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AFL Power Rankings 2018: Round 4

AdelaideDocker Roar Guru

By AdelaideDocker, AdelaideDocker is a Roar Guru

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105 Have your say

    What a wild week in football. Upsets, appalling performances and mightily impressive wins. No wonder, then, that seventeen teams move in the rankings.

    1.Sydney Swans
    Last week: 1

    Excellent win, and easily the best (and closest) game of the weekend. The Swans are probably the best-placed side, and would probably be favourites to dispatch of the Crows on Friday night.

    2.GWS Giants
    Last week: 3

    Like Geelong, nothing too notable here. Just a comfortable victory over a lower-ranked side at a home-ground where they have an especially good record at.

    3.Hawthorn
    Last week: 5

    I didn’t think they’d be finals aspirants. I especially didn’t think they’d be finals aspirants after four rounds. I (and it pains me to say this) might be wrong.

    4.Port Adelaide
    Last week: 2

    Well, their winning streak came to an abrupt end. There were some doubts over whether or not they’d win, but they largely failed to show a sniff. Still, their first three weeks held them in good steed, but they’re probably lucky not to fall further.

    5.Richmond
    Last week: 6

    It’s not hard to look good when the opposition’s so inept. Reigning premiers comfortably beating the reigning wooden-spooners isn’t an unusual headline, but ‘reigning premiers hold the reigning wooden-spooners goalless until almost three-quarter time’ is.

    6.Geelong
    Last week: 7

    No surprises here. A win over the Saints was Geelong doing as expected, and they made it through with no injuries.

    7.Adelaide
    Last week: 4

    Not a good night, no matter which way you put it. It was wet, sure, but Adelaide just played dumb footy, and failed to adapt the challenge posed to the Pies. They cannot afford to be as complacent against the Swans on Friday night.

    8.West Coast
    Last week: 9

    Like North and Hawthorn, the Eagles are a team that have surprised me. Big win, return of JJK and they’re 3-1. Not bad for a team predicted to encounter doom and gloom this year.

    9.Essendon
    Last week: 10

    Needed a response after a poor few weeks, and got it with their domination of Port. Fantastic day, and Jake Stringer’s four goals were the cherry on top.

    10.Melbourne
    Last week: 8

    What on Earth? So excellent for the first quarter, so damn poor for the three remaining terms. Almost quintessentially Melbourne, to be honest.

    11.Collingwood

    Never been as pleasantly surprised during a live blog as I was on Friday night. Being masters of ‘backs-to-the-wall’ footy is a weird thing to excel at, but they won’t mind. Great win.

    12.Fremantle
    Last week: 10

    Had a good fortnight, but found Canberra’s winds and GWS’s goodness a little tough. Nothing to be disgraced by, though. Bulldogs next weekend is winnable, then it’s the derby.

    13.North Melbourne
    Last week: 15

    North truly aren’t as bad at this footballing caper as we think. 2-2 is not too bad a position to be in, but the Hawks next week will be a challenge. A welcome challenge, perhaps.

    14.Western Bulldogs
    Last week: 17

    The first two weeks are forgotten, and while they didn’t win against the Swans, no one can doubt the fact that they were in the game for its entirety. Fremantle over in Perth this weekend will be interesting to watch.

    15.Gold Coast
    Last week: 13

    Tough fortnight. The loss to Freo was excusable, somewhat, but the flop against the Eagles was frustrating. They’ll head back to Queensland with their tails between their legs, but confident they could win against the Lions in next weekend’s Q-Clash.

    16.Brisbane Lions
    Last week: 14

    It’s hard to know which words describe Saturday’s performance. Apt options include: ghastly, horrid, despicable, god-awful. I understand young teams will have peaks and troughs, but that was as rough a performance I’ve seen from any team in a long, long time.

    17.St Kilda
    Last week: 18

    A tough year gets tougher. Another loss, but the bigger concern would be Dylan Roberton’s collapse. Frightening vision.

    18.Carlton
    Last week: 16

    Horrifyingly and excruciatingly bad. Brisbane’s worse performance a few hours earlier saves it from being worst of the week, or does it?

