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The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 4

Jordan Lewis has a chance to get his first win against the Hawks (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Expert
11th April, 2018
59
6691 Reads

Round 4 offers us a number of intriguing games when it comes to tipping.

Collingwood’s last two weeks have been reasonably impressive efforts but I doubt they’ve got it in them to knock over the Crows at Adelaide Oval.

GWS probably have a few more questions over them than they’d like after the past fortnight but I’ll still tip them to better Fremantle in Canberra.

Richmond’s big win over Hawthorn in Round 3 was a seriously impressive performance. Brisbane can challenge teams, but the Tigers will win the battle of the big cats.

The Western Bulldogs have a funny habit of upsetting Sydney… but even after getting a breakthrough win last week, I can’t justify tipping them against the Swans.

North Melbourne play the conditions at Bellerive very well, while Carlton have never played there, which should be a big enough factor to get the Kangaroos a win.

While the Suns have played reasonably good footy so far in 2018, West Coast, like Fremantle last week, are probably a class above. Home ground advantage helps too.

I can’t possibly pick Essendon to beat Port Adelaide after last week’s debacle, even though they have a history of upsetting them.

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Melbourne are a more talented team than Hawthorn and it’s time for them to be a better team also. I’ll back in the Dees to win on Sunday.

Geelong should arrest a worrying period of poor form with a win over St Kilda… should.

A lock of the week is harder to find this time around than it is most. I’ll go with Adelaide to conquer Collingwood on Friday night.

Lock of the week from the Simpsons

Adrian Polykandrites
Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Sydney, North Melbourne, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong

GWS should make light work of the Dockers in Canberra.

The Lions face a second daunting road challenge at the MCG against the reigning premiers. If Brisbane can stay within touch until three-quarter time it will be a huge success. I’m tipping the Tigers to win fairly comfortably.

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The Dogs looked like a real football team again against the Bombers, but will need to sort out their accuracy in front of goal to make Sydney sweat. Buddy loves playing at Docklands.

I think the Roos will be a little too good for the winless Blues in Tassie.

West Coast should move to 3-1 without too much trouble against Gold Coast.

Sunday has the two matches of the round for me. I like the Power in a close one against the Bombers and the Demons in a close one against the Hawks.

Geelong will be happy to return home and should beat the disappointing Saints fairly comfortably.

TomC
Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Sydney, North Melbourne, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong

Most games have clear favourites this week. Let’s hope for a few upsets.

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Adelaide to feast on the Pies, GWS don’t lose in Canberra and won’t against Freo, Richmond will maintain their streak against the Lions, Sydney too good for the Dogs, West Coast ‘away’ to Gold Coast, and Geelong to steamroll the Saints.

In the closer ones, North might have started the season level with the Blues in most minds, but they’ve shown a fair bit more consistency and appear to have the advantage in this contest.

Essendon are a better side than they showed last week, and Port weren’t exactly convincing against the Lions.

At Docklands I’d give the Bombers a chance of bouncing back, but I think it’s more likely that the Power regain their top form after a down week and prove to have too much quality and depth, especially in the midfield.

Hawthorn and Melbourne at the G is surely the match of the round. The Demons start favourites with the bookies, but for mine the Hawks have played better footy over the first few rounds.

I think there’s still some fragility about Melbourne – they’ve had periods in games where they’ve dropped away badly – and while Hawthorn aren’t the unit they were they’re still capable of exploiting weakness. I’m tipping the Hawks.

Round 4 Josh E Adrian P Cam R TomC The Crowd
ADE vs COL ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE
GWS vs FRE GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS
RIC vs BRI RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC
WB vs SYD SYD SYD SYD SYD SYD
NM vs CAR NM NM CAR NM NM
WCE vs GCS WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE
ESS vs PA PA PA PA PA PA
HAW vs MEL MEL MEL MEL HAW HAW
GEE vs STK GEE GEE GEE GEE GEE
Last week 4 7 6 6 6
Total 12 18 15 16 17
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