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How did the pundits get the Crows so wrong?

Roar Guru
20th April, 2018
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More details have come out about Adelaide's controversial preseason camp (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Roar Guru
20th April, 2018
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In what is likely to be looked back on as a season-defining result, a much-maligned Adelaide got the job done against Sydney on Friday night at the SCG, recording a ten-point victory.

Heading into the contest you could be forgiven for deciding to give it a miss based on the public perception of what was supposed to be a foregone conclusion. Both the media and punters alike on social media were predicting a comfortable Swans victory.

While it’s likely to be an unpopular comparison, the Friday night thriller is easy to compare to the United States 2016 presidential election.

Heading into the election Hillary Clinton (Sydney) was the media’s darling, expected to romp home with an easy win against the unfancied Donald Trump (Adelaide).

Convinced that the result was a foregone conclusion, in both head-to-head encounters onlookers overlooked a slew of evidence that the underdog was capable of claiming a shock win.

So just how did the footy world read the Crows so wrong?

Taylor Walker

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

The Sydney Cricket Ground is far from a fortress for the current 22 running around in Swans colours. Sydney has played at the SCG three times this season and has now lost twice – the first loss was a 23-point defeat against Port Adelaide in Round 2. Interesting to note is that both sides to best Sydney at this SCG this season have been South Australian squads.

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Turning back the clock further, the Swans were less than convincing on Friday nights at the SCG in 2016.

In Round 3 the Swans were defeated by Collingwood by one point, in Round 10 they were defeated by six points and in Round 14 the Swans recorded a gruelling one-point victory against Essendon.

No Buddy Franklin, no Sydney?

Sydney’s 75-point haul against the Crows was the team’s second-lowest score of the season so far, beaten only by its 71-point score against Port.

In an attempt to swing for the fences and pull off a big win, Adelaide applied plenty of pressure on Lance Franklin as the centrepiece of the Sydney attack. The strategy proved successful.

Franklin, leading the race for the Coleman Medal with 18 goals to his name, managed just a single goal and three behinds coming from 11 disposals and without a goal assist.

Lance Franklin of the Sydney Swans

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

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With all the pressure heaped on Franklin the remainder of the Swans failed to step up into the vanguard, with Gary Rohan the only multiple goal-kicker with two.

So far this season Franklin, as he always tends to do, has been the key chess piece in Sydney wins, particular in last-quarter efforts, and it’s appearing more and more likely that limiting Franklin is the simple path to victory over the Swans.

Sydney’s fate was sealed in the second quarter when Franklin was hit up by a fantastic pass on the half forward flank, played on off the mark and from long range was unable to enter his kicking motion. He was simply gobbled up by four hard-running defensive Crows without another Swan in sight.

The ball quickly fired up the other end for a goal on the run in less than 20 seconds, resulting in what could easily be seen as unofficial 12-point play against Sydney – a 12-point play that in the grand scheme of the match resulted in a win for Adelaide.

It’s worth noting too that Franklin wasn’t the only key Swan rubbed out of the page, with midfield juggernaut Josh Kennedy kept to just 13 touches all night.

Josh P Kennedy Sydney Swans AFL 2017

(AAP Image/David Moir)

Adelaide deserve respect and are rarely given it anymore, and it would be remiss to spend so much energy bringing the Swans down a peg and not reflecting on the superb effort by Adelaide.

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All week the Crows were torn apart in the media following the side’s abysmal showing against Collingwood in Round 4, with captain Tex Walker once again taking the brunt of the fury.

It’s been a theme in the football world since last September when the Crows, heavily favoured heading into the grand final, failed to arrive against Richmond and walked away without the premiership after a dominant run through the season.

Walker replied with four goals and was accompanied by twin tower Josh Jenkins with three and the always impressive Rory Aitkens with three.

The Crows did it all without key small forward and energy barometer Eddie Betts, impressive newcomer Darcy Fogarty and the midfield machine of Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch and Brad Crouch.

If the Crows are able to rise to great heights in 2018, perhaps even seeking revenge after the crushing defeat at the hands of Richmond in the 2017 grand final, this win is likely to be looked back on as a defining mark on the season at large and possibly many individual careers.

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