Adelaide vs Collingwood: Friday Night Forecast

Adrian Polykandrites Columnist

By Adrian Polykandrites, Adrian Polykandrites is a Roar Expert

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    Collingwood return for their second straight Friday night appearance, but they face a very different opponent this time around as they head to Adelaide Oval to face the Crows.

    Unfortunately for the Magpies, they have again been hit with injuries.

    Accumulator Taylor Adams tweaked a hamstring at training and gun forward Jamie Elliott suffered the same affliction as he was on the verge of a return. Darcy Moore was already sidelined with a torn hammy suffered in Round 2. Fellow smart forward Alex Fasolo is not yet ready for a senior return.

    It makes a tough task that much tougher for Nathan Buckley’s side if they are to avoid a 1-3 start to the season.

    Adams’ absence will test Buckley’s nerve. One of the coach’s winning moves over the past fortnight has been that of Adam Treloar to the forward line. Treloar hasn’t abandoned his midfield role entirely, but has made the Pies more dangerous in the chunks of time he’s spent in the attacking part of the ground.

    Does Buckley back the recalled Jordan de Goey and others to pick up the slack in Adams’ absence or does Treloar return more permanently to the middle of the ground? Treloar chasing the footy appears the safer move, but the Pies won’t win this one by playing safe.

    Adam Treloar

    Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images

    Then there’s the matter of the Collingwood skipper. Scott Pendlebury got the job on Blues brute Patrick Cripps in Round 3, quelling the Carlton gun’s influence while still causing damage when he won the footy. He could be tasked with a similar challenge tonight against Bryce Gibbs or Rory Sloane.

    With the Brothers Crouch out injured, nullifying one of Sloane or Gibbs would be a blow to the Crows.

    Gibbs has made a spectacular start in his new colours, averaging the best part of 30 disposals – including 14.7 contested possessions, well above his career-best mark over a season of 10.7 – to go with almost eight clearances and half a dozen tackles and inside-50s. He’s also booted four goals. Don Pyke could choose a pre-emptive strike against the Pies by sending Gibbs to do the job on Pendlebury, a role he is more than qualified for.

    Sloane is coming off a poor game against St Kilda, perhaps due to a gimpy ankle he appeared to injured against the Tigers in Round 3. If he struggles again and the Pies can clamp Gibbs, it could be game on.

    The territory battle will be crucial. Adelaide and Collingwood are ranked first and second, respectively, for scores from forward-half intercepts – the Crows have scored 120 points from front-half takeaways, the Pies 115.

    The other Rory, in Laird – there’s also Atkins, the other, other Rory – will also need plenty of attention from Collingwood. The halfback god is currently the No.2 ranked player in the competition for intercept possessions with 31 through three matches. He’s also ranked fifth for metres gained and fourth for kicks at 20 a game.

    The Crows are a brilliantly organised team and Laird is a big part of the reason they have conceded only 64 points from their own defensive-half turnovers in the first three weeks of the season – ranked fifth. Collingwood are 15th in this category, having conceded 107 points.

    Laird’s running mate, Paul Seedsman, is in the form of his life. The Adelaide winger has grabbed the opportunity created by Brodie Smith’s unfortunate ACL injury with both hands, averaging career-best 26 disposals and six inside-50s a game. He’s No.2 in the league for metres gained.

    We know what the blueprint looks like to beat the Crows in Adelaide: win the clearances – centre clearances, especially – pressure the hell out of their defenders and squeeze up on them to take away their lethal transition game. And, most importantly, take your chances – Melbourne kicked 17.5 in their win at Adelaide Oval last season.

    It’s not easy. But if you let Adelaide move the ball cleanly, there’s a good chance their nuclear-powered forward line will smash you to smithereens.

    Brodie Grundy will again have a crucial role to play for the Pies. He’s got the better of Matthew Kreuzer, Rory Lobb and Ben McEvoy so far this season. For Magpies to stand a chance he’ll need to best Sam Jacobs as well, both at stoppages and around the ground.

