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The Melbourne Demons and Richmond Tigers will go into their Tuesday night Round 5 match off the back of results that could hardly have been more disparate.
Both sides played here at the MCG just last week, but while Richmond were never challenged by the Brisbane Lions, Melbourne found themselves flattened by Hawthorn despite dominating the opening stanza.
The Demons just could not cope with the ferocious tackling pressure of the Hawks who laid a ridiculous 2.4 tackles per minute of opposition possession, a tackle roughly every 25 seconds when a Melbourne player held the ball.
While these teams saw very different results on the scoreboard last week, they are alike in that both have been forced to make some changes.
Melbourne have brought Dom Tyson and Jayden Hunt back into the team and have also called up Sam Weideman and Billy Stretch for their first games of the year.
They replace Sam Frost, Tomas Bugg and Bailey Fritsch who have been omitted, and Jordan Lewis who will miss through injury.
It’s a net loss in terms of experience in the 22. The Dees will field a side with 1736 AFL games under their belt, the least experienced team they’ve named so far this year.
In fact, 287-gamer Lewis alone boasts more AFL experience than all four of Melbourne’s inclusions combined, though I doubt Dees fans will lose too much sleep over his absence.
He hasn’t exactly flourished so far in his new role as a defender, averaging his least disposals per game since 2010, least tackles per game in ten years, and least marks per game ever in his career.
Richmond also find themselves fielding a less experienced side this week than they did last as a result of injuries to Josh Caddy and Nick Vlastuin. Jack Graham will also miss through suspension.
Nathan Broad, Sam Lloyd and Jack Higgins are the inclusions – relatively like-for-like replacements.
The Tigers still enter this match as the more experienced side, by a margin of more than 500 games, a factor which I expect to prove telling in the result.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
In the preseason I said that Melbourne are the one side in the league who can dream of emulating the gameplan that won Richmond the premiership last year, and while the Dees certainly haven’t gotten there yet, I stand by it.
These sides do have their similarities. Both have shown a willingness to tackle and put pressure on their opponents, gaining possession of the ball by forcing the opposition to turn it over.
Both sides create a turnover roughly once every 40 seconds of opposition possession, impressive numbers.
It’s here where the similarities stop however because in terms of capitalising on the turnovers they create, Richmond are by far the more effective team.
So far in 2018 they have notched 311 points from intercepts – nearly three quarters of their total score for the year, and 121 more than their opposition so far.
Melbourne, despite averaging seven more intercepts per game than their opponents this year, have scored 12 points less from them than their adversaries.
Richmond score 0.98 points per intercept, half again better than Melbourne with 0.63.
How? There’s a few factors. For one, the Tigers have shown a willingness to take the game on and play with pace, recording +2 bounces per game. Melboure are -11 for the year.
The Tigers have also been more efficient once they do get the ball forward, scoring from 50 per cent of forward 50 entries, as opposed to Melbourne’s 46 per cent.
However perhaps the most telling factor so far is the simple one of accuracy in front of the big sticks.
The Tigers are kicking goals from 62 per cent of their chances, while Melbourne are no better than a 50/50 bet to convert.
The net result is that Richmond in 2018 score 2.03 points per minute of possession, while Melbourne can only manage 1.74.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Those numbers suggest Richmond will win and so the question becomes, if Melbourne are going to pull off an upset, how will it be done?
Dominance through the middle of the ground is one possibility. Max Gawn has been in rippingly good form this year – the Dees boast +25 hitouts per game on their opponents and +3.25 centre clearances.
They’ve scored 141 points from stoppages this year compared to Richmond’s 96.
Their Round 3 win over North Melbourne was built on this – they were on that day one of very few sides this year to win a game despite conceding more points from turnovers than their opponents, thanks to their dominance in the centre.
Toby Nankervis for all the good things that can be said about him is no match for Max Gawn so expect the Dees to have an advantage at the coalface, but I don’t think it will translate to a win.
Instead Melbourne’s best chance at victory will be hoping that their side can click together, and the inclusions of Jayden Hunt and Billy Stretch in particular boost the chances of this happening.
Both offer speed and silk, two ingredients that have been lacking in the Dees’ approach to 2018 so far, no doubt a part of why they’re failing to capitalise on the turnovers they work hard to create.
They’ve got a number of players also like Michael Hibberd and Jake Lever who are playing well below their capabilities right now. There’s a lot of room for improvement in this side if they can find their groove.
That’s something that could happen tonight… but I’m tipping that it won’t, not completely. I expect an improved effort after their debacle in Round 4 certainly, but I don’t think all the pieces will fall into place for Melbourne until Jack Viney and Tom McDonald return.
Confidence is essential. This more experienced Richmond side seems to play with it most if not all weeks. Melbourne don’t.
The situation being what it is, I reckon this is a game that Richmond win about seven or eight times out of ten. I’ll tip them to get the job done tonight by three goals.
That’s my Anzac Eve forecast – what’s yours?