The AFL season is almost upon us, so let’s look through the evidence and work out just who will be holding up the cup come season’s end.

Let’s start with the ‘easy’ one to predict; the AFLW.

I say easy because we have a preponderance of evidence pointing towards a conclusion that’s just three weeks away at this point.

But, just like the men’s version, the evidence seems to point completely different directions from week to week. Carlton was atop the ladder after week two and hasn’t won since. Adelaide was dead after week two, and now sit comfortably above the Blues at 3-2, within striking distance of a return trip to the grand final.

In Round 4, an unbeatable Melbourne hosted a winless Collingwood so, of course, the Magpies won by 34 points.

Looking at the Round 5 standings, let’s consider what’s left for each team to make the final.

Western Bulldogs: 4-1-0, 177%, rating of 62.2. Last two games: at GWS, v Melbourne
Plays at GWS and hosts Melbourne – neither are gimmes, but the Dogs will be favoured in both. One win guarantees a spot in finals, and that percentage virtually guarantees hosting it.

Even if they were to lose both, somehow, they might still make it with a loss from any three of the four clubs behind them. Pencil them in for the grand final.

Brisbane: 3-2-0, 122%, rating of 55.7. Last two games: v Collingwood, at GWS
Favored in both games. The Lions should end up 5-2 with a percentage above 120, which in almost every scenario imaginable would be enough to make finals. Even though Melbourne’s playing better, it’s Brisbane’s spot to lose.

Melbourne: 3-2-0, 103%, rating of 52.0. Last two games: at Carlton, at Western Bulldogs
Favored big next week, but they must win something like 50-11 to catch Lions’ percentage.

Must win the finale at Whitten Oval to go 5-2 and hope they can get a percentage above Brisbane’s – or that the Magpies or Giants upset the Lions. Not unreasonable, but I’ll bet Lions at Dogs instead.

GWS Giants: 2-2-1, 103%, rating of 44.8. Last two games: v Western Bulldogs, v Brisbane
The Giants have more control over their own destiny than Adelaide does because of who they play. If they win both games, they pass Brisbane and only need the Demons to lose once, and stay ahead of the Crows’ percentage, to make finals.

Adelaide: 2-2-1, 99%, rating of 55.7. Last two games: v Fremantle, at Collingwood
Winning out is an absolute must. Then, Brisbane and Melbourne must each lose once, and GWS must either lose or be passed on percentage – they’re only one goal ahead of the Crows, though.

Fremantle: 2-3-0, 80%, rating of 41.9. Last two games: at Adelaide, v Carlton
Win out. Brisbane must really lose two – or one if Freo makes up ten goals on them (no).

Melbourne must lose two – or one by five goals, and the Giants must lose to the Western Bulldogs.

Possible. Not very likely, but possible.

Carlton: 2-3-0, 51%, rating of 39.0. Last two games: v Melbourne, at Fremantle
Win out. Brisbane and Melbourne must both lost twice. GWS and Adelaide must lose once. Given the combination of opponents, it’s at least possible in theory.

Given the way Carlton’s played the last three games, it’s inconceivable.

Collingwood: 1-4-0, 96%, rating of 48.7. Last two games: at Brisbane, v. AdelaideIt was almost possible! If it weren’t for the fact that GWS hosts Brisbane in Round 7, it would have been possible for all four teams with only two losses to lose both of their games, and allow the Magpies to maybe accumulate percentage to overtake them all at 3-4-0 and be in position for that second finals spot.

But then, Carlton and Freo would’ve won two each and stayed ahead of the Pies. Never mind.

Before moving on, I have a JLT scoring question.

Let’s say the final siren sounds when the Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli has the ball in hand after a mark just outside the 50. Hawthorn leads by eight points, but with super-goals being worth nine, the Hawks could lose if the Bont makes the kick after the siren.

What’s to stop Luke Breust from fouling him and invoking a 50-metre penalty, thereby making it a six-point goal and negating the chance for the Bulldogs to win? Can they refuse the penalty? Or is this a flaw in the system that isn’t worth caring about in the pre-season?

Alright, let’s do the foolish prognosticating: imagining the men’s outcomes seven months in advance.

First of all, let’s see what the people who make money doing this kind of thing say. The oddsmakers are offering the lowest odds for Sydney, closely followed by Adelaide. The next four teams on their list, depending on which list you’re looking at, are Geelong, the Giants, Richmond and Port Adelaide.

The seventh and eighth place teams are generally Melbourne and Essendon, and usually in that order.

Below that, there are two groups of also-rans. The ‘maybe’ group are Collingwood, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and West Coast. The ‘not a chance’ group includes Carlton, Brisbane, the Kangaroos and the Suns. Fremantle usually sits in the no-man’s land in between.

Not an unreasonable grouping. If you look at ELO-Following Football ratings, here’s the only significant differences – Richmond is up there with the Swans and Crows, and you don’t see Melbourne and Essendon as standing out from the five teams grouped immediately below them.

It’s not hard to argue that, if you expect Richmond to excel in 2018 the way they did in 2017, you were probably surprised that the Bulldogs didn’t make finals last year, too. (Like the system did. Oops.)

But have the Dons and Dees separated themselves from the pack to be significantly favoured over the six teams most often considered finals contenders?

The most reliable indicator of a midlevel team moving up the following year is an abnormally high percentage compared to its win-loss record.

None of these contenders had a particularly out-of-line number either direction, but Collingwood was close to 100% despite a 9-12-1 record, so that’s as close to above-average as we saw. Probably not enough by itself to make them the most likely candidate for finals, however.

