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Flemington Super Saturday: Group 1 tips and previews

A day out at Flemington (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Expert
7th March, 2018
12

It’s Super Saturday at Flemington, where the two biggest races of the Melbourne autumn carnival take place.

The Australian Cup doesn’t quite have the profile of its spring equivalent the Cox Plate, but it is the weight-for-age championship of Victoria for this time of year, and the list of winners is distinguished.

The Newmarket is one of the top three handicaps in Australian racing, the sprinting equivalent of the Melbourne Cup for stayers or the Doncaster for milers, and it is rich with history.

Australian Cup
The Australian Cup hasn’t exactly assembled a crack field this year, which is a surprise when you’d think many would avoid Winx up north, but it speaks to a lack of depth in the WFA ranks outside the superstar mare.

Gailo Chop is the one to beat, unbeaten in two starts this prep, including a comfortable win in the Peter Young Stakes last time out, which is the traditional lead-up race.

He’s won three WFA races in this country, including a Mackinnon Stakes and Caulfield Stakes at Group 1 level over 2000m, and in each one he’s controlled the race from the front. When he’s right, he has a high cruising speed and enough kick to keep going.

Melbourne Cup Day generic

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Single Gaze could have been the inspiration for the phrase ‘bonny mare’, and is coming off a second to Gailo Chop in the Peter Young. Five times she has run top five in Group 1s this season, including a second in the Caulfield Cup, and she seems to improve between each preparation which is a credit to her Canberra trainer Nick Olive.

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She also likes to make her own luck up near the front of the field, especially when she gets to the middle distances, and she will run her usual honest race from a box seat position. She’s due to win, and a deserved victory it would be.

Hartnell was third in the Peter Young, a bit disappointing, and is becoming something of an enigma. It’s clear that he is still a very good horse, but no longer the force he was. This is the third preparation in a row now where his best performance was arguably his first. It seems he needs to be away from the track to realise how much he misses it.

But the last time Hartnell saw Flemington 2000m, he produced the performance of his career when bolting in the Turnbull Stakes, so perhaps we shouldn’t write him off just yet.

Stablemates Ventura Storm and Harlem, from Team Hayes, were also-rans in the Peter Young, as was Lord Fandango who was too bad to be true. Ventura Storm ran second in the Turnbull Stakes last year to Winx, beating Humidor, so has the ability to contend. Harlem seems to lack the class or consistency, while Lord Fandango is probably reaching a bit high on his way to something like the Sydney Cup.

Lloyd Williams has three runners, each a tempting proposition with a chance in their own right.

Almandin is the senior figure, a Melbourne Cup winner that has avoided Group 1 competition outside the race that stops a nation in his time here, so we don’t quite know how he’s going to measure up. His two 2000m runs this season, both with big weights in lesser grade, suggest he has something to offer.

Almandin

(AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)

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Homesman beat Almandin when both were first-up last start, worrying his more fancied stablemate out of it as he out-toughed him to the line. Admittedly Homesman was in receipt of a 3.5kg weight advantage there, a luxury he doesn’t have here, but the stable expected him to take plenty of improvement from the run, and his overseas Group 1 credentials are sound.

The Taj Mahal improved several lengths with each run in the spring, finishing off his campaign with a fourth in the Mackinnon to Tosen Stardom, and a dominant win in the Sandown Classic. He looks to have the makings of a top-liner, and if he has improved again between preps is almost the one to beat.

There are three other runners in the race, and they’ve come from far and wide.

Ambitious is a tier two Japanese import having his first run in the country, for Anthony Freedman. He tends to run well first-up, and has solid form at 2000m, but this assignment is, well, ambitious.

Devise is coming off a Group 1 win in New Zealand, and also placed behind Bonneval in the New Zealand Oaks as a three year old. She’d want to be good.

Supply and Demand is down from Sydney for Gai Waterhouse, and is a horse typical of the stable. He’ll run honestly, but has never done anything to suggest he could do more than pick up a minor cheque here.