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    The Crowd Says (105)

    • April 16th 2018 @ 9:54am
      Scott said | April 16th 2018 @ 9:54am | ! Report

      I’m gonna try not to be to critical because I know this is all just a bit of fun, but I’m seeing this weeks rankings a bit out of whack. For starters port nearly lose to Brisbane last week then lose this week and are ahead of Richmond who just absolutely destroyed Brisbane?

      • April 16th 2018 @ 10:07am
        Neil from Warrandyte said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:07am | ! Report

        I was just thinking the same thing. Port has been given too much credit for its one win against Sydney, has done nothing much otherwise as their two other wins came at the expense of Brisbane and Fremantle at home.

      • April 16th 2018 @ 10:09am
        Wally said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:09am | ! Report

        Not to mention Hawthorne are also ranked ahead of Richmond and Richmond showed they are comfortably better than them last week…. Hawthorne missed Burgoyne and Sicily, yet we were missing Prestia Caddy Broad Rioli.

        • April 16th 2018 @ 2:08pm
          Birdman said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:08pm | ! Report

          doesn’t quite work like that Wally old mate

      • April 16th 2018 @ 10:23am
        truetigerfan said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:23am | ! Report

        No offence taken on your positioning of the Tigers in your Power Rankings, AD. It was a case of boys playing against men after all. Yet Richmond continue to lairise forward of centre! Could be an issue against stronger opposition. Still a lot of work and fine tuning to be done. The season remains a marathon . . . we will get better!

        • April 16th 2018 @ 2:42pm
          tibor nagy (big four sticks) said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:42pm | ! Report

          TTF: We haven’t even got out of second gear and we are handing out drubbings. So much for the over rated Springfield Isotopes. I picked this and all the Tiger haters laughed, and said they took it up to Port, so you guys better watch out. What they don’t understand is that Port are only good when the game is on their terms. They also don’t realise that we never get ahead of ourselves at Tiger Land. The Spread Eagle was rocking on Saturday night, even though Greg didn’t put on a barrel.

          It’s still Tiger time folks! We will go back to back, so hop aboard the Tiger train, running express to the premiership.

      • Roar Guru

        April 16th 2018 @ 12:59pm
        AdelaideDocker said | April 16th 2018 @ 12:59pm | ! Report

        Hey lads.

        Yeah, fair points all ’round. It was a tough one, primarily because the actual ladder is so close and there’s not a lot to differentiate some teams. Port’s still slightly higher because regardless of performances, Port was still technically the only unbeaten team headed into this week. Whilst their loss this week was a bad one, and Richmond were clinical in handling the Lions, Port’s standings the last few weeks still held them above the Tigers.

        Of course, swapping them around was a feasible option – and one I thought about last night: note my comments in Port’s paragraph where I note that they’re fortunate not to drop further.

        • Roar Guru

          April 16th 2018 @ 2:37pm
          JamesH said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:37pm | ! Report

          Definitely tough to order at the moment! I’d probably re-arrange 3-8 like this:

          Richmond
          Hawthorn
          Port
          West Coast
          Adelaide
          Geelong

          I think the Cats are a bit too high, considering they played three ordinary quarters in round three and the poor form of their opponent yesterday. They arguably don’t deserve to be ahead of Essendon either, since the Dons have at least beaten a couple of last year’s finalists.

    • April 16th 2018 @ 10:02am
      Mattyb said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:02am | ! Report

      Can we get a basic rundown of the formula being used for these power rankings and over how many weeks are being used?

      • Roar Guru

        April 16th 2018 @ 12:55pm
        AdelaideDocker said | April 16th 2018 @ 12:55pm | ! Report

        I prioritise the performance in that week, but I’ll also consider the performances of the preceding few weeks. There’s no specific numerical guidelines or anything. Any other specific questions?

        • April 16th 2018 @ 2:38pm
          I ate pies said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:38pm | ! Report

          So, given that the Dogs lost against Sydney in the last minute, and should have won, and they best Essendon easily last week, shouldn’t they at least be ahead of Essendon? Sydney are first so the Dogs should be in the top 4.

          • Roar Guru

            April 16th 2018 @ 2:47pm
            AdelaideDocker said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:47pm | ! Report

            Nope, because the Dogs’ abhorrent first fortnight placed them in the bottom rungs of these rankings, and one good win (over Essendon) and a narrow loss doesn’t mean they jump from seventeenth to fourth in two weeks.

