The Golden Slipper Carnival concludes this Saturday at Rosehill with a Group 1 double header, highlighted by the Kia Tancred Stakes (2400m). Here are my five suggested plays across the meeting.
Bet One- Win- Race Four Number 3 Dixie Blossoms
I’m surprised she isn’t favourite here. The more I watch the replay, the more I could make a strong case that she should have won the Coolmore.
Just had no luck at all when she needed to get clear because she is a mare who can’t sit/sprint. She needs to build momentum and she wasn’t allowed to do that behind Daysee. If the breaks go her way, Dixie should turn the tables. Hoping they roll forward.
Bet Two- Each Way- Race Five Number 7 Primitivo
Concede that Mongolian Marshal is a chance but I can’t get him that short. Want to have something each way at the double figure odds on Primitivo. Sebring gelding for the John Thompson team who is still a maiden but is blessed with talent.
He comes through the Canberra Guineas where he worked home very strongly but was no match for the Group 1 performed Assimilate. He’s racing as if the 2000m will suit and has upside and happy to have something on at double figures.
Bet Three- Win- Race Six Number 2 Almandin
If Almandin is right and fit, he wins. The stable very rarely get beat when they bring their horses to Sydney and he’s right up there with the best they have got. Australian Cup run was enormous.
Should he have won? On face value, yes, but bear in mind he was aided by the bias. Just didn’t get the splits. That form held up in the Ranvet last Saturday and I think he will be much better suited at 2400m compared to others to come from that race.
Bet Four- Win- Race Seven Number 1 Aloisia
Identical to Almandin. If she’s right, she wins. I think if they go back, she can’t win. But as we saw in the Thousand Guineas in the Spring, she can hold a forward spot and still be explosive at the end, and you could say the same in the Vase on Cox Plate Day.
Australian Guineas run was enormous and the form out of that has been patchy but there are positive signs. I think if the real Aloisia turns up, she wins.
Bet Five- Each Way- Race Nine Number 8 Stonebrook
Great each way play in the last. Waterhouse/Bott train this four year old, who resumed in the feature sprint on Kembla Grange Classic Day and to be fair, he probably had his chance in front and it only took a hard fit Oxford Poet to outgun him. Think he’ll lead again and take some running down.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips across Australia for the week. Good luck!
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