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Here’s what could be in store for the Easter Monday blockbuster

Tom Mitchell. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Roar Rookie
29th March, 2018
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It’s one of the most mouth-watering rivalries in AFL. Hawthorn and Geelong, who have met every Easter Monday for the last decade in what has become one of the most highly anticipated games in every home-and-away season.

Only months after Hawthorn famously upset the formidable 2008 Geelong outfit in the grand final by 26 points, Jeff Kennett – the Hawks’ president at the time – boldly questioned the ‘psychological drive’ of the Geelong players in comparison to his teams own.

So began the ‘Kennett curse’. In 11 meetings from 2009 through to the 2013 regular season, Geelong responded, and would prevail every single time, though only twice by more than ten points.

Hawthorn eventually shook off the mental demons of the curse clinging so tightly to them, and finally got the better of the Cats in the 2013 preliminary final.

Kennett has now returned to Hawthorn for his second stint as the club president. Does this mean the sinister curse has crept back into the minds of the Hawthorn players still hanging around from the 2009-2013 days?

This, alongside the intriguing positions both Hawthorn and Geelong currently find themselves in, could make for an intense Easter Monday clash.

Last year, the then lifeless Hawks were decimated by 86 points on Easter Monday. That, however, is unlikely to happen again.

At the time, Hawthorn was clearly reeling from an off-season list shake-up where club premiership legends were shipped off to other destinations in preparation for the future. The defeat by Geelong was rock bottom for Hawthorn in an abysmal first half of the season.

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Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

It now looks like Alastair Clarkson, the genius innovator, has worked his magic once again as the Hawks look to have undergone a successful mini rebuild on the go.

Young talent they seemingly didn’t have, having missed out on high draft selections in a reign of success through 2008-2015 have been uncovered, and older veterans seem to be in good form.

Hawthorn’s win against Collingwood was no-doubt impressive, however it can’t be treated as a reliable indicator of whether they are ready to shoot back into finals contention, or whether the golden era has really come to an end. Collingwood just aren’t a high-quality opponent, and they were just as bad, if not worse, then Hawthorn were good.

This coming game against its arch-rival will be a far more trustworthy indication of where the Hawks are really at.

Across the bay, there’s a new kid on the block at Kardinia Park. Gary Ablett Jnr’s addition to Geelong’s midfield has created a big four that is likely to cause migraines for opposition teams.

Yes, that’s the big four, not the big three as many like to call it. Yes, Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, and Ablett are superstars. Mitch Duncan averaged over 29 disposals in a breakout year last year to round out the big four. In a bottom eight side he could easily be the number one midfielder.

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We’ve already seen what three of them can do. Selwood (39 disposals), Ablett (39) and Duncan (26) seemed to gel nicely together against Melbourne on Sunday, but Easter Monday will be the first time we get to see the entire, untouchable midfield line-up in action.

How each team could win it
If Hawthorn want to walk away victorious on Monday, its forward line needs to expose Geelong’s depleted defensive stocks. Last year, Hawthorn were riddled with injuries in the backline, forcing forward-line natives such as Jack Gunston into defence, leaving their attack scarce.

It’s now arguably back to full strength. Gunston is in his natural habitat, Cyril Rioli has returned after a lengthy stint on the sidelines and Paul Puoplo and Luke Breust appear in good form after promising outings against the Pies.

On the contrary, Geelong’s defence has taken significant hits. Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan are no longer around to add composure and class, Harry Taylor has sustained a foot injury against Melbourne and Lachie Henderson will be watching on from the stands, also injured.

Hawthorn’s dangerous and potent forward line could wreak havoc against a less experienced than normal Cats’ defence.

The Cats, if they are to prevail, will have to attempt to negate the impact of James Sicily.

In order to cover injuries in Hawthorn’s backline last year, Clarkson swung Sicily back to play as an intercepting defender. Not only did this bolster Hawthorn’s defence for the time being, but also uncovered a potential elite, All-Australian level intercepting defender.

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Sicily has shown an excellent ability to read the ball in the air, and has a precise and damaging kick. He feasted on Collingwood’s questionable inside 50 deliveries, controlling Hawthorn’s back half. Sicily will have even more work to do this week with young gun Ryan Burton likely to sit the game out nursing an ankle injury.

The battle of the midfield will be crucial in the outcome of the game. The Geelong midfield quartet will have Hawks fans shaking in their boots, but Tom Mitchell’s record-breaking, 54-disposal game against Collingwood will give the Cats coaching staff something to think about during the week.

Hawthorn, will have to win it in the backline and forward line. There’s no stopping Dangerfield. Or Ablett. Not to mention Selwood. And let’s not let Duncan slip below the radar.

Patrick Dangerfield Rory Sloane Geelong Cats Adelaide Crows AFL 2017

(Photo: James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)

However, strong outings from Mitchell, Jaegar O’Meara, Isaac Smith and Ben McEvoy would significantly improve the Hawks chances.

For the sake of the many neutral supporters who will be watching around the nation, let’s hope it’s a down to the wire, exciting, sweaty palms kind of a game.

For the sake of the die-hard Hawk fans watching on, let’s hope that Hawthorn can walk away with a win, cementing them as a real threat, not just a middle of the ladder team.

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And, for the Geelong faithful, let’s hope that ‘DangerWoodLettCan’ will tear Hawthorn to shreds and put the competition on notice.

Predictions

  • Geelong’s four-star midfielders have 110 disposals between them and set off alarms in Hawthorn’s coaching box.
  • James Sicily continues hot form as an intercepting defender.
  • Hawks small forwards toy with Geelong’s backline.
  • Geelong wins by 16 points.
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