- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
I warned everyone about Round 7 not looking very lucky, and this is one of those occasions where my prescient forewarnings were neither the best feeling in the world, nor well-received. If there was a word to describe most of the tipping last week, it would simply be ‘carnage’.
And yes, I felt said carnage the worst, so tread carefully this week with your comments. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that most of my colleagues fared only marginally better. It’s moment like this that remind myself – and everyone, obviously – that we’re all in this together.
But I’ve used the word ‘most’ there twice now, haven’t I. Yes, most of us had a rough week, indeed. Most of us. And frankly, Nobes, you’ve had your fun. This is already getting a bit ridiculous!
LAST WEEK: Four for Nobes; three for Harry, Geoff, and The Crowd; Digger two, and one from bloody six for me. And no, I don’t want to talk about it, thank you.
OVERALL: Nobes 32; a bigger gap again; everyone else and The Crowd 27, Brett 25.
Nobes
TIPS: Hurricanes, Waratahs, Chiefs, Reds, Stormers, Jaguares.
If SANZAAR intentions were to make us look like bad tippers in 2018, it is fair to say it has accomplished the objective. By this time last year, we were able to tip perfect rounds in many weekends without paying much thought to the games. But not this year, no sir.
For Round 8 I will have to give the Hurricanes a high chance of winning since they have showed that they are the best team out there. The Sharks have had a very good run against the Blues, but the Canes have risen the bar to a higher level that will be hard to reach for most teams.
The Waratahs should not have a problem against the weakest team in 2018. For all you Blues lovers, my tipping will be against them, so they will probably win following my tipping trend on them so far.
I will play the Reds over the Brumbies in a probably very low scoring match, but the reddish team has a better defence to incline my mind towards them. I feel that the Lions have entered a losing spiral and Stormers will bounce back from their defeat against the Bulls.
Finally, and because I feel in a comfortable lead at the moment, I’ll play the Jaguares over the Crusaders. I want them to win and gain the confidence they need by beating the current champions. If they can manage that it is going to be good not only for the Jags, but also for the competition itself.
SURE THING: We all do better this round tipping wise.
(Photo by Gabriel Rossi/Getty Images)
Harry
TIPS: Hurricanes, Waratahs, Chiefs, Reds, Stormers, Jaguares.
Everything is different, now. Nothing is the same. Throw out all history. Form is rubbish. Trends are immaterial. Only one thing is constant: Nobes is king.
This week, the tackle-optional Sharks will bring their newly found scoring prowess to Napier Park, presumably somewhere in the Hutt region. The Canes will score plenty of tries. Plentier than the Sharks.
The Waratahs will finally play a pack as light as their own, but not as fast. Tahs continue their renaissance.
The Blues offload to no avail. The Chiefs break the line at will. The hit show Hamilton will continue its run.
The Brumbies’ “nobody score tries in Canberra” plan might work against the stodgy Reds, but I’ll back the Thorny boys.
The Lions-Stormers derby in the Big Smoke pits two of the least successful tacklers (Kwagga Smith and Raymond Rhule) against each other. But Elton Jantjies and Siya Kolisi are also missing tackles with alacrity. Probably a good tip would be a draw. But I’ll stick with my lads.
Jaguares at home.
Sure Thing: Nobes will still be in the lead, after this round.
(Photo by Michael Bradley/Getty Images)
Geoff
TIPS: Hurricanes, Waratahs, Chiefs, Brumbies, Lions, Crusaders
It seems that the Sharks have rediscovered their mojo, but don’t expect the Hurricanes to show them the try-line as generously as the Blues did last week.
The Waratahs will enjoy unleashing their backline in Tokyo and should pick up a bonus point win to edge closer to the top of the Australian conference. The Blues will surely be better this week, but not enough to beat the Chiefs.
The toughest match to pick this week is in Canberra. A number of sides have struggled this year off the bye, so that, and home ground advantage, is just enough to tip things the Brumbies way over the Reds. Lions at home versus the Flecky, spotty Stormers.
And to finish the round, the Crusaders are a good enough defensive unit to keep the Jaguares under control.
SURE THING: Despite SANZAAR announcing that for the Canberra match tries will be worth ten points each, with a $250,000 bonus per try, a 9-9 push-and-shove-a-thon will still ensue.
(AAP Image/Rohan Thomson)
Digger
TIPS: Hurricanes, Waratahs, Chiefs, Reds, Lions, Crusaders
My current tipping form is much like the Blues I suspect, shot of confidence and little form; Malcolm Turnbull looks more in control than I do. However, we move on and all that.
‘Canes (and Waratahs) by plenty.
The Blues have become untippable, especially away in Hamilton, while if the Stormers cannot win in Pretoria I give them little hope in Johannesburg. The Crusaders tend to be a good bet despite being away from home against a somewhat resurgent Jaguares team.
The head scratcher for me is the Brumbies and Reds. I just don’t know, but I will settle on the Reds. Their resilient defence so far this year looks capable of repelling a Brumbies side who seem allergic to the try-line and their sheer enthusiasm should see them through. Maybe.
SURE THING: Asafa Aumua to score this week (finally), surely. Curwin Bosch will get compared to Christian Cullen in a top, albeit losing effort, and the Blues will dominate talk back again for all the wrong reasons.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Brett
TIPS: Hurricanes, Waratahs, Chiefs, Brumbies, Lions, Crusaders
So here I am, down the bottom once again, after the worst round of tipping since… some time last year, probably.
Hurricanes, Waratahs, and Chiefs feel like the three easiest tips of the season so far. Which means if we learnt anything last weekend, it’s that Sharks, Moondogs, and Blues fans should be feeling very pleased right now. Well, maybe not Blues fans, but you get my drift.
Back to science. Until last weekend, away teams had won just eight of 36 games played, or a tick over one in every five. Even with four away wins from six in Round 7, that rate is still only 12 from 42, or a bit better than one in every four. Law of averages suggests that in a six-game Round 8, we can still only two away winners at most. And the Waratahs will be one of them.
The Reds will not be the other one. The only team scoring fewer tries than the Brumbies currently are the Queenslanders, and though only three teams have better defensive records than the Reds currently (who are level with the Highlanders), the Brumbies are indeed one of those three teams. So while Geoff’s 9-9 prediction holds plenty of water, a Brumbies 12-9 win might be a tad more likely. Plus, they have to win to give fans a reason to keep coming to games.
(Also, selfishly, I’d like my debut in the ABC Grandstand lead commentator’s headset to be a happy affair.)
It won’t be the Stormers, either. They looked really underwhelming last week in Pretoria, and while they might be better for the run at altitude, I also think the Lions will still be smouldering below the surface and keen to restore Ellis Park to the fortress they want it to be.
And that means that the Crusaders will be that other away team to win. And I’m pretty happy with that; I can’t really see any reason to pick against them for the foreseeable future.
SURE THING: Five away wins now, obviously, which would’ve been six but for a 79th minute Jaguares penalty goal from the junction of halfway and the five-metre tram line, just to spite me. Remember where you read it first…
Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.
What have you got, Crowd? Who gets your tip? Got a sure thing yourself? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend…