The ELO-Following Football AFL rating system did better predicting last week’s games than the human behind it did. Reviewing last week’s forecasts, the only one we both missed – as most folks did – was Adelaide’s loss to Essendon.
I adjusted three of my choices away from the ELO recommendations and was only right with the Gold Coast-North Melbourne slobber knocker. My leans towards Melbourne and Collingwood in closely predicted games turned out to be wrong.
So if you count nailing the women’s final, the ELO-FF system is 8-2, and I’m 7-3. Neither is particularly impressive because it looks like this was a remarkably ‘in-form’ first round.
First rounds are notoriously hard to forecast, especially for systems like mine which are results-based rather than speculative. I make adjustments based on pre-season form, draft and, most importantly, on the projected starting 22 going into a game, but first-round games are hard when the only results available, arguably, belong to a significantly different team from six or seven months ago.
My observations coming out of round one.
Buddy be Buddy
I could watch Lance Franklin play football every day for the rest of my life. He can do things no other player can, plain and simple.
Watching a game like Sunday’s, where he single-handedly kept the Eagles from celebrating the opening of their parking lot-less stadium (does that change when Domain gets torn down? Is that how it’s set up?) was awe-inspiring.
Gazza looked like Geelong Gazza
With the bald head, you can’t tell eight years have passed since Gary Ablett Jr last roamed the field in blue and white. 39 disposals, and he was still zipping around like he was the only one with the tracking device on the footy, knowing where it would end up so he could be there when it happened.
The test will be if he’s still doing that in Round 18. I was surprisingly impressed with Ablett’s debut last weekend, every good game he plays on the road for the Cats should irritate the Suns faithful no end.
Missing stars were noticed
West Coast really could have used Josh Kennedy to counter the Bud; I think he would have made a difference. Hard to believe an Adelaide line-up including Taylor Walker, Brad Crouch and Tom Lynch doesn’t hold onto its lead in the fourth quarter.
You expect to fight your own ‘holes’ mid-season; dealing with them in round one is tough. While there was nothing the Bulldogs were going to do to slow the Giants down much, the horrific injury to Tom Liberatore shot a hole in their hearts early on.
It was a hellish round one for Luke Beveridge and the Dogs. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Moving forward without them is tough, too
Ask Port Adelaide who, despite all the positive vibes coming off their victory and the way their new additions added to their productivity, despite the naysayers’ opinions, are going to have to makeshift their ruck position again with Paddy Ryder out six weeks.
All you need is to be deficient in one key position to lose in this league, and the difference between Ryder and anyone else the Power can put up will be huge.
Debutants shined across the league
Port’s Riley Bonner rightly won the Rising Star nomination for week one, but there were plenty of actual first-game stars.
Talented rookies like Paddy Dow for Carlton, Cameron Rayner for the Lions, and Andrew Brayshaw for Fremantle all looked like they belonged. But so did Esava Ratugolea, a Geelong starter for the first time after waiting his turn last year.
As did Brayshaw’s teammate, Bailey Banfield, who was definitely not a first draft pick and had to prove himself in pre-season to earn his guernsey this week.
It may not be smart to be moving your stars around the field, after all
Hey, let’s put Harry Taylor in the forward line. Oh, crud, we need him on defence more! What about moving Easton Wood to the front? Paging Easton Wood, paging Easton Wood; has anybody seen Mr Wood?
Sometimes you move a star because you have to. But most of the time, it’s worth remembering that those players are stars because they know their positions so well. It takes someone of Patrick Dangerfield’s raw talent to be thrown into an unfamiliar position and excel without any prep. 98 per cent of players can’t do it without a bunch of extra training, at best.
I would argue that this league-wide experimental phase will be short-lived.
Before we get too far past, I want to share the results of the AFLW Player Of The Year meta-results, from combining all the sources I can get my hands on for you.
Last year was pretty straight-forward – Erin Phillips was universally acclimated as the MVP in Adelaide’s championship season. This season, it’s not so clear. Courtney Gum? Emma Kearney? Chelsea Randall? Daisy Pearce?
All four had MVP honours from at least one source I found.
Once the votes were totalled, however, it seems the ultimate player of the year is Emma Kearney of the Western Bulldogs! Her total on my meta-tally was 182 points, and led definitively second-placed Chelsea Randall of Adelaide with 165 points, and bronze medalist Kate Lutkins of Brisbane with 148 points.
The rest of the top ten included Daisy Pearce (MEL) – 138, Courtney Gum (GWS) – 136, Elle Blackburn (WB) – 134, Elise O’Dea (MEL) – 131, Alicia Eva (GWS) – 128, Dana Hooker (FRE) – 121, and a tie for tenth between Karen Paxman (MEL) and Sabrina Frederick-Traub (BRI) – both with 114 points.
