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Geelong vs Hawthorn: Easter Monday Forecast

Gary Ablett (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Expert
2nd April, 2018
7
1048 Reads

Footy’s best modern rivalry writes a new chapter today when the Cats and Hawks clash at the MCG for the seventh-straight Easter Monday.

Last time they met, a hobbled Patrick Dangerfield booted five goals and Isaac Smith missed a goal in the final minute to give the Cats a three-point victory.

While it’s sometimes billed as though these sides play out nail biters every time they meet, that hasn’t quite been the case in recent times.

Last season’s thriller and the two-point 2016 qualifying final aside, five of their past seven matches have been decided by at least 30 points, the biggest blowout an 86-point win by Geelong last Easter Monday.

Brilliant rivalry aside, the more popular storyline is the first appearance of Geelong’s Big Three. We’ve seen some great midfield trios this century – Voss-Black-Akermanis, Judd-Cousins-Kerr and even Ablett-Selwood-Bartel – but we might not have seen a more brilliant threesome in the same jumper than Dangerfield, Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood.

Between them they have accumulated an incredible 580 Brownlow votes and too many accolades to list.

Ablett could hardly have made a more seamless return than he did in Round 1 – racking up 39 disposals and booting a goal in his first game in the hoops since the 2010 preliminary final.

Selwood didn’t seem to mind having his old running mate back in the mix either, picking up 39 touches of his own in a best-on-ground performance in his 250th game.

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Now they’ll add Dangerfield, arguably the best player in the competition, to the mix. Just how Chris Scott manages the three of them will be fascinating, as will be how Alastair Clarkson tries to counter them. All three are likely to spend a decent amount of time up forward, where Dangerfield and Ablett are particularly dangerous.

Patrick Dangerfield Geelong Cats AFL 2017

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

The Cats won’t have it all their own way though. Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell is coming off a record-setting 54 disposals, after all. Scott has hinted at paying extra attention to the Hawks’ ball magnet, which will make centre bounces particularly interesting – it’s not in any of the Big Three’s DNA to worry about their opponent when there’s a ball to be won.

Does that mean we don’t see a lot of Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett in the centre square together so someone, perhaps Cam Guthrie, can run with Mitchell? I sure hope not.

Mitchell’s running partner Jaeger O’Meara is also coming off a nice game – 27 disposals, 14 contested possessions and six clearances – and will quickly remind us all why he was so highly rated for so long if his body co-operates.

It’s rarely a fair fight when Clarkson has a fortnight to prepare for a match-up, as he did ahead of the Hawks’ Round 1 clash with Collingwood, but even so, Hawthorn look to have regained their mojo, particularly in attack.

Cyril Rioli was sharp in his first game in 10 months, Luke Breust and Jack Gunston looked more like the pre-2017 versions of themselves and while Paul Puopolo didn’t trouble the scorers, he did manage seven tackles.

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Jarryd Roughead and Ryan Schoenmakers played the big-forward roles and Shaun Burgoyne did what Shaun Burgoyne always does – make a difference.

Burgoyne never needs a lot of the footy to shape the game and round one was no exception. He had a modest 14 disposals, but was involved in nine score involvements – bettered by only Jack Gunston’s 12 on the night – and booted a couple of goals.

Shaun Burgoyne Hawthorn Hawks AFL Indigenous Round 2017

(AAP Image/David Moir)

It’s a formidable forward unit that looks even more formidable with the Cats’ first-choice key defenders Harry Taylor and Lachie Henderson sidelined through injury.

That puts a lot of pressure on Mark Blicavs, who will most likely be asked to take one of Hawthorn’s big forwards, and Jake Kolodjashnij. Tom Stewart could also be asked to play above his height.

Smooth and creative Hawthorn defender Ryan Burton has been named despite suffering an ankle injury in round one, but if he’s a late out, Burgoyne will likely find himself co-ordinating things in the back half.

If the Hawks can move the ball on their terms through the middle of the ground they’ll be tough to stop. Good thing for the Cats they bat much deeper through the midfield with Fourth Beatle Mitch Duncan, Guthrie, Sam Menegola and impressive recruit Tim Kelly all ready to do their bit.

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Everywhere you look in this game there is a counter-argument. The Hawks look more dangerous forward, but the Cats have the advantage in the midfield.

Ben McEvoy should have the edge in the ruck, but who knows how much that matters. The Cats look stronger in tight, but the Hawks look slicker on the outside. It looks a dead heat when comparing Geelong’s forwards to Hawthorn’s defenders. But, but, but, but …

It all points to a cracking contest more in line with 2017’s second meeting between these teams than the first and I’m tipping Geelong to get up by two goals.

That’s my Easter Monday forecast. What’s yours?

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