There is a little bit of speed in the race. Gailo Chop will cross from barrier 10 and go forward. Supply and Demand jumps from 9 and will do the same. The Taj Mahal and Homesman have both shown they can be right on the speed, and Single Gaze wants to be handy. Hartnell is often not far away either.

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Selections: 1.Single Gaze 2.The Taj Mahal 3.Gailo Chop 4.Homesman

Newmarket Handicap
This year’s Newmarket has seen compressed weights at the bottom end, with the number three saddlecloth carrying only 52.5kgs. It’s a shame connections of Redzel have taken the weak option of skipping the race.

Merchant Navy is the deserved favourite, his only go down the famous Flemington ‘straight six’ the run of the spring in winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes. He’s unbeaten at 1200m, and returned in fine style when disadvantaged at the weights in the Rubiton but only just falling short.

Booker and Catchy are the other three year olds in the race, both fillies coming off good runs in the Oakleigh Plate. Catchy beat Booker by a length in the Danehill over this track and distance in the spring, when both were on a Thousand Guineas path. Set for sprint races now, there’s not much between them.

Up the top of the weights is Redkirk Warrior, who has made the Flemington straight his own in the last 12 months. He won the Newmarket last year, and backed it up with a win in the Bobbie Lewis in the spring, before winning the Lightning Stakes last start. All of those wins were first-up though, which appears to be the key to him, so he’s a risk on that basis.

Brave Smash is something of an enigmatic galloper, and the feeling is that Darren Weir is still working him out. He’s a head away from being a dual Group 1 winner this prep, and his third in The Everest from the spring is plenty to suggest he can win this.

There are a number of inconsistent horses in this race that can all do something on their day, but you never know when that day is going to be.

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2017 Melbourne Cup Generic

(Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images for the VRC)

Lord of the Sky is a good straight horse, but tends to pick and choose his moments. He can’t be trusted. Stablemate Missrock is in the same boat, but both have shown their quality at various stages.

So Si Bon has pecked around the edges of a few Group 1s, but has thrown in plenty of duck eggs too. Connections had enough and took him away from Robbie Laing and into the care of David Hayes.

Supido has always had a touch of quality, and almost won a Goodwood Handicap at his ninth start, back in May 2016. He’s only had six starts in the ensuing 21 months, mixing his form at each run. His first-up fourth in the Lightning, beaten a length and a half but dropping 6kg’s from it, says he’s ready.

Rich Charm is the opposite of these horses, super genuine in everything he does. The money said he wasn’t ready to fire first-up in the Rubiton, but he should be now and is more than capable of winning.

There’s a case for Perth horse Rock Magic, certainly. Five of his last six runs have been at Group 1 WFA, where he has been beaten by an average of 2.5 lengths. He’s crying out for handicap conditions, and must be included in everything at odds.

Fastnet Tempest is the wildcard. He started his career overseas and is more known as a miler or middle distance horse, but is now trying to claim the Newmarket first-up for Team Hayes. Sound familiar? That’s because it also describes Redkirk Warrior, who did exactly that last year.

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The Hayes camp are also represented by Thronum, who is on the up big time. A win in the Australia Stakes, beating Brave Smash, was followed by being one of many in the blanket finish behind Hartnell in the Orr. He’s a player.

Almandin ridden by jockey Kerrin McEvoy leads the field to win the $6million Melbourne Cup, followed by Heartbreak City, at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Tuesday. Nov. 1, 2016

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Lucky Liberty and Ken’s Dream ran the quinella in a benchmark 90 last start, and are handy sprinters, but this looks a bit rich. That said, they filled the placings behind Rich Charm at Caulfield one day last year, which ties them in, but that horse has gone ahead in leaps and bounds since then, while they’ve pretty much stayed at their level.

It’s an incredibly open race with a host of chances, as a great handicap should be, and you can barely find a handful that you’d say can’t win.

Selections: 1.Rock Magic 2.Rich Charm 3.Supido 4.Thronum

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