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The first month report card for 2018

19th March, 2018
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The Rebels. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Expert
19th March, 2018
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Regular readers over the last few Super Rugby seasons would know I don’t worry about waiting for the end of the season to look back over the pre-season predictions.

Sadly, while that may sound like a noble cause, it turns out that most predictions don’t need the full season to unravel.

Speaking of, here are said final finish predictions for this season from a month ago.

South Africa: Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Sharks, Bulls.
New Zealand: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs, Highlanders.
Australia: Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels, Reds, Sunwolves.

I’m already happy to concede I’ve got plenty of finishing orders out of whack – most of them, actually – but I’m also claiming more than a few moral victories along the way.

I was right in suspecting the Lions and Stormers were the standouts in South Africa, though the Stormers are again showing an allergy to any Super Rugby ground that isn’t Newlands. I think they will still finish in the top half, though, and if you win all your home games, then that job is half done already.

The Lions look as near certainties already to top the conference as the Sharks, Bulls and Jaguares look thoroughly unlikely to trouble them at all. “I’m entirely unenthused about the Bulls, the Sharks still look too inconsistent to me to be considered a side that can press for the finals, and I think same applies to the Jaguares,” I wrote a month ago, and that all looks pretty spot on. I’m hugely disappointed about the Jaguares, I must say.

Again, I was right in ranking the Hurricanes and the Crusaders as the top sides in New Zealand, though the Crusaders’ current injury toll is doing its best to create a little gap between the two sides that wasn’t there a month ago.

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Beauden Barrett

The Highlanders weren’t on my radar at all last month – “The Highlanders are a bit of an unknown with a new coach in place, and players moving on” I said of them – but credit where it’s due, they’ve started the season in superb form to remain the only unbeaten side. They’re definitely one team I’ve got wrong, and though I think a few concurrent injuries could test them, they should also finish in the top half.

“And that just leaves the Blues and Chiefs, which I could honestly a flip a coin between,” is how I started a paragraph then, and it’s still the case now. The Chiefs look a bit shaky, and the Blues look very Blues-y. I did give the Blues some hope for 2018, but I’m not sure about that already.

When I first put the pre-season predictions out there, I wasn’t thinking of the Waratahs topping the Australian conference the week before I eventually did, and I’ll be honest, I haven’t been thinking about them topping the Australian conference much in the last few weeks either.

Does their shock thumping of the previously undefeated Rebels mean they now can? Well, I wouldn’t go that far, but it does keep them in touch in that mid-table group of teams they probably do belong among. They certainly needed that win; more than three wins would’ve been a hell of a gap to make up.

The Rebels are well ahead of schedule, and that’s a good thing. The loss on Sunday is probably a good thing, too; a timely reminder that they are aren’t infallible and are just as prone to dropping a game as anyone if they lose momentum themselves and allow the opposition to build it.

The Brumbies also needed that win over the Sharks on Saturday night, and like Daryl Gibson did with moving Israel Folau to the wing, Dan McKellar has now seen that the benefits of moving Christian Lealiifano out to 12 are pretty obvious and clear. Saturday night’s win was first real showing of what the Brumbies tried to implement in the trials.

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They’ll be there or there abouts, and so will the Reds, who already need to be recognised as the shock team on the move in 2018.

It remains to be seen if Brad Thorn’s mantra of hard work and hard work alone can sustain them through the season – they’ve scored the fewest tries over the first five rounds, and by some margin – but Reds fans have plenty of reason to feel relieved that the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t nearly as far away as first thought.

Brad Thorn

And the Sunwolves… well, we love the mighty Moondogs, don’t we. I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect much of them, and so far, they’ve delivered on that. But more performances like their near-upset at Ellis Park and they’ll cause plenty of problems for more-fancied teams.

So, about those Wildcards…
FEBRUARY PREDICTIONS (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Lions, Brumbies, Jaguares, Rebels.

Crusaders can stay there, because I still think the Hurricanes top New Zealand. Lions won’t be there, because they’ll be topping South Africa in place of the Stormers, who should still snare a wildcard comfortably enough.

The Rebels earn a promotion too, and I think they have a very good chance to top the Australian conference.

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The Jaguares won’t be there, however, and I don’t really know what I was thinking a month ago, believing they could change that much. I can comfortably give their spot to the Highlanders.

The Waratahs and Brumbies and Reds are really interesting, and though I could make an argument for all three claiming a wildcard, I think only two of them realistically can.

And on current form, I’m just not sure the Reds have enough points in them. Though they nominally sit fourth on the combined tables that SANZAAR like to pretend don’t exist, they have three wins and a -1 points differential!

Address that, and I’ll happily revisit.

Revised predictions
CONFERENCE WINNERS: Lions, Hurricanes, Rebels
WILDCARDS (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Stormers, Highlanders, Waratahs, Brumbies.

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