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So that’s one round out of the way, and here’s how the teams line up in the Deemed Measure of Expectation and Performance, or DMXP, ratings.
If you don’t know what the DMXP ratings are, you can find a summary in my previous article.
As you can see, there is a lot of immediate similarities between the DMXP ratings and the current ladder. This will begin to differentiate as the season progresses.
1. Greater Western Sydney +2.405 (First on AFL ladder)
GWS take the top place with their big margin. They get a bonus for scoring over 100 points, and a travel bonus for playing in Canberra.
2. Hawthorn +1.892 (3rd)
Hawthorn’s win defied their expectation, so beating a higher ranked team gives them a boost. With their decent margin, they start the season at the right end.
3. Essendon +1.845 (8th)
Essendon impressed by beating grand finalists Adelaide. This unexpected win against a top team elevates them into third place.
4. Gold Coast +1.760 (4th)
Remarkably, the Suns’ win over North Melbourne elevates them to fourth place. They get a good figure by beating a higher ranked team, a decent margin and a boost for travel, with Cairns being as far from the Gold Coast as Melbourne, it’s the same as an interstate trip.
5. Sydney +1.228 (5th)
An impressive haul of goals from Franklin, but this is purely a team calculation. The Swans drop rating points by playing a team ranked eight spots beneath them. They do pick up some bonus points for making the trip and for scoring more than 100.
6. St Kilda +1.151 (6th)
A solid margin, with a bonus for scoring over 100 points lifts St Kilda to sixth for their first outing.
7. Port Adelaide +0.861 (2nd)
The difference between the Power and the Dockers is enough to counteract any gains they receive from their 50 point win. Port Adelaide lose from playing a team ranked 12 places below them.
8. Richmond +0.762 (7th)
The Tigers were expected to win, and they did. While it was a good game, it didn’t prove much in terms of ratings. They get a small boost from their high score.
9. Geelong +0.706 (9th)
Just like Richmond, Geelong performed almost exactly as expected. This gives them little mathematically. The Cats’ score of 97 doesn’t qualify for the bonus points either, which is mostly the difference between themselves and the Tigers.
10. Fremantle -0.461 (17th)
While the Dockers were soundly beaten, they were always supposed to lose, especially in Adelaide. This is reflected in their rating. They get a bonus from travel, but otherwise, there’s not much here to tell us how they’ll go in the weeks ahead.
11. Carlton -0.562 (12th)
As with Fremantle, the Blues performed almost exactly as expected. This gives them only a small drop in rating.
12. Melbourne -0.706 (10th)
With no bonus, Melbourne’s rating is the opposite to Geelong. Doing what the Demons do, they performed to their expectation to the letter.
13. Brisbane Lions -0.751 (13th)
The Lions lost few friends with their performance on Saturday. Playing a team they were supposed to lose to, interstate, they scored a little higher than expected. They gain a bonus from the travel interstate too.
14. West Coast -0.828 (14th)
While expectation said they would lose, it was supposed to be close. They lose some points for the margin, but gain as they played the number one ranked team. No bonuses for the Eagles, however.
15. North Melbourne -1.360 (15th)
The Roos travelled interstate, so gain a bonus. They do lose points for losing to a team they were supposed to beat, although only just.
16. Adelaide -1.645 (11th)
A long fall from the minor premiers. As the number two ranked team, expectation is not kind to them. Only a bonus for interstate travel keeps the Crows from the very bottom of the table.
17. Collingwood -1.692 (16th)
Losing to a lower team always has a negative impact on the score and it has for Collingwood. Doing it at home, with no bonuses doesn’t help.
18. Western Bulldogs -1.805 (18th)
A bad day out for the Dogs. While they gain bonus points for the trip, they can’t make up the deficit of the margin. The good news is that a few wins can quickly turn the score around.
As far as tipping goes, DMXP tipped six winners this week, although the three it didn’t get – Essendon, Gold Coast and Hawthorn – were all predicted to be too close to call. Maybe it’s onto something there.
Moving to this week and some of these tips may seem surprising. However, the results are mostly due to differences in travel, and short breaks.
We tip Carlton (89-80 over Gold Coast), Collingwood (89-77 over GWS), Brisbane Lions (89-72 over Melbourne), Fremantle (90-81 over Essendon), Western Bulldogs (88-76 over West Coast) and Sydney (91-79 over Port Adelaide).
Matches too close to call are Adelaide (tipping 82-79 over Richmond), St Kilda (81-85 over North Melbourne) and Hawthorn (93-91 over Geelong).
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