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2018 AFL Women's season: Round 7 preview

The Bulldogs. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Roar Guru
14th March, 2018
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The stage is set for an exciting finish to the second AFL Women’s season, with up to five teams still in the running for a grand final berth and with the wooden spoon also set to be decided as well.

Saturday night’s clash between the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne – the two pioneers of AFL Women’s – is a virtual preliminary final, with the winner to play in the grand final and thus guarantee that it will be played in Melbourne for the first time.

The GWS Giants are the other side in the box seat to reach the grand final; a win over the Brisbane Lions will just about get them there, but they will also have to pray that the Adelaide Crows don’t beat Collingwood by a significant margin on Sunday.

The wooden spoon will also be decided between Fremantle and Carlton, but if that match ends in a draw, the Pies will be playing to avoid the league’s most unwanted award in their match against the Crows.

Strap yourselves in and enjoy reading the Round 7 preview.

GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions
It’s all or nothing for the GWS Giants now.

Three wins and a draw in their past month of football see them sit in third place on the ladder with one round to go, and the side will be going all out in their bid to reach the grand final just 12 months after claiming the inaugural AFLW wooden spoon.

The Giants, who have been dubbed ‘Dad’s Army’, couldn’t have been more impressive than it was last Saturday night when they overcame a slow start to defeat the ladder-leading Western Bulldogs by 18 points in Canberra.

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Captain Amanda Farrugia and co-captain Alicia Eva both kicked their first goals in Giants colours, while first-year players Cora Staunton and Courtney Gum continued to impress despite both being 36 years old.

The side also had six players named in the AFLW’s team of the week: the aforementioned four players as well as Nicola Barr and ruckwoman Erin McKinnon, who in Round 5 racked up an AFLW-record 39 hit-outs.

There had been little expectations for the club this season after they finished last in 2017, but with each passing result they have grown to the point where they could be playing for the flag next Saturday afternoon.

All they need to do is to beat the Brisbane Lions at home this Friday night and a grand final berth will be theirs. Anything less and they will miss out.

One advantage up their sleeve is that the Giants did beat the Lions in a practice match in Sydney in January, winning by 50 points in a match played over five quarters in stifling heat.

GWS Giants

(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)

The Lions’ chances of returning to the decider were significantly dented when they were upset by the previously last-placed Collingwood at home last Saturday afternoon, leaving their hopes in massive jeopardy.

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In testing conditions the Lions conceded four goals in the opening quarter, and while they kicked two themselves, they would not kick another major until the final quarter, by which point the damage was already done.

They must now beat the Giants this Friday night and then pray that both Melbourne and the Adelaide Crows lose their respective matches against the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood to have any chance of playing for the flag next Saturday afternoon.

But with everything to play for and with the home ground advantage and some impressive form over the past month, the Giants should take the points and secure a grand final date against either the Dogs or Dees.

Prediction: GWS Giants by 15 points.

Jess Wuetschner

(Jono Searle/Getty Images)

Fremantle vs Carlton
In contrast to the other three matches, which all feature at least one team still in the running to reach the grand final, the match between Fremantle and Carlton will almost certainly decide which team claims the wooden spoon.

Both the Dockers and Blues have claimed just two wins each, but while the Dockers have been competitive in most of their matches, the same can’t be said for Carlton, who have lost their past four matches after losing captain Brianna Davey to a serious knee injury against GWS in Round 2.

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Damien Keeping’s side conceded six goals in the first quarter against Melbourne last week, but to their credit they would compete for the remainder of the match and prevent the Dees from improving their all-important percentage, which for them will come into play in the final round.

Still, the Blues have the worst percentage of any team in the league (47.9 per cent) and are ranked last in both attack and defence despite the off-season acquisition of former Brisbane Lions forward Tayla Harris.

Tayla Harris

(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

The Dockers, on the other hand, fell short of an upset against the Adelaide Crows despite the best efforts of Dana Hooker, who earnt 20 possessions. It was their third straight loss and leaves them second-last on the ladder.

One advantage Michelle Cowan’s side will have, though, is the fact that they are playing at home, where they are two from three in 2018 (one win each at Optus Stadium and Fremantle Oval and a loss to GWS at the latter ground).

There is the remote chance that both Fremantle or Carlton may not finish last after all. If the two sides contest a draw and Collingwood loses to the Adelaide Crows on Sunday, the Pies will finish last.

At home the Dockers should take the points and thus sentence Carlton to the wooden spoon.

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Prediction: Fremantle by 20 points.

Ebony Antonio

(Will Russell/Getty Images)

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
Without doubt this is the match of the round.

In contrast to the wooden spoon decider to be played earlier in the day, the second match will see two of the pioneers of women’s football, the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne, go head to head at the Whitten Oval to see which team advances to next Saturday’s AFL Women’s grand final.

Despite significant injuries to several key players, including Daria Bannister and Isabel Huntington within the first two rounds, the Bulldogs have proven to be the form team of the competition, the 279 points they have scored being the most of any team after six rounds.

