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The Championships Day 1: Group 1 previews and tips

Love me that Randwick racing. (AAP Image/Steve Hart)
Expert
5th April, 2018
7

The Championships at Royal Randwick is the centrepiece of the Sydney autumn carnival, and day one brings with it four big Group 1 races.

Doncaster Mile
The Doncaster is arguably the most famous race of the Sydney autumn, or at least in the conversation with the Golden Slipper, and is the second best handicap in Australia behind the Melbourne Cup. This year has attracted a hot field.

Three year olds are hard to beat in the Doncaster, and this year will be no exception with two of them in the field.

Kementari heads the betting after cutting a swathe through the autumn three year old races with a trio of easy wins, before getting within 1.6 lengths of Winx in the George Ryder. It’s irresistible form for a horse with 51.5kg’s on his back, and Avdulla will be looking for a box seat position from barrier two.

D’Argento is the other three year old, and gets in with 49. He was only a length off Kementari in the Hobartville three starts ago, and has since subsequently won the Rosehill Guineas. He’ll be charging late.

Happy Clapper leads the fight for the older horses, and is looking to do the Epsom-Doncaster double in the one season. He loves the Randwick mile, and got within length of Winx in the George Ryder last start, but meets Kementari 2.5kg’s worse after beating him home by three quarters of a length.

Crack Me Up and Invincible Gem also come out of the George Ryder, but it’s hard to make much of a case for either at the weights, given the quality of this field.

The Ajax Stakes is a popular lead up, which was quinella’d by stablemates Comin’ Through and everyone’s favourite, Tom Melbourne. No prizes for guessing which of those two ran second.

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Tom Melbourne has been Group 1 placed in three 1600m handicaps already this season, and there’s no reason he can’t make it a fourth here. Second-up to a mile appeals too. Comin’ Through is rarely far away when he gets his chance.

Arbeitsam was fifth in the Ajax after setting the race up for those coming from behind, and is on the back-up after winning over 2000m last week. Hard, fit, on-speed, in-form, Waterhouse, etc. His profile writes itself, and is worth an each-way ticket at $21.

Endless Drama was no match for Happy Clapper in the Canterbury Stakes, but gets weight relief enough here to put him in the conversation. Lanciato has proven to be a devastating performer since they turned him into a fresh horse, running every month or so. Prized Icon is a bit over the odds, and gets down in the weights for the first time in a while after mixing it with many of this field this prep.

The Vics have had a good Sydney carnival so far, with the Melbourne form standing up consistently throughout. The quality of Darren Weir’s Humidor and Tosen Stardom is proven by holding the top two saddlecloths.

Humidor got about four lengths closer to Winx than anyone else ever has in a Cox Plate, and his second-up win in the Blamey tells us he’s back. His third up run in the spring was almost Winx-like in its dominance when taking out the Makybe Diva Stakes, so he’ll be primed to go.

Tosen Stardom mixes his form but is a dual Group 1 winner this season, including the Mackinnon over Happy Clapper at WFA. His best is as good as anyone’s in the field, and you’re getting a huge price when considering this.

Mister Sea Wolf’s second to Lanciato in the Newcastle Newmarket ties him in. Cool Chap pushed Humidor to half a length in the Blamey and meets him 4kg’s better for it. Egg Tart hasn’t lived up to her spruik as a four year old, and you’d be taking her on faith alone.

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Arbeitsam will certainly take the field along, and may be unpressured in doing so, although a few of the riders will get itchy halfway through the race, and the creep will well and truly be on from the 600m if this is the case.

Selections: 1.Kementari 2.Happy Clapper 3.Tom Melbourne 4.Tosen Stardom

Redzel wins The Everest

(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)

TJ Smith Stakes
The TJ Smith is the big sprint race of the Sydney autumn, held over 1200m under weight-for-age conditions. Sadly, three time winner Chautauqua won’t be there, but that means a new champion can be crowned.

Redzel is the short priced favourite, and clearly the testing material in anything he contests having won six of his last seven races. The last time he saw this track and distance, he won The Everest, the richest race in Australian history.

Redzel’s last start win in the Challenge Stakes was effortless, and even his first-up second in the Lightning Stakes suggests he is going as well as ever. The winner of the Lightning, Redkirk Warrior, followed up by winning the Newmarket, and isn’t here.

Brave Smash was a narrow second to Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket, and was also third in The Everest, beaten a length by Redzel. He is right in the conversation, and trainer Darren Weir is proving hard to stop.

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What does Craig Williams do from barrier two though? He won’t want to get trapped on the fence in the back third of the field with tired leaders falling back into him in the straight.

Missrock and Thronum also bring the Melbourne form up through the Newmarket. Thronum will be right up on the speed as one of the horses vying for the lead, and Missrock usually runs well enough from the tail but finds it hard to win at this level.

In Her Time isn’t quite in Redzel’s league as a winning machine, but she’s a serious sprinting talent that is really coming into her own. Her first-up win in the Galaxy was outstanding, especially given the weight she was asked to carry as a mare.