Their duplicate opponents, though, are Carlton, Richmond, Essendon (all six games at the MCG!), Brisbane, and Fremantle. A 13th-place schedule could be a huge help for them this year, especially if three of their last five games are the Kangaroos, Lions, and Dockers!

Six of their first eight games, including their first two ‘road’ games, are all at the MCG, so they could get off to a great start.

Finally, their ELO-FF ratings are actually slightly higher than all of their competitors for those last two September spots. I’m not particularly a Magpie fan, but I’m putting them in my top eight this season.

I’m content to say Sydney, Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Port, and Geelong are the obvious six for six of the finals spots – which means that it’s an absolute certainty that at least one of those six will fall from grace!

Remember, in the 24-year history of the eight-team finals, there’s never been fewer than two changes from one year’s finalists to the next! The chances of all six staying in finals this season are almost zero. So, which one is the most likely to drop out?

Adelaide seems the least likely to fall. Besides having a team on the rise, and being arguably the general public’s favourite, their roster places first on every one of the metrics for this season.

Port Adelaide picked up a ton of talent over the off-season in Steven Motlop, Tom Rockliff, Lindsay Thomas and Jack Watts. It’s hard to see a pretty average schedule throwing this team for a loop and preventing them from at least reaching last year’s achievements.

Oh, and I’ll start the petition to hold the grand final in Adelaide Oval if they both make it there.

Sydney showed signs of frailty last year in March and April, and this season’s opening six could also put a terrible start to their campaign; at West Coast for the grand opening of Optus, when the Eagles will be highly motivated, v Port Adelaide, v GWS, Western Bulldogs at Etihad, v Adelaide, and at Geelong.

I’m telling you a record of 1-5 is feasible before they see a string six of non-finalists starting in May. But while that may prevent a double chance, as it did last year, they should still make finals comfortably.

GWS has lost a ton of talent, but they’ve got a ton more behind them. My question would be; did their attitude of entitlement leave with those players, or are they still going to play some games like they can mail it in on talent alone?

If it’s the latter, they don’t have the horses to survive the season and make September.

Richmond has a similar question to answer – how do they convert from being the underdog to being the hunted? The advantage they have compared to last year’s Bulldogs is that the Tigers really were a top three team last year, whereas the Dogs were merely a seventh-place team that made a fantastic run.

They couldn’t afford to play any less intensely. The signs so far for the Tigers – and the Giants, for that matter – are that they understand the hazards facing them and are at least starting pre-season on the correct foot.

That leaves Geelong. Geelong only has one new part, but how Ablett fits in with Dangerwood is the big question.

There were times last year when the Cats simply looked too slow for the game in 2017 and, while their newbies helped overcome that on several occasions, it’s hard to imagine adding an almost 34-year-old injury-prone superstar isn’t going to exacerbate that issue.

Their ELO-FF rating is already closer to the middle than the top and their percentage of 117% was the lowest for any top two team in ten years. Geelong is my pick to fall from the top eight.

So, who will the other two teams in finals be? Let’s look at the year-by-year patterns.

On the way up: Essendon. It’s hard to tell, given what they’ve been through. But it’s easy to give them the feel of upward bound because they’ve survived the ramifications of the drug scandal half-a-decade old.

On the rebound: Fremantle. If Nat Fyfe 2018 is anything like Nat Fyfe 2015, if Michael Walters and Bradley Hill 2018 are like the 2017 models and if Fremantle Nathan Wilson is as good as GWS Nathan Wilson, the Dockers may indeed be closer to three years ago than the last two years.

On the way down: Hawthorn. Sorry, Alastair. You are the best coach I’ve ever seen. But you don’t have an AFL championship team anymore and, after last year, your uniforms don’t hold the fear for your opponents that they did. Next.

On the way down: West Coast. Second to sixth to a miracle eighth – and a miracle semi-final. Don’t expect another miracle. Next.

On the way… um: St Kilda. Seemed destined to make finals in 2017 – they had gone from the wooden spoon in 2014 to 14th the next year to ninth the previous year. And yet they never felt like a threat.

On the way up?: Melbourne. Okay, I get it. 17th to 13th to 11th to ninth. The natural progression demands that they move up into a finals position in 2018. But then, well, see St Kilda.

I’m taking Essendon and Fremantle to fill out the eight this season. Melbourne and St Kilda could very well become the new perennial bridesmaids – until one of them shows the killer instinct when it matters, like the Tigers did, I’m not jumping on board.

On the other hand, I love what I see happening in Brisbane – I’m expecting big things from them this season. Not top eight big – the league’s got too many good teams for that kind of jump – but maybe a 12th place big?

If Luke Hodge is the kind of positive influence that he appears to be from a distance, and if the AFLX culture shift is to be believed, they could win ten games.

Remember, even in last they won five last year, and two more wins would’ve had them in 15th, halfway there.

Gold Coast has the schedule from hell this season – and they weren’t going to be very good to begin with. Two wins is not too low a prediction.

I wish I could be more optimistic – I love what I’m hearing from Dew’s camp. But the schedule for the young team is too daunting.

So, let’s put this all together;
1st – Adelaide
2nd – Port Adelaide
3rd – Richmond
4th – GWS Giants
5th – Sydney
6th – Essendon
7th – Collingwood
8th – Fremantle
9th – Melbourne
10th – Geelong
11th – St Kilda
12th – Brisbane
13th – Western Bulldogs
14th – Hawthorn
15th – West Coast
16th – Carlton
17th – North Melbourne
18th – Gold Coast

Check this space in August. I’ll own up to my mistakes because I guarantee my work; “We Promise Mistakes Or Your Money Back!”