    Collingwood face an almighty task if they’re to pull this one off. Even without several key players, the Crows are a formidable team with premiership aspirations and a significant home-ground advantage.

    Wet conditions are expected, which some people believe benefits the underdog. I am not one of those people. Even in the rain, the Crows will be too slick, with too many scoring options for the Magpies.

    I’m tipping Adelaide to run out six-goal winners.

    That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?

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    The Crowd Says (120)

    • April 13th 2018 @ 8:36am
      truetigerfan said | April 13th 2018 @ 8:36am | ! Report

      Yeah . . . Crows by six goals, if Collingwood play ‘above’ themselves! Lol.

      • April 13th 2018 @ 9:34am
        peter chrisp said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:34am | ! Report

        TTiger fan you summed it up well and i think the week after we play you guys & i think twice?

      • April 13th 2018 @ 4:26pm
        Dan in Devon said | April 13th 2018 @ 4:26pm | ! Report

        I think Collingwood will pose some problems with their run off the halfback. New boy Murray looks a find. Thomas with five goals will pose problems with his run into the 50. Collingwood look a very fit and fast running team. Their problem lies in their delivery into the forward 50 and their switch kicking. I thought some of their hand balling was reminiscent of Carlton in the 90s. Mason Cox showed glimpses of promise. But always managed to bring the ball to ground. This will be closer than people think.

        • Roar Guru

          April 13th 2018 @ 4:34pm
          Paul Dawson said | April 13th 2018 @ 4:34pm | ! Report

          Cox will be handy tonight if it keeps raining – at 2m he’d make an ideal water depth marker

          • April 14th 2018 @ 6:14am
            Dan in Devon said | April 14th 2018 @ 6:14am | ! Report

            Really? Hope you watched the game lol

          • April 14th 2018 @ 6:17am
            Chris said | April 14th 2018 @ 6:17am | ! Report

            The more you guys rubbish us the better it is…We want success and it shows…

            • April 14th 2018 @ 9:03am
              Jonboy said | April 14th 2018 @ 9:03am | ! Report

              Good onya Chris enjoy,quieten down the Buckley knockers,

      • April 14th 2018 @ 5:50am
        Chris said | April 14th 2018 @ 5:50am | ! Report

        True Tiger Fan..Get your tickets early for the big one in two weeks. We’ll break the 1958 home and away record. Put that in your little black book! You won’t walk a,ll over us either. We are back in town and how!!!!

        • April 14th 2018 @ 5:59am
          Chris said | April 14th 2018 @ 5:59am | ! Report

          Anon…You don’t know the first thing about AFL. Did you see what a good old-fashioned win over the Blues does to our joint? Get yourself an almanac and do some proper AFL research. The Boys are well and truly back in town. MInd you, Elliott, Fasolo and Wells can’t get a game and there are more reinforcements in the wings..Welcome back real footy from the real warriors in black and white. Now it’s going to be really interesting season…2018 has just come alive. And the real blockbuster of the year is only two weeks away. The Victoria Street neighbours will be at it like in days of old. What a mind-boggling derby! This is what we have all been quietly waiting for….Anonm, Don freo & all the other pundits that don’t know the first thing about footy! We want the hides of those Yellow and Black Tigers…Welcome back Footy! P.S. Rex Hunt sounded very subdued on 3AW last night, too. He knows they are in for a real contest!

          • April 14th 2018 @ 9:46am
            Don Freo said | April 14th 2018 @ 9:46am | ! Report

            Hey…leave me out of that one. I have been praising Buckley for years. You won’t find any negative comment from me about The Pies.

