivating a Cooper-clone. The outstanding performance of Brodie Croft in relief of Cronk wasn’t a mere coincidence. Croft, among others, has spent years learning Bellamy’s system.

They’ve had the benefit of observing and absorbing the professional manner in which the halfback handles his preparation and recovery. Cronk will be a massive loss, but one that Melbourne is prepared for.

As they do almost every season, the Storm are also facing the loss of several key players to other clubs. This year it was Tohu Harris and Jordan McLean who jumped ship, turning their success at Melbourne into lucrative deals elsewhere.

And while in previous seasons I have predicted the demise of the Storm based on player departures and ageing superstars, they just keep winning. So why fight it?

Predicted finish: first