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Many people, including me, had shallow expectations for North Melbourne’s 2018 campaign, citing a weak list riddled with deficiencies.
It was estimated that their midfield was too young and lacked the talent to stand up against an established and well-drilled midfield.
North currently sits third on the AFL ladder after shocking both Hawthorn and the AFL community by dismantling and humiliating the fancied Hawks on Sunday. The Kangaroos demonstrated almost flawless football in the first half, resembling a premiership-contending team.
They were able to limit Hawthorn’s precision game with immense pressure and immaculate structure, forcing the Hawks to kick long down the line, where Robbie Tarrant and Scott Thompson were able to peel off an incredible 27 marks between them.
North’s efficiency inside 50 was phenomenal. Despite finishing with fewer inside 50s than the Hawks, North were able to produce 28 scoring shots to Hawthorn’s 15, with Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite combining for 13 scoring shots.
However, the question arises: is North’s success sustainable?
(Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
A simple glance at the ladder indicates that North Melbourne have established themselves as a team that will likely play finals, if not challenge for a top-four berth, but a closer look uncovers some less impressive signs.
North Melbourne so far this year have played Gold Coast (11th), Melbourne (14th), Carlton (18th), St Kilda (15th) and Hawthorn (6th). Having lost to Melbourne and Gold Coast already this year, the start of the season starts to become far less flattering.
Despite playing some of the less competitive sides so far this year, North is eighth in the league for inside 50s and is becoming highly reliant on contested marks inside 50 to create their scoring opportunities.
Such a playing style creates a vulnerability in adverse weather as well as opposition tactics, such as the positioning of a loose man in defence.
In North’s Round 1 loss to Gold Coast in Cairns torrential rain made marking the football impossible, resulting in Jarrad Waite and Ben Brown combining for only one behind between them and the team combining for five goals. North was just able to take 13 uncontested marks to Gold Coast’s 52.
Contrasting with the scintillating first-half against Hawthorn, the second half took a far different route. James Sicily was able to gain space and cut off North Melbourne’s contested inside-50 marks, significantly reducing North’s paths to goals, with only three goals being scored in the second half as opposed to 11 in the first.
North is also becoming highly reliant on contested possessions to generate their play, ranking third in contested possessions so far this season but sitting at 13th and 11th in uncontested and total possessions respectively.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
While a game focused on contested possessions has been a tactic used by successful sides (most notably Sydney) over recent seasons, the samples so far this season have been against some of the least prolific midfields in the competition.
The exception to this is Melbourne. The Demons midfield includes prodigious contested-ball winners Jordan Lewis, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney. In their Round 3 clash North Melbourne was slightly beaten in the contested possession count and subsequently was able to create only 45 inside 50s.
Early season form is something prominent in past campaigns from the Kangaroos. In 2016 North famously won their nine first games, but won only three more games for the rest of the season.
Although a smaller sample size, there is a worrying similarity between the 2016 and current seasons. In 2016 North Melbourne encountered weaker teams earlier in the season, similar to this year, and their style of play was eventually worked out by the stronger and better-drilled sides.
The adjustment made by the Hawks in the second half last week highlights that a similar trend could emerge this year.
North Melbourne compelled many supporters of the game with their performance on Sunday, but there have been some troubling signs in their style of play and a subsequent reliance on contested possessions and marks. I’ll be interested to see how their season unfolds.
How have you received North Melbourne’s early season performances?
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