    • April 13th 2018 @ 8:37am
      Peter Chrisp said | April 13th 2018 @ 8:37am | ! Report

      Could not agree with you Moore although our game last week against The Blues was reasonably good win win but not up to a high standard that was expected but there were signs and that was our only problem where we didn’t play the full 4 quarters and judging by the experts and tipsters we have 2 hopes Buckley’s and none and fair enough what can we bring to the table this time with our backs against The Wall well let’s wait and see

    • April 13th 2018 @ 8:37am
      truetigerfan said | April 13th 2018 @ 8:37am | ! Report

      As an aside, isn’t it great news that the GF is to be held at the G until at least 2057 now. Awesome!

      • Roar Guru

        April 13th 2018 @ 8:53am
        AdelaideDocker said | April 13th 2018 @ 8:53am | ! Report

        Oooooh, just read that! This’ll enrage the anti-MCG grand final fans, but I have no qualms.

        Some other great developments, though. Rebuild of the MCG’s southern stands, more cash for Ethiad, more cash for other AFL grounds, cementing Princes Park as the home of the AFLW, more access to MCG training and charter flights for interstate grand finalists, a hotel on near Ethiad with a ballroom for holding the Brownlow.

        … almost like the Victorian government has an election to win or something.

        • Roar Guru

          April 13th 2018 @ 1:06pm
          Peter the Scribe said | April 13th 2018 @ 1:06pm | ! Report

          I wonder if the past two premiers would have saluted had the GF been best of three? I suspect no for both.

        • April 13th 2018 @ 4:48pm
          Johnno said | April 13th 2018 @ 4:48pm | ! Report

          AD…..where was the AFL when WA were trying to get money for our new stadium? AR or AFL….just the same.

          The AFL needs to grow up and get out of Victoria and into Australia!

      • April 13th 2018 @ 8:59am
        mattyb said | April 13th 2018 @ 8:59am | ! Report

        I think you’ll find a lot of the discussion is now being centred around a best of 2 or 3 GF system,rather than moving the game entirely away from the MCG.
        2057 seems along way off and I seriously suspect very few people will be attending live sport by this time.
        This is purely theoretical of course but I think we will be living in a far different world by then due to the continued advancement of technology and a greater understanding of quantum science.

        I’d also imagine there would be some solid clauses in such a log term contract but I think we can certainly find a solution that keeps a GF at the MCG while at the same time growing the game nationally and improving the credibility of the competition as a whole.

        • April 13th 2018 @ 9:12am
          truetigerfan said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:12am | ! Report

          There is absolutely no discussion centred around a best of 2 or 3 GF system. Stirring the pot?

          • April 13th 2018 @ 9:48am
            Birdman said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:48am | ! Report

            • April 13th 2018 @ 11:07am
              truetigerfan said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:07am | ! Report

              With all due respect Mike Sheahan put it on ‘his’ agenda only. Has no influence on the AFL decision makers at all! A bit like the continual noise makers on this site.

              • April 13th 2018 @ 11:43am
                Birdman said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:43am | ! Report

                the article indicates the push is coming from non-Vic officials not from Mike.

                Not sure best of 3 will happen anytime soon (or ever) but a twilight granny and shorter quarters will def. not be far away. Dammit!

              • April 13th 2018 @ 11:54am
                truetigerfan said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:54am | ! Report

                Twilight granny would be okay as far as I’m concerned but shorter quarters would suck! Would have to limit interchanges dramatically. Fatigue factor late in quarters is a good thing for everyone!

              • April 13th 2018 @ 12:52pm
                Don Freo said | April 13th 2018 @ 12:52pm | ! Report

                A twilight granny would see everyone drunk by the time the game starts. A recipe for crowd mayhem.

            • Roar Guru

              April 13th 2018 @ 1:07pm
              Peter the Scribe said | April 13th 2018 @ 1:07pm | ! Report

              How much shorter for the quarters are they saying?

              • April 13th 2018 @ 3:47pm
                Birdman said | April 13th 2018 @ 3:47pm | ! Report

                5 mins

              • April 13th 2018 @ 6:01pm
                BigAl said | April 13th 2018 @ 6:01pm | ! Report

                Shorter quarters could be a great thing ! This game of Aussie rules can be so exhausting, leading to heaps of junk time goals and . . . blow-out-results !
                Mick Malthouse has spoken about this.

