Whether an avid golf fan or not, many remember key moments, such as Tiger Woods’ chip-in on 16 in 2005, Adam Scott’s putt on the second extra hole in 2013, or Jordan Spieth’s seven on the 12th in 2016. Moments such as these are the reasons why The Masters is so cherished and anticipated.
Rarely before have we witnessed a Masters anticipated like this. The resurgence of generational heroes such as Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods, the renascent form of two-time champion Bubba Watson, and the return of Dustin Johnson after last year’s ‘stair gate’, are just a few of the storylines underlying this year’s championship.
The course
Augusta National is home to some of the most famous and recognisable holes in all of golf. The par 72 course measures in at over 7,400 yards, which plays longer due to the severe undulations. Augusta is notoriously long, and the driver is almost a formality on all of the par 4s and 5s.
Par 5 scoring is a stronger correlator for success at Augusta, but distance isn’t always necessary as Zach Johnson showed in 2007, famously laying up on all the Par 5s in his victory.
Five of the Par 4s fall between 450-500 yards, with all the others, except 3, falling within 15 yards of this range.
The Par 5s are all reachable for most of the field on an average day and are all under 600 yards.
The Par 3s have a large variance in distance. With the 4th being the longest and traditionally the most difficult at 240 yards. The others lie at 180, 155, and 170 respectively.
Key statistics
Augusta is widely known for being a second shot golf course and explains the consistent success of golfers such as Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, and Vijay Singh, who are prolific iron and wedge players.
This trend is highlighted by a significant decrease in the average amount of Green In Regulations (GIRs) per round against the tour average. Historically, winners of this event have gained over 2 GIRs against the field.
Scrambling from both on and off the green is statistically far higher correlated to success at Augusta than regular putting. When compared to the tour average, 3-putts per round and scrambling from off the green are much higher than is usually seen. As a result, the key short-game statistics at Augusta are:
The statistics which correlate the most with success at the Masters are:
• Strokes gained approach
• GIR gained
• Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards
• 3-putt avoidance
• Strokes gained around the green
Despite being long, there is very little rough and the fairways in their majority are generous, shown by a far higher driving accuracy percentage here than the tour average.
As a result, driving accuracy and strokes gained off the tee are not as determining of success as they are most other weeks on tour.
Analysing the field
Dissimilarly to many other courses that are played on the PGA Tour, course history plays a massive role in success. Since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, no first-timer has won at Augusta and not since Tiger in 1997 has a winner not made the cut in the previous year.
Sorting the field by the above statistics produces the following results:
Strokes gained approach:
1. Phil Mickelson
2. Justin Thomas
3. Rafa Cabrera-Bello
4. Sergio Garcia
5. Zach Johnson
6. Alex Noren
7. Tony Finau
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Paul Casey
10. Bryson DeChambeau
GIR gained:
1. Adam Scott
2. Gary Woodland
3. Rafa Cabrera-Bello
4. Alex Noren
5. Brendan Steele
6. Bryson DeChambeau
7. Paul Casey
8. Kyle Stanley
9. Pat Perez
10. Sergio Garcia
(Photo: AP)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards:
1. Rory McIlroy
2. Adam Scott
3. Jason Day
4. Jon Rahm
5. Pat Perez
6. Paul Casey
7. Kevin Chappell
8. Patrick Reed
9. Charley Hoffman
10. Ryan Moore
3-putt avoidance:
1. Dustin Johnson
2. Zach Johnson
3. Patton Kizzire
4. Kevin Kisner
5. Webb Simpson
6. Alex Noren
7. Adam Hadwin
8. Rory McIlroy
9. Tyrrell Hatton
10. Bubba Watson
Strokes gained around the green:
1. Patrick Reed
2. Adam Hadwin
3. Tiger Woods
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Ryan Moore
6. Tony Finau
7. Marc Leishman
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Paul Casey
10. Jordan Spieth
Aggregated statistics:
1. Adam Hadwin
2. Zach Johnson
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Justin Thomas
5. Tiger Woods
6. Phil Mickelson
7. Tony Finau
8. Bryson DeChambeau
9. Paul Casey
10. Adam Scott
Conclusions and predictions
As we all know, statistics can only provide a guide to predicting success. The model does not allow for course history and as was previously stated, course history is an important factor in Masters success.
Despite this, of the models top 10, five are previous champions and golfers such as Paul Casey have had plenty of previous success.
When analysing a combination of course history, statistics, and the trusty eye-test, there are a few golfers that stand-out. I will provide my picks from five categories; a player in the top 20, 21-50, 51-100, 100+ in the world, and a former champion before 2010.
Top 20
Paul Casey is an obvious favourite, having won already this year at the Valspar Championship and having finished in the top 6 in the last 3 years at Augusta. Outside of 3-putt avoidance, Casey rates out especially well in all of this week’s key stats.
A very consistent performer who has shown that he is not afraid of the big stage and is ready to mark his mark on the game.
Top 21-50
Adam Hadwin is number 1 name player by the model and if conditions set up tough at Augusta, the Canadian is a serious contender.
Despite lacking the length many believe required to win at Augusta, his game draws stark similarities to Danny Willett’s in 2016. In his first start last year he made the cut and finished T36.
Top 51-100
Adam Scott has recovered some form after a poor 12-18 months. Despite not yet hitting his straps so far in 2018, the world number 61’s game has shown serious signs of clicking.
His game has been awesome from tee to green, rating 1st in GIR gained and 2nd in scoring from 450-500 yards. His putting has let him down, but the former champion feels comfortable on these greens and his previous success will breed confidence.
100+
It would be impossible to talk about the masters without mentioning Tiger Woods. The new world number 104, has lifted interest in the game since his return earlier this year. Despite a wayward driver, Tiger’s results have been impressive.
Rating out incredibly well in the model and in strokes gained around the green, Tiger’s fit for Augusta is undoubtedly perfect. The four-time champion has yet to win this year, but his game is trending up.
(Keith Allison/Flickr – CC BY-SA 2.0)
Former champion before 2010
Angel Cabrera places in the top 50 for all five of the key statistics. The 2009 champion has been a stalwart at Augusta, having five other top 10 finishes including losing a playoff in 2009. The Argentinian is a big-time player who wouldn’t surprise if he was hanging around the leaderboard at some point throughout the week.
Who are your picks for this week?
An “unshakeable” Scottie Scheffler has claimed his second Masters green jacket in three years, carding a four-under-par 68 to finish four shots clear of…
A day after setting a tournament record in the Masters, Tiger Woods has suffered an unwanted milestone at Augusta National. Woods insisted he could…
Tiger Woods is on the prowl for a sixth green jacket after penning another glorious chapter in his storied career with a record-breaking 24th…
Bryson DeChambeau has laid some demons to rest with a stunning back-nine birdie barrage to seize the first-round lead at the weather-hit Masters. The…
A year after being persona non grata at Augusta National, Australian golf legend Greg Norman is back at the Masters, declaring "the boss is…
Australian golf star Min Woo Lee has revealed he will play the Masters with a broken finger after suffering the freak injury in the…
