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We’re at the midpoint of the Super Rugby season. Following popular demand after reviewing teams one month after making the pre-season predictions, it’s time to pass judgement once again.
Now, you might recall in recent years that there has never been a follow-up to the first month report card, but given the up-and-down nature of so may teams already this season – recall the graphs from a fortnight ago – I think another report card as so many of you requested is a worthy exercise.
And it probably represents the first chance to start ruling out some sides from any designs on reaching the playoffs this season. The mid-table bunching has thinned out a bit, due mainly to wins over the weekend for the Bulls, Sharks, and even the Jaguares, whose 25-20 win over the Brumbies in Canberra saw them jump from 13th overall to tenth.
We’ll get to what this all means in a moment; first, here’s those re-calibrated predictions after the first report.
RECAP: the revised predictions one month in
CONFERENCE WINNERS: Lions, Hurricanes, Rebels
WILDCARDS (fourth to eighth): Crusaders, Stormers, Highlanders, Waratahs, Brumbies.
Form and momentum is a fickle beast at the best of times, and for some teams is currently a week-to-week proposition.
At the time of writing the first report, the Stormers were easily the next-best side in South Africa and loomed as the only likely challengers to the Lions for the conference. Now, they’re fifth in the conference and in a huge battle even just to get back into wildcard contention.
Conversely, the Sharks returned from their trans-Tasman tour with some confidence, and used that against the Stormers in Round 10, bouncing back from the thumping from the Bulls the week before. The Bulls, on the other hand, had a terrible tour of Australia and New Zealand, but have now won their last three games back in South Africa.
Both are sitting way more comfortably than the Stormers, and the Bulls have impressed since returning to the Republic.
And the sudden rise of the Jaguares only compounds things, sitting just three and two points behind the Bulls and Sharks respectively, and just outside the wildcard spots. But who can trust this form to continue?
The Hurricanes and Crusaders will continue to battle for the lead in New Zealand – they’ve swapped back and forward at least four times already – but the Highlanders have proven they will have a role to play in the final ordering, having already beat the Crusaders, and sitting just one win back with a game in hand.
(Photo by Rob Jefferies/Getty Images)
The Chiefs looked like they could fall either way at the time of the last report card but have since won four of their last five games and building some serious momentum. Damien McKenzie grows as a controlling flyhalf every week, and he’ll be the vital cog for the Chiefs going forward.
I had the Waratahs topping the Australian conference before the season started but regretted that one almost immediately and quickly switched to the then unbeaten Rebels a month later. Another month or so on, I could flip a coin, which seems to match how quickly their respective form line switches.
The Rebels seem to have lost the ability to play games out, while the Waratahs’ best and worst is pole apart and worryingly interchangeable.
But they remain the likely Australian contenders, because the Brumbies and Reds have fallen right away in terms of consistency and an ability to find points.
The Brumbies have a defensive record bettered by only three other teams in the competition, but in their last four games since their bye have scored 20, 17, 45, and 17 points and averaged just over three tries a game.
The Reds have the same issue with scoring points – they’ve crossed for just 15 tries in eight games – but now their previously solid defence is being breached, conceding 36, 37, and 45 points (against the Brumbies, coincidently) in their last three games since their bye.
The Lions still look comfortable; it’s a two-horse race in Australia but for all the wrong reasons, while New Zealand remains and close and tightly-contested as ever.
(AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Wildcards: Third time’s a charm…
So, while I felt at the time Australia was in a better position than South Africa, and capable of supplying three teams for the playoffs, that confidence has quickly eroded over the last fortnight particularly.
But before you South Africans start cheering, I’m not so sure that means the third playoff spot goes to you.
With the Crusaders currently holding the New Zealand conference lead, the Hurricanes, Chiefs, and Highlanders hold the first three wildcard positions. And only the most optimistic Australians and South Africans would suggest that won’t continue.
The Rebels best bet will be to catch the Waratahs one way or another, and until then, they’re battling with the like of the Bulls, Sharks, and maybe the Jaguares, Brumbies, and Stormers for the final two wildcard slots.
But I’ll be honest, I think the Brumbies and Stormers are just about done and ready to incur the wrath of the red pen through their season. I think the next fortnight decides their fate (and the Brumbies have a bye), and more losses will consign them to the wastelands currently occupied by the Sunwolves and Blues, and soon to be joined by the Reds.
The Jaguares and Sharks and in interesting places; with four and three wins respectively, they remain in touch with the top eight currently, but only have to look at the teams they’re only marginally ahead of to know they can’t afford to lose games in blocks.
Revised predictions – this time for reals
Funnily enough, I think we’ve got the top eight now. The ordering around the wildcards might change, but the way they sit right now looks pretty right to me.
CONFERENCE WINNERS: Lions, Crusaders, Waratahs
WILDCARDS (Fourth to eighth): Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders, Rebels, Bulls.