        • April 13th 2018 @ 9:28am
          Don Freo said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:28am | ! Report

          The advances in quantum science, enabling us to understand how we can teleport ourselves will raise great problems for ticketing logistics.

          They’ll need to update the turnstile system.

          • April 13th 2018 @ 9:47am
            AD said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:47am | ! Report

            How will they stop streakers teleporting themselves onto the field, running around a bit with their junk out, then teleporting out again before security can stop them?

            • April 13th 2018 @ 11:07am
              Don Freo said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:07am | ! Report

              Our quantum literacy will enable us to self-censor so that if the dangly bits offend us, we can pixilate them with our own minds.

              • April 14th 2018 @ 12:45am
                Slane said | April 14th 2018 @ 12:45am | ! Report

                Classic.

          • Roar Guru

            April 13th 2018 @ 12:49pm
            DingoGray said | April 13th 2018 @ 12:49pm | ! Report

            Hahahahahaha…..

            This is the best! Far better than any Freo win! Well played old son.

        • April 13th 2018 @ 9:35am
          peter chrisp said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:35am | ! Report

          I don’t think i’ll be around in 40 years time!

        • Roar Guru

          April 13th 2018 @ 11:47am
          AdelaideDocker said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:47am | ! Report

          Ugh god no, Matty. A best of three grand final would be horrible. As would people not attending live sport anymore.

          • April 13th 2018 @ 11:56am
            Don Freo said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:56am | ! Report

            If we take the lead from basketball…best of 5 or best of 3…all we have is anti-climax. The AFL GF is a Grand Final because a once off event is GRAND!

            Anywhere but the MCG and it is second rate. The only time it might be elsewhere will be when the MCG is refurbished and out of commission for a while.

            What is better than an AFL Grandy at the G? Nothing.

            • April 13th 2018 @ 12:05pm
              dan ced said | April 13th 2018 @ 12:05pm | ! Report

              No point moving it from the G unless there is a better ground for it.. and that’s coming from a “2017 grand final didn’t happen” butthurt Crows supporter!

            • Roar Guru

              April 13th 2018 @ 1:09pm
              Peter the Scribe said | April 13th 2018 @ 1:09pm | ! Report

              Our sport is too gruelling for best of three or best of five. One positive I guess is that the two grand finalists would be 3-5 weeks behind the other sides for the following year, a kind of forced equalisation system.

      • April 13th 2018 @ 9:00am
        Roger4ever said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:00am | ! Report

        Not really if you are from a non Victorian state and two non Victorian teams would meet in the GF. For instance the two SA teams….

      • Roar Guru

        April 13th 2018 @ 11:33am
        Paul Dawson said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:33am | ! Report

        As someone in the city about 6th in the pecking order to host it, couldn’t care less. The G is the best venue in Australia for it anyway.

        Best 2 of 3 grand finals – blaahhhhhh, no thanks. What’s wrong with one game and winner takes all? It’s good enough all throughout the year

        Start getting into that stuff and then you’re going to have best of 3 prelims, and it also gives credence to all the excuse making and whinging from clubs about traveling

        Matty – for someone who buys a membership for your whole family & travels to and from Perth to Melbourne 8-10 times a year to watch the dogs you seem strangely apathetic about the prospect of attending footy. I hope you’re not crossing your fingers and praying for quantum teleportation to be invented before you run out of cash.

      • April 13th 2018 @ 11:52am
        cuz said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:52am | ! Report

        I’m happy with the fact that the GF is at the ‘G’, however it is important that all teams get a decent run there. It’s a little unfair to finish around the top and have to play at the ‘G’ if you have only had a couple of matches over the year. If unable to fixture interstate teams at the ‘G’ over the course of the year, I think it wise that clubs get the opportunity to play a few preseason matches to at the ground to get a better feel of the arena.

