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Thursday night forecast: Richmond vs Carlton

21st March, 2018
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Jack Riewoldt celebrates a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Expert
21st March, 2018
60
1320 Reads

Footy. It’s back. Welcome.

We’re 173 days into the Richmond reign over the AFL landscape, so it’s only fitting they kick the season off, unfurling the 2017 premiership flag in front of what is sure to be a crowd of 95,000 or more.

The Tigers have made four forced changes to their grand final 22, Shai Bolton coming in for Daniel Rioli, Corey Ellis for Dion Prestia, Jayden Short for Bachar Houli, and Reece Conca for Nathan Broad. It makes them a bit weaker as a group of individuals, but Richmond embodies team better than any other.

Carlton have a number of new faces to show off – Paddy Dow, the pick three from last year’s draft, ex-Kangaroo outside runner Aaron Mullett, 20-year-old Matthew Kennedy from GWS, and Jarrod Garlett, who spent a couple of years at Gold Coast, but gets a second chance.

Richmond were obviously the talk of the off-season after their surge through September, but they also set the standard in the JLT Series too, beating Essendon and North Melbourne by a combined 157 points. Yes, the Bombers list was riddled with illness in the lead-up, and the Roos are not going to be good, but the Tigers still made a statement. Two, in fact. We’re back, and we’re hungry for more.

Dustin Martin Richmond Tigers AFL 2017

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

But, the Blues were a bit of a quiet achiever in the JLT Series, also winning both their matches. They were able to grind out a win over St Kilda in windy conditions, and then caught fire with an eight goal third term on the way to a narrow victory over Hawthorn. This a new Carlton. Finally, we can smell what they’re cooking.

Dustin Martin versus Patrick Cripps is a battle we all want to see through the middle, and we can expect some goals from each when resting forward too. Look for Trent Cotchin to make a statement on opposition captain Marc Murphy at some stage too. If anyone is going to question Richmond’s hunger this year, the skipper will be there to answer the charge.

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The Blues have gone quite tall in defence, defying the Tigers small-ball approach. Liam Jones will take Jack Riewoldt, but the Richmond key forward’s main job will just be to provide a contest when the ball comes in high.

Jacob Townsend will likely get a defensive job on Jacob Weitering, to cut out his intercept influence. The likes of Lachie Plowman and Caleb Marchbank will have to have their wits about them when the ball hits the deck with Jason Castagna, Dan Butler and Shai Bolton around. Kade Simpson has the experience to not get caught, and will be an important playmaker off half-back.

Up the other end of the ground, it would be great to see Alex Rance take on Charlie Curnow, the best of one generation against possibly the best of the next. It’s a scenario that should unfold if David Astbury goes to Levi Casboult, which looks the right fit.

Alex Rance of the Richmond Tigers

(Photo: Justine Walker/AFL Media)

Richmond looks a more solid outfit across the ground, but so they should be with 18 premiership players running out tonight. Rather than the names though, it’s a gameplan that excelled when pressure was at its fiercest in September, that we can absolutely trust in.

Speaking of September, the Tigers played in front of crowds of 95,000, 95,000 and 100,000 in their three finals last year. The big stage is where they live and breathe.

Meanwhile, Carlton are trying out a new style of play. It’s great to see, but it’s a tough ask to execute perfectly against the best on day one, especially a team that’s biggest strength is taking away opposition ball movement. The Blues will have a crack, but will find it hard to stand up under unrelenting pressure.

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The Tigers closed out 2017 with a 48 point win, setting off months of celebrations that haven’t really stopped. What’s to say they can’t open 2018 in the same way.

Richmond by 48.

That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?

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