It’s never easy picking a winner in the early round of the NRL, however, here I look for some good bets for Round 1.
Starting tonight using a 20 unit bank.
1. Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels at Pepper Stadium
5 Unit bet – Sweet Spot (Margin Between Penrith +10.5 and Parramatta +10.5) at $1.75
I just can’t see either side getting beaten by more than 10 points here.
Derby games between these two are generally always really tight affairs and, with both sides at close to full strength, I see this as a very even contest with the result being decided in the final 10 minutes.
2. St George Illawarra Dragons v Brisbane Broncos at Jubilee Stadium
4 Unit bet – Sweet Spot (Dragons +8.5 and Brisbane +11.5) at $1.75
This is going to be a really close game, with defence getting on top. I can’t see either team winning by more than a try, with a night game usually having slippery conditions.
Both sides will perhaps play a little more conservatively being Round 1, and prioritise ball control over ball movement.
3. Newcastle Knights v Manly Sea Eagles at Hunter Stadium
4 Unit bet – Manly to Win at $1.90
I like Manly here as I think there is a bit of pressure on the Knights, with all their new signings, in front of what is sure to be a huge crowd at Hunter Stadium.
Manly have been flying under the radar this pre-season, and I think their established combinations mean they might be able to test out the Knights defensively here and win a shootout.
4. Multi
3 Unit bet – at $3.58
– Cronulla Sharks +5.5 at $1.90
– South Sydney Rabbitohs to Win at $1.45
– Sydney Roosters to Win at $1.30
I can’t see the Roosters being rolled by a Tigers’ side that looks to lack talent on paper. The Warriors have a terrible record against Souths, having lost their past six, as well as being zero from eight over in Perth, so I think Souths are morals.
The Sharks I give a big chance of winning, with the Cowboys having a few players coming off long injury spells, and Lachlan Coote missing at fullback, so I really like the 5.5 start.
5. North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla Sharks
2 Unit bet – Cronulla Sharks to Win at $2.60
I think the Cowboys are a little vulnerable here missing Lachlan Coote at fullback and with Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott both first up from long-term injuries. The Sharks will also be looking for revenge after the Cowboys shocked them in the finals last season.
6. Canterbury Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm @ Perth Stadium
2 Unit bet – Bulldogs +6.5 at $1.90
The Bulldogs played the Storm in Round 1 last year and narrowly went down by six points. I think this game might follow a similar path.
The Storm are missing Billy Slater – and that’s a huge loss. The Storm have also had a much-shortened pre-season, while the Bulldogs will surely be fired up to impress their new coach.
I’m not convinced the Dogs will win, however, I think it’s a big start.
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