            • April 16th 2018 @ 3:19pm
              Mattyb said | April 16th 2018 @ 3:19pm | ! Report

              What do you mean “i”,is there actually a set formula or is it more ‘the vibe’ type rankings rather than power rankings?

              • Roar Guru

                April 16th 2018 @ 3:35pm
                AdelaideDocker said | April 16th 2018 @ 3:35pm | ! Report

                You seem to be quite aggrieved with these rankings!

                It’s just me. It’s a subjective exercise, Matty. No fancy set formula.

              • April 16th 2018 @ 3:55pm
                Mattyb said | April 16th 2018 @ 3:55pm | ! Report

                I’m not aggrieved just curious if these are power rankings like the title suggests or just a persons vibe rankings.

              • Roar Guru

                April 16th 2018 @ 3:59pm
                AdelaideDocker said | April 16th 2018 @ 3:59pm | ! Report

                The title never suggests it’ll be some objective, formulated ranking. If you want that, go here: http://www.afl.com.au/ladder

                It’s a subjective, opinionated article. That’s a fair bit of fun. And surprisingly difficult!

              • April 16th 2018 @ 4:15pm
                Matto said | April 16th 2018 @ 4:15pm | ! Report

                There used to be a formula for this tho right?
                It was pretty heatly debated then.
                I’m surprised the site has continued with it if it’s just going to be someone’s opinion.
                It would be very hard to not let your bias intefere.

              • April 16th 2018 @ 5:38pm
                Mattyb said | April 16th 2018 @ 5:38pm | ! Report

                The title clearly says Power Rankings.
                It says nothing about it being one persons opinion or ‘the vibe’.

              • April 17th 2018 @ 6:42am
                Slane said | April 17th 2018 @ 6:42am | ! Report

                ‘It says nothing about it being one persons opinion or ‘the vibe’.’

                That’s what power rankings are. You can hardly blame the author for your ignorance.

              • April 17th 2018 @ 9:00am
                mattyb said | April 17th 2018 @ 9:00am | ! Report

                Slane,power rankings have nothing to do with one person’s personal opinion.
                All I did was ask what kind of system the author was using and apparently it ‘the vibe’.
                Are you sure what a power ranking actually is?

              • April 17th 2018 @ 10:14am
                Football Head said | April 17th 2018 @ 10:14am | ! Report

                You seem to have it in your head that power rankings are only ever the result of advanced algorithms capable only of running only on super computers in the dead of night so they aren’t competeing with homes for electricity, and I really don’t understand why you’d think that?

                After all, Fox Footy’s power rankings are just the opinions of a couple of blokes too- this isn’t an unusual way to do them.

                And even if there was some super duper code that sorted the good wins from the meh wins, someone still has to make the code and weight all the stats- which I’d argue is worse then going off the vibe every round, because to run that code from week one you’d likely have to have decided on what the season was going to be like before it started (like whether an away win was better than a home win, and how much better away wins are going to be this year, or whether a win in the pouring rain by a point is worth more than a win in the dry by a point, and guessing how many games will take place in the pouring rain so that if they outnumber dry games they don’t throw everything else off balance- basically it’s a minefield of subjectivity)- which is like going off the vibe before there’s even a vibe to go off.

                A power ranking is simply a ranking of teams in order of apparent ability irrespective of wins. That’s all. The method used doesn’t prevent them from being power rankings

              • Roar Guru

                April 17th 2018 @ 9:25am
                AdelaideDocker said | April 17th 2018 @ 9:25am | ! Report

                Oh, man. We’ve gotta try and fix this so these articles don’t disintegrate into arguments about the semantics behind power rankings.

                I’ll try and simplify it, Matty. There’s a few things I consider:

                that weeks performance: this is the most important, obviously
                the style of said weeks performance: lots of teams will win, lots will lose. it’s how they win or lose that interests me. a big win > small win > small loss > big loss.
                the quality of the opposition. a big win over a tough opposition will enthuse me more than a big win over weaker opposition. that’s the essence of the Richmond v Hawthorn debate this week; the quality of their opposition
                the previous weeks rankings. if a team ranked first in week four loses by 100, and a team ranked eighteenth wins by 100, they ain’t swapping places. the former will fall and the latter will rise, but how much by will relate with all the above variables.

