For the second year in a row, North Melbourne host a Good Friday clash at Etihad Stadium, though whether it is actually “their” game going forward is anyone’s guess, with the AFL saying it will rotate teams through the relatively new slot.
Will an impressive showing from the Roos help their cause, or will it come down to which team plays nice with the bigwigs at AFL House as to who returns in 2019?
The nominal visitors this season are the Saints, who are coming off a solid but unconvincing first-up win against Brisbane.
It’s silly to read too much into Round 1, but the Saints’ transition game stood out. We’ll have a better idea in a few weeks if it was a consequence of them getting belted at stoppages or a concerted effort to play on the counter-attack.
Shane Savage and Dylan Roberton provide the Saints with some drive out of defence, but it was their midfielders – Jack Steven, Jack Billings, Jack Newnes, Blake Acres and Seb Ross – who rolled back in numbers to link up and cut the Lions to shreds.
It’s more about quick decisions than quick legs for St Kilda, with the exception of the indefatigable Steven, who will use his pace to take on the game from just about any position or situation.
Their ability to impact forward of centre makes Steven and Billings the Saints’ two most damaging players; they will require some defensive attention or the Roos will pay a heavy price.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Whether it’s aggressive kicking or running in waves with linking handpasses, the Saints want to get the ball out of defence in a hurry – as do most sides, to state the obvious.
When that quick play is halted they’re patient and willing to probe opposition zones with switches and short passes, but they’re much less effective.
Of the Saints’ 107 points against the Lions, 85 came off turnovers, with 56 of those points beginning with possession in the back half.
It’s a style that might not work against better sides, and coach Alan Richardson said at three-quarter time that the game had gotten too fast at times. They’d prefer those scoring chains started in their forward half.
St Kilda play an aggressive press when the ball is in their forward-50, daring opponents to take them on with speed or precision. But to play the game in their half, they’ll need to be better at stoppages than they were against Brisbane, who had a 44-27 clearance advantage.
Billy Longer has a big part to play there. Longer was belted by Stefan Martin, and if he doesn’t improve on Good Friday, Todd Goldstein is more than capable of making it another bad day for the St Kilda big man.
For the Roos to cause an upset, they’ll most likely need to find a way to slow the Saints and even the game down.
For all of North’s flaws, they have dangerous forwards in Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins, so if they can get first hands on the ball at centre bounces and stoppages around the ground, they’ll give themselves a chance to kick a decent score.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Unfortunately for North, they stink at stoppages. They were the worst team in the comp last season for differential and got hammered 54-35 by the Suns in round one. Ben Cunnington is an animal at the contest and skipper Jack Ziebell is pretty handy, but they just don’t bat deep enough around the ball – that’s the lot of a bad side.
There is little to take out of the Roos’ loss to the Suns in a Cairns swamp, but one interesting note was the age of the side they put on the park.
North had 11 players older than 25 against the Suns and were the sixth oldest and eighth most experienced 22 in round one. They will be the older and more experienced side again on Good Friday.
They’re in no man’s land at the moment in terms of the long-term composition of their list. That doesn’t necessarily work against them in 2018 though. As long as their best players are on the park the Roos should remain relatively competitive – despite winning just six games last year, their percentage was a pretty respectable 87.6.
The last time these teams met was in round 22 last season, with the Saints giving North a 49-point touch-up at Etihad Stadium. I don’t think it’ll be quite that one-sided this time around, but I’m tipping St Kilda to get their season off to a 2-0 start with a five-goal win.
That’s my Friday forecast. What’s yours?
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