        • Roar Guru

          April 13th 2018 @ 11:53am
          Paul Dawson said | April 13th 2018 @ 11:53am | ! Report

          All the articles state interstate teams who make the grand final will have a charter flight paid for by AFL and increased access to the MCG to train on. The AFL are definitely going to be doing more to give the interstate sides a better travel experience, and more experience with the dimensions of the ground.

          • Roar Rookie

            April 13th 2018 @ 12:25pm
            Pedro The Fisherman said | April 13th 2018 @ 12:25pm | ! Report

            Yeh – at least 2 games at the MCG … EACH … every year and … if you make the GF … then an extra training session (45 minutes it seems).
            That’ll even out the disadvantage of playing someone on their home deck!

            • April 13th 2018 @ 1:00pm
              Philby said | April 13th 2018 @ 1:00pm | ! Report

              Take your point Fisherman, although it has to be pointed out that the MCG is the least advantageous ‘home ground’ advantage in the competition.

              Four teams have it as their home ground (Tiges, Dees, Hawks and Pies), and all other Vic clubs will play there 5 times or so per season (excluding finals).

              Compare that to Adelaide Oval, where away teams (i.e. the other 16) play a maximum 2 games per year. For Geelong’s Kardinia Park, all 17 other teams play there less than once a year, along with its odd shape, that makes for a huge home ground advantage.

              Of course, the situation is not so good for interstate teams at the MCG, which is why I think the AFL has to schedule those teams to play there when in Vic, even if the crowd is projected to be small. That way, they too, can play there minimum 4-5 times per year.

              It’s not a perfect situation, but it is the least unfair outcome.

              • April 13th 2018 @ 3:45pm
                jonboy said | April 13th 2018 @ 3:45pm | ! Report

                Philby you make some good points there but the so called AFL have no intentions of making the competition any Fairer none at all !

            • April 13th 2018 @ 4:15pm
              Johnno said | April 13th 2018 @ 4:15pm | ! Report

              If the GF is going to be at MCG, nothing we non-Victorians can do about it. The AFL now need to put in place some advantages for non-Victorian clubs. Not sure what, better brains than me could sort that out. This will make the A in AFL more real.

              • Roar Pro

                April 13th 2018 @ 4:31pm
                anon said | April 13th 2018 @ 4:31pm | ! Report

                I think an easy compromise would be letting teams ‘bank’ home finals.

                Adelaide was the higher seeded team in last year’s GF but were forced to play on an away ground.

                This would mean they have ‘banked’ a final.

                Next time they have an away file, they can choose to spend the final they have already ‘banked’.

                If they are due to preliminary final against Hawthorn (for example) at the MCG this year, they can elect to spend their ‘banked’ final.

                The game would be moved to Adelaide Oval despite Adelaide being the away team.

                I think that’s a fair compromise.

                Obviously not completely fair because the biggest game of the year is at the MCG, but much fairer than the present system wouldn’t you agree?

              • April 13th 2018 @ 4:35pm
                jonboy said | April 13th 2018 @ 4:35pm | ! Report

                Not going to happen Johnno.

              • April 13th 2018 @ 7:08pm
                BigAl said | April 13th 2018 @ 7:08pm | ! Report

                “…fair compromise.”

                Hah ! – tell that to the side that is giving up their home final !!

              • Roar Pro

                April 14th 2018 @ 2:04pm
                anon said | April 14th 2018 @ 2:04pm | ! Report

                Hah ! – tell that to the side that is giving up their home final !!

                Tell it to the interstate team that has to play their home Grand Final at the MCG.

          • April 13th 2018 @ 12:48pm
            Philby said | April 13th 2018 @ 12:48pm | ! Report

            The ‘dimensions’ issue is a funny one.