                That’s about as good a summary as I can get it. Yes, it’s not objective in anyway other than the win/loss stats. It’s a very subjective exercise, and you’ll often find the essence of the ladder is the controversy it creates. Which is always a fun thing.

                There will occasionally regularly be tough calls. There might be mistakes, or contentious calls. It’s not going to be perfect, but that’s what an actual ladder is for.

              • April 17th 2018 @ 9:40am
                Birdman said | April 17th 2018 @ 9:40am | ! Report

                AD, I’d respectfully suggest you avoid pandering to a bunch of grown men throwing their toys out of the cot because you don’t rate their side as highly as them in any particular week.

                This is their problem, not yours.

              • Roar Guru

                April 17th 2018 @ 9:45am
                AdelaideDocker said | April 17th 2018 @ 9:45am | ! Report

                Oh, don’t worry Birdman, I wasn’t intending to! I figured it was probably best to throw a little description of the process just so everyone has a grounding of what occurs.

              • Roar Guru

                April 17th 2018 @ 9:59am
                Paul Dawson said | April 17th 2018 @ 9:59am | ! Report

                It won’t matter, Mattyb’s memory would make a goldfish look like a mensa member

                He’ll be backing complaining about some other obscurantism next week I assure you.

                What’s wrong with personal opinion on an opinion site. Honestly, you’re a bunch of limp-wristed dishwatery tossers, get over it. As other said, read the ladder or champion data if you want rankings based on mathematical formula

            • April 17th 2018 @ 7:23am
              I ate pies said | April 17th 2018 @ 7:23am | ! Report

              But Essendon were ordinary a week ago, so how come they’re still 9th? Fair enough it’s a ‘vibe’ thing, but there needs to be some sort of logic to it.

              • Roar Guru

                April 17th 2018 @ 9:08am
                AdelaideDocker said | April 17th 2018 @ 9:08am | ! Report

                The Bombers were 10th last week, so they’ve moved up.

                Collingwood’s 15th -> 11th is the biggest move this week, on the basis of their impressive win.

    • April 16th 2018 @ 10:17am
      Joe said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:17am | ! Report

      Geelong didn’t make it through with no injuries, Cory Gregson went off in the first half.

      • Roar Guru

        April 16th 2018 @ 12:54pm
        AdelaideDocker said | April 16th 2018 @ 12:54pm | ! Report

        Oh, sorry! I was writing this midway through the Geelong game, and didn’t see the Gregson injury. Oversight on my behalf!

    • April 16th 2018 @ 11:58am
      The Ghost said | April 16th 2018 @ 11:58am | ! Report

      The worst thing about living in Adelaide is putting up with the arrogant Crows fans. They weren’t so arrogant when they got a nice little touch up from the Maggot Pies.

      Port once again prove that they are the most dishonest side in the league. They struggled against the cellar dwelling rabble from up North, which saw the media pump up the Lions. The Bummers sent them packing back over the border.

      As for Brisbane, even the sad old tragic born to rule mob put up a better challenge against us in round one. You can put Richmond wherever you like on these rankings, but we all know they are the benchmark of excellence. We will go back to back.

      The Gold Coast have also been exposed, as when they are not playing minnows and the twentyj first century version of St skikda, they go to water.

      Eat ’em alive Tigers.

      • April 16th 2018 @ 1:03pm
        me too said | April 16th 2018 @ 1:03pm | ! Report

        Bit hard on the Suns – that was their fourth away game in a row. Only six more to come.

        • Roar Pro

          April 16th 2018 @ 10:12pm
          Doran Smith said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:12pm | ! Report

          It’s early to tell who is a contender yet.

      • April 16th 2018 @ 5:06pm
        Harsh Truth Harry said | April 16th 2018 @ 5:06pm | ! Report

        I remember Jimmy Jess, skin whiter than Michael Jackson. Looked like an amoea dipped in liquid paper.

        • Roar Rookie

          April 16th 2018 @ 10:30pm
          InvisiblePJs said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:30pm | ! Report

          To quote Greg Champion…. ‘Jimmy Jess, now he’s the best, looks good in makeup and a sexy dress…’

    • Roar Rookie

      April 16th 2018 @ 12:31pm
      WCE said | April 16th 2018 @ 12:31pm | ! Report

      Great win by the boys on Sat night and the noise from the crowd in the last quarter when the Eagles chant went up and the Mexican wave was defining and exhilarating. Wonderful to see big JK back in action and Jack darling , Brad Sheppard and Gaffy were simply terrific . With Venables out for a week or two maybe bring in Petrecelli for his first run or Partington . I cant wait for Ah Cee to be ready so we can throw him in the guts for some speed !