Emma Kearney of the Bulldogs (left) celebrates a goal. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Chloe Molloy had the highest point total for the Collingwood Magpies, placing 14th at 104 points. The highest total for Carlton was Brisbane transfer Tayla Harris with 73 points.
For the record, last year’s winner placed 18th with 88 points, despite Phillips missing the first two games of the season for Adelaide this year.
Finally, let’s look at the probabilities going into round two for the men.
The ELO-FF computers pick the same nine winners this week as both the punters and I do, but the margins differ. You take a look and decided who you think’s got it sussed out for Easter weekend.
Adelaide hosts Richmond, and the memories of round six linger over those of the grand final, with the consensus forecast of a Crows victory. As of Monday evening (all punters’ lines are quoted from Monday), the Crows are an 8.5 point choice. My computer says it’ll be a rousing, um, 0.1 point Adelaide victory. I guess that’s when the ball doesn’t hit the behind post, but merely becomes quantumly entangled with it.
I’m taking Adelaide but betting the ‘under 16 either way’ bet on this. It’ll be close.
Good Friday sees North Melbourne play St Kilda, where we commemorate the death of our Lord by watching the Saints crucify their enemies. Every one of us has this as a 19-point victory – nothing either team showed last weekend gave the Kangas any renewed hope in this one.
Carlton and Gold Coast, at Etihad. I don’t think of Etihad as being the home of the Blues, but of their eleven home games this year, six are here and only five are at the MCG. So they’d best get used to it, and this is a good game to start with.
Despite a good result for the Suns in Cairns last Saturday, we all foresee a two-to-four goal win for Bolton’s Boys this weekend. The computer likes Carlton to cover with ease.
Collingwood versus Greater Western Sydney. While the oddsmakers have been in love with GWS for over a year now, I have this as just a single-digit spread on the computer. Still, without the only real tall for the Magpies, as ineffective as he was last week, it’s easy to imagine a Giant domination this Saturday.
Brisbane versus Melbourne, at the Gabba, where the Lions should have good support from the locals if they’re ever going to get it. Optimism runs high, despite an opening loss, and my computer has them covering the 18.5-point spread, though I think we all think the Demons will win the game.
Fremantle takes on Essendon, in the Optus for the first time and, while the Eagles got the first official men’s home game last week, the Dockers’ women’s squad got the first official run-out in February. Will that help the men’s team?
I have Essendon winning by almost double the 9.5-point spread the punters are betting on, so my answer is “no”.
Western Bulldogs versus West Coast. What does it say about the Eagles that the Bulldogs could come off of an 82-point beatdown (that was worse than the score because it seemed like the Doggies just gave up at one point in the second half) and they would still be 7.5-point favourites against them this Sunday?
Both teams lost ELO rating points last week, but the Dogs lost far more than West Coast.
I have it as a two-point game, still in the Dogs favour, but I personally wouldn’t bet on this game unless my life depended on it. Motivation will be the key – how does each team react to their opening loss?
Port Adelaide at Sydney. Here’s the flip side of that previous match. If you want an Easter Sunday theme, the first game represents the empty grave (because believe me, that glass is half-empty), and this represents the resurrection: two teams which made the most of their week one hit-outs and come into Sunday’s game on a positive.
The odds say Swans 15.5; ELO-FF has it at 13.1, and I’m thinking that I’d be afraid to bet against Port right now unless you can promise Buddy week two looks like Buddy week one – which he very likely will, so I’m taking Sydney.
Easter Monday, Geelong ‘hosts’ Hawthorn.
If I were a Geelong supporter, I’d be upset about the result produced by the AFL’s rationale here. Nine of their eleven home games are at their real home, the GMHBA… excuse me, “down at Kardinia Pa-ark.”
But the two games they have to ‘host’ at the MCG, ostensibly to accommodate larger crowds, are against teams whose actual home is the MCG.
In my mind, that cost the Cats a good shot at the premiership last year, having to play Richmond at ‘home’ at the MCG in the qualifying final.
They play the Tigers there in June and Hawthorn there this weekend in their annual Easter Monday blockbuster. Oddsmakers give them 9.5 points to the good, my computer says they only have a 0.2-point advantage.
Make no mistake, this is a road game for Geelong, but beating Melbourne is much more impressive right now than beating the Magpies. I’ll take Geelong for 400, Alex.
To summarise: Adelaide, St Kilda, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, Essendon, Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong.
ELO-Following Football record: 8-2
My personal record: 7-3
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