            Where Subiaco was much longer and narrower than the MCG, along with Kardinia Park, the Adelaide oval is something like 5 metres longer and 4 metres narrower.

            So, from the centre of the ground to the goals at AO is all of 2.5 metres longer, and each wing is 2 metres narrower – is that really a substantial difference? Is that enough for the SA teams to have to change game style to suit the MCG?

      • Roar Pro

        April 13th 2018 @ 1:18pm
        anon said | April 13th 2018 @ 1:18pm | ! Report

        I just don’t understand the point of playing 6 months of football to determine the best team of the year — only for the integrity of the result to be completely and utterly compromised by hosting the most important match at the MCG whether or not the Victorian team actually earned that massive home ground advantage.

        I can’t take the AFL seriously. I’ll still watch because what else is there to watch during an afternoon in winter, but the end result is as compromised as a WWE match.

        Playing the Grand Final at the MCG is what happened for decades in the VFL because of capacity and accessibility. Made sense to have the Grand Final in Melbourne when 11 of 12 teams were in inner-suburban or suburban Melbourne.

        It’s been the AFL since 1990. They introduced interstate finals in 1991 in acknowledgement of the enormous travel burden interstate teams face.

        The next step are Grand Finals being awarded to the highest ranking Grand Finalist.

        If we can’t have that, then best of 3 will be an acceptable compromise for now and step forward.

        Can’t have that, then I propose that interstate teams ‘bank’ finals.

        For instance, because Adelaide was forced to play the Grand Final at the MCG last year despite being the higher seeded team, then I propose that they are ‘owed’ a home final.

        For instance, if they have to play an away preliminary final against a Victorian team, then they have the right to use one of their home finals they have ‘banked’.

        The preliminary final would be moved to Adelaide Oval despite Adelaide being the lower seeded team.

        No less arbitrary than playing the Grand Final at the MCG no matter what.

      • April 14th 2018 @ 6:13am
        Chris said | April 14th 2018 @ 6:13am | ! Report

        True Tiger Fan, we were playing the reigning premiers that year, too. For your information
        Melbourne 12.12 (84) Collingwood 10.13 (73) MCG 99,256 16 June 1958.
        We will take on the reigning premier on again and it’ll be on for young and old…

    • Roar Rookie

      April 13th 2018 @ 9:11am
      Lamby said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:11am | ! Report

      The Crows in 2017 were outstanding in the rain. But the Crows 2017 had 2 x Crouch boys. Having both of them out has really affected how the Crows move the ball.

      I can’t see how the Pies can score enough to beat the Crows.

    • April 13th 2018 @ 9:22am
      AD said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:22am | ! Report

      Strange selection by the Crows, losing a small forward in Murphy and replacing him with a tall in Fogarty. 5 talls (Walker, Jenkins, Lynch, McGovern, Fogarty) sounds pretty top heavy for the very wet and windy conditions forecast. I’d expect at least 1 late change. If Fogarty does play, it may be because they intend use him as a ground level crash-and-bash type player rather than a marking target.

      • April 13th 2018 @ 9:50am
        Birdman said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:50am | ! Report

        good point AD but jeez I like the cut of Fogarty’s jib – will be a gun.

        • April 13th 2018 @ 12:43pm
          Philby said | April 13th 2018 @ 12:43pm | ! Report

          I agree. Saw him in the JLT where he kicked 3.

          Sometimes you just know straight away.

          Tex will have to stay on his game, or he may lose his spot!

          • April 13th 2018 @ 2:28pm
            AD said | April 13th 2018 @ 2:28pm | ! Report

            Walker will be 28 this year. I suspect he’s got maybe another 3 years and he’ll be finished, just as Fogarty is ready to take over full time.

    • Roar Rookie

      April 13th 2018 @ 9:33am
      Mattician6x6 said | April 13th 2018 @ 9:33am | ! Report

      I got a feeling collingwood is going to push the crows tonight till adl kick away in last 15mins to win by 27pts

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