      • April 16th 2018 @ 12:48pm
        Anthony said | April 16th 2018 @ 12:48pm | ! Report

        Ah Chee I believe should be available this week but I think he’ll run with EP first though. I’d agree with seeing Partington or Petrecelli in if Venables has to rest. Was an excellent win though.

      • April 16th 2018 @ 2:24pm
        Andrew Browne said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:24pm | ! Report

        I would say the Eagles are a little low at 8/9 but I am happy if they continue to win but don’t creep up the ranks too quickly. Nice to see an easy win with NicNat performance a little down (variability to be expected for next few weeks as he gets used to the game again). JFK was rusty – dropped some marks he wouldn’t normally and kicking a little wayward, that should improve but the opposition was a little rabble like. Made the Doggies look very ordinary as well and they looked like world beaters the following week. So, who knows with the Eagles – some poor opposition, injuries to Geelong and home field advantage with some decent performances, really they could be anywhere for 2-12. This week v Carlton will, hopefully, not tell us much – if it does – it will be all bad.

    • April 16th 2018 @ 12:38pm
      true blue said | April 16th 2018 @ 12:38pm | ! Report

      I told you North Melbourne was not a winnable game.

      Already Carlton supporters are ringing up talk back radio, saying sack Bolton. Last night on SEN, one supporter said that we should get Eade. Eade hardly saved the Gold Coast. This belief that all we need is a Messiah to save us, is all to common at Carlton. This belief brought Judd to the club. Yes I loved watching Judd in the navy blue, my kids had his number on their jerseys, yet getting Judd, at the expense of keeping Kennedy was a mistake. He elevated Carlton to a position that flattered us. The board thought we were on the brink of top four, ditched Ratten and brought in Malthouse. Once again Carlton was destroyed by its own hubris. They wanted a quick fix rather than go through pain.

      Bolton is not the problem, as he can only work with the cattle he has. I fear he will be sacked at the end of this year, and once again the board will pursue some Messiah. The reality is Bolton was the only person who was keen on coaching Carlton, as they were seen as a train wreck. Don Pyke said no, Worsfold (who was an assistant at the club) said no, yet was happy to give it a go at Essendon, and Stewart Dew said no. Carlton have to realise that they have a long painful road ahead. There is no quick fix, silver bullet. or Messiah who will save us.

      Carlton have to drop this attitude that we are a big four club, as we no longer are. We should not be playing on Friday nights, as we do not perform well on the big stage, and quite frankly we do not deserve it. We have to no longer live in the past of the sixteen premierships, of which fifteen are VFL. We have to make a realistic assessment of S.O.S, as he may not be a brilliant recruiter.

      Carlton supporters have to be patient.

      • April 16th 2018 @ 2:10pm
        Birdman said | April 16th 2018 @ 2:10pm | ! Report

        Brett Rattan is waiting by the phone……

        • Roar Pro

          April 16th 2018 @ 10:16pm
          Doran Smith said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:16pm | ! Report

          I rate Brett Rattan as a Coach, but I don’t know if a change of Coach will help.

      • April 16th 2018 @ 8:24pm
        Liam said | April 16th 2018 @ 8:24pm | ! Report

        Bear in mind, most talkback radio stations have “Jim from Doncaster” who is also “Jim from Accounting” ring in, to overreact to any given game from the weekend. Get the ball rolling, and usually there’ll be plenty of sheep willing to follow.

        And talkback exists for the discontented. Who actually knows if those callers are legit, either because they’re plants or a vocal minority.

        • April 17th 2018 @ 2:07pm
          true blue said | April 17th 2018 @ 2:07pm | ! Report

          Like Snapper from Port Phillip Bay, the Collingwood supporter who masquerades as a Carlton fan.

      • Roar Pro

        April 16th 2018 @ 10:14pm
        Doran Smith said | April 16th 2018 @ 10:14pm | ! Report

        The Blues have made a lot of changes to their list so it will take time for them to be successful.

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