The Dees are next best with 247 points, meaning this clash will pit two of the competition’s best-attacking sides against each other, making for a potentially high-scoring match in which both sides will be expected to give their all, especially with so much at stake.

The Dogs had a chance to lock up a grand final berth with one round to spare last Saturday night but could not capitalise on a strong first quarter, going down to the GWS Giants by 18 points in Canberra.

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They should get captain Katie Brennan back from an ankle injury for the clash against the Dees, who by contrast set up their win over Carlton with a six-goal opening quarter.

Katie Brennan of the Western Bulldogs

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Just as it seemed that the Dees would build their percentage, they were instead kept honest for the last three quarters by the last-placed Blues, costing them the chance to close the gap on the top-placed Dogs.

Significantly, they kicked just 1.4 (10) after half-time.

Sadly, though, Melissa Hickey will take no further part in this season after she suffered the dreaded ACL injury against the Blues, but still the club will be relying on their ‘big three’ of captain Daisy Pearce, Karen Paxman and Elise O’Dea to get them across the line this Saturday night.

It’s a match worthy of a preliminary final, and I have the Dogs getting home by the barest of margins.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by one point.

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Alyssa Mifsud Melbourne Demons AFLW

(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Collingwood vs Adelaide Crows
By the time the Adelaide Crows take to Olympic Park Oval on Sunday, they will know what the equation is if they are to reach the grand final for the second consecutive year.

The Crows remain alive in their premiership defence after edging out Fremantle by four points in Darwin last Friday night, the result coming thanks to a three-goal haul from co-captain Erin Phillips.

But while they remain a chance of reaching the decider, they must first sweat on how the GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions match unfolds on the Friday night, two days before they take on the Pies in Melbourne.

The result of that match on Friday night will prove crucial to the Crows’ chances come Sunday afternoon. If the Giants win, the Crows must win by a significant margin to overtake the Giants on percentage. If the Lions win, the margin will not matter.

There is also the remote chance that they could even host the decider, but they would have to first pray for a Giants loss, then for the Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne match to end in a draw and, finally, to thrash the Pies by an unlikely record margin.

As mentioned above, while the Dogs vs Dees match will decide the minor premiership and thus a grand final berth, home ground advantage will not matter, with the AFL all but set to lock in Ikon Park (neither side are home tenants) as the venue for next Saturday’s decider.

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Ruth Wallace

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

Meanwhile, Collingwood will be looking to finish their season on a high after upsetting the Brisbane Lions on the road last week.

Without suspended captain Steph Choicci the Pies led from start to finish to move off the bottom of the ladder and into sixth position, leaving Fremantle and Carlton to fight it out for the wooden spoon on Saturday.

Their win was set up by a four-goal opening quarter as well as three majors each to forwards Christina Bernardi and Moana Hope, who was dropped earlier this year after showing little impact against Carlton in Round 1.

There is the remote chance that they could enter their clash against the Crows last – if, and only if, the Dockers vs Blues clash ends in a draw.

That would then give the Pies something to play for, and they would love nothing more than not only to deny the Crows a grand final berth but to also sentence their bitter rivals to finish last if they haven’t already.

But while the Pies would love to finish their season on a high in front of their home fans, the Crows, with everything to play for, should snare the points.

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Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 14 points.

Mo Hope

(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

The grand final equation
If the GWS Giants beat the Brisbane Lions, they will move into second place on the ladder and will stay there unless the Adelaide Crows thrash Collingwood by a huge margin, in which case the Crows will overtake the Giants on percentage.

If the Giants lose, they will miss out on a grand final berth as Brisbane will overtake them on the ladder. This will give the Crows a golden chance to snare the second grand final berth by beating the Pies.

For the Lions to reach the grand final they must thrash the Giants on Friday night, hope Melbourne gets thrashed by the Western Bulldogs 24 hours later and then pray that Adelaide gets beaten by Collingwood on Sunday.

If the GWS Giants versus Brisbane Lions match ends in a draw:

  • the Brisbane Lions will miss out;
  • the Adelaide Crows will have the chance to overtake them – but they must first hope for an outright result in the Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne match on Saturday night – by beating Collingwood on Sunday; and
  • the Giants will advance if Melbourne loses by roughly 20 points or more and the Adelaide Crows are beaten by Collingwood.
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The winner of the Dogs vs Dees match will finish first and therefore earn hosting rights for the grand final, but if that match ends in a draw:

  • the Giants must win by a significant margin against the Lions, which would see them play the Bulldogs in the grand final because the Dogs have a superior percentage to the Dees;
  • the Crows must pray for a Giants loss to or draw with the Lions and then to thrash Collingwood by a record margin to get in; and
  • if both the Giants and Crows lose, it will remain a Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne grand final as the Lions would finish third.

The wooden spoon equation
The loser of the Fremantle vs Carlton clash will finish last and therefore claim the number one pick for the AFLW draft to be held later this year.

If that match ends in a draw, Collingwood will be playing to avoid the wooden spoon when it faces the Adelaide Crows. If the Pies lose, they will finish last, otherwise Carlton will do so on percentage.

My match predictions
Grand final: Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants.
Wooden spoon: Carlton Blues.

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