In Her Time’s last 18 months has been superb, with plenty of wins and any losses only being by small margins at the highest level. She’s only met Redzel once, when he beat her in the Doomben 10,000 last year, but there’s no doubt she’s a better horses now.

English wasn’t far away from In Her Time in the Galaxy, after conceding her a start. She’s been Group 1 competitive ever since running second in the Golden Slipper at her third ever start, and has been placed in the last two TJ Smith’s. Her best puts her thereabouts.

A few others come through the Galaxy, but will have their work cut out to find the podium here.

Le Romain was okay, but look for him in the All Aged Stakes in two weeks rather than this. Jungle Edge has been a bit forgotten after getting no favours and can turn things around. Takedown isn’t the horse he was. The Mission ran a fine race at 100-1, but this is another step up for the Paul Perry colt.

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Global Glamour is one of many speedsters in the race, and is in her usual honest form. She tried to lead all the way in the Canterbury Stakes before being overtaken by Happy Clapper in the closing stages, but thumped the rest. The question is whether 1200m is just a fraction short against the best of the best.

The three year old Showtime couldn’t hack it in the Canterbury behind the speed set by Global Glamour, but his previous runs in the Expressway and Futurity suggested a touch of class. Trapeze Artist won the Expressway on his way to a third placing in the Randwick Guineas, and is one of the best of his age group.

There is plenty of speed in the race, and they’ll go like the clappers. Redzel and In Her Time will jostle for a box seat position, and may sit alongside each other in the run.

Selections: 1.Redzel 2.In Her Time 3.Brave Smash 4.Global Glamour

Australian Derby
Form references don’t get any more solid than for the Australian Derby, with only one runner of the 20 acceptors not coming through either the Rosehill Guineas two weeks ago or the Tulloch Stakes last Saturday.

Being a Group 1, the Rosehill Guineas unsurprisingly provides the main chances in the market, but it is a competitive betting race.

D’Argento swept all before him in winning the Rosehill Guineas, but Chris Waller has chosen the Doncaster for that colt. Vin De Dance, albeit relegated to fourth on protest, was a clear second across the line after getting every favour in the run, but there was a wall of horses behind him, with only half a length covering the next seven runners home.

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Ace High was the one to follow out of the race, having been three wide on the speed the entire race but found himself still in front at the 200m. He’s the most proven stayer in the field after his dominant VRC Derby win in the spring, he appears to be a far better horse on top of the ground, and he’s drawn to get the cheapest run in the race.

Terravista ridden by Hugh Bowman

(AAP Image/David Moir)

Ace High has been tracking beautifully for this race ever since resuming in the Expressway Stakes against the older horses, and there is no reason to tip against him.

Vin De Dance won the New Zealand Derby over 2400m, so is proven at the distance, and is strong. Furore was the most unlucky of those in the finish of the Rosehill Guineas after getting a squeeze, as he looked full of running and is the fresh improver on the scene.

Mongolianconqueror and Mission Hill, also from the New Zealand Derby and with mixed fortunes there, made the most ground from the tail in the Guineas. Mission Hill looks the one to follow there, and is due some luck.

From the Tulloch Stakes, Belfast is the one everyone wants to be on and understandably so after his flashing light performance from last to get within a couple of lengths of the winner Levendi. Any Melbourne form around Cliff’s Edge is rock solid, and he has it.

Levendi’s has claimed Belfast’s measure twice in a row now, and he shouldn’t be discounted. He’s probably more of a Group 2 or 3 type animal at the moment though, rather a Group 1 winner.

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Selections: 1.Ace High 2.Furore 3.Mission Hill 4.Vind De Dance

Sires Produce
It’s hard to go past the obvious Golden Slipper form for the Sires Produce, and hence the three runners from it occupy the top spots in the market, in the order they finished.

Oohood is an outstanding fast finishing filly that is yet to win from five races but has also never missed a place. She acts like 1400m is going to be right up her alley, is super consistent and has drawn perfectly for her racing pattern.

Seabrook has had a superb preparation. She was unlucky first-up behind two horses that then ran exceptionally well in the Blue Diamond, including Oohood, then came to Sydney and won the Sweet Embrace in style, before an excellent fifth in the Slipper.

Long Leaf has proven a professional two year old, apart from a plain performance in the Blue Diamond when getting too far back. That was his first defeat, but he bounced back with a good sixth in the Slipper, again from the tail after going to the rear from a wide barrier.

Outside the obvious trio, Tchaikovsky might give them something to catch if they want to lead again like he did breaking his maiden at Gosford. Encryption has been forgotten a bit after a solid run in the Blue Diamond followed by a win in the Black Opal.

There might be a little case for Adana jumping massively in grade if she fixes her manners. Spin is a good horse that always runs well, and backing up off a 1400m run in the Ballieu has been a winning formula in this event before.

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Selections: 1.Oohood 2.Seabrook 3.Long Leaf 4.Spin

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