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If the Blues and Jaguares have become untippable in 2018 – and they have – then Round 11 features the game we all fear the most.
Saturday night, 7:35pm local time, Eden Park: Blues v Jaguares.
I can’t speak for the other guys, but I’ve already resigned myself to getting this game wrong.
Of the Blues’ eight games, I’ve only got the result correct three times, and none involved picking the Blues. The three times I have picked them, they’ve failed me each time. The Jaguares are worse; again, I’ve got the result right only three times from nine games.
Twice I’ve picked them and they’ve lost; four times I’ve gone against them and they’ve won to spite me.
Look up untippable in the dictionary, and it will simply read, ‘Blues v Jaguares, Eden Park’.
LAST WEEK: Another perfect 7 for Nobes; 6 for Harry and Geoff; 5 for Digger, myself, and The Crowd.
OVERALL: Nobes 46; Geoff 42; Digger and The Crowd 41; Harry 40; Brett 39.
Nobes
TIPS: Hurricanes, Stormers, Lions, Blues, Crusaders, Bulls.
I was very lucky last round to get them all right. To tell you the truth some of the Round 10 games look pretty much straight forward now, but did not look that way before they were played. Round 11 looks a bit simpler.
The Hurricanes will get a bonus point win against the Sunwolves in Wellington, and the Stormers will take care of the Rebels in Cape Town. The so-called ‘slow’ strategy will not be enough for the visitors to prevent the home team, in a must win situation, from a bonus win.
Back in Australia the Lions will continue their tour with another win, this time the Reds will be their victim.
For the Jaguares to beat the Blues will mean a few firsts: first win in New Zealand, first time they beat a team from those Islands, and first time to make three consecutive wins. Blues with so many soldiers on the sidelines with injuries, and the way Jaguares are playing, it will be a no-brainer to tip Jaguares. But then, I am Nobrain after all.
Jaguares usually win when you do not expect them to do so, and usually lose when they feel overconfidence. So I will go with the Blues this time.
Brumbies will not be able to stop the Crusaders in Canberra and that will settle the round for the Australian teams.
The last game is a tricky one also, but I will have to go with home field advantage in this one. The “biting” Bulls will take care of the Highlanders.
SURE THING: Plenty of controversies and the press in Australia will be on fire one more week.
Harry
TIPS: Hurricanes, Stormers, Lions, Blues, Crusaders, Bulls.
To catch an Argie en fuego, you have to zig when he zags. Or jig when he Jags.
So, I’ll tip the Ioane Individual Over Team Blues, mostly because I think (1) Nobestradamus will stick with his homeboys, and (2) the Jags will be tired and already satisfied.
The Canes pick themselves. The tsunami of Barretts will continue. The lightly-coached Stormers are nigh impregnable at Newlands; is it a diet thing? The Rebels lost a few players, too. Stormers by a kick. The refreshed Lions will score too many tries for the Reds to match. The Dagg-added Crusaders are a Frankish juggernaut. And the Mitchell Bulls are looking ominous at lofty Loftus.
(Photo by Martin Hunter/Getty Images)
SURE THING: Raymond is going to have to do something special if he is catch Leaky Kwagga and Johnny be Bad Faauli. Lately, he’s been kind of a decent tackler!
Geoff
TIPS: Hurricanes, Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Crusaders, Highlanders
‘Canes by plenty. Always wanted to say that. No news on the Rebels line-up at deadline time means no option but to pick the Stormers at home. If Adam Coleman and a hooker are fit expect the Rebels to make a real go of it though.
It’s hard to see where the Reds have enough points in them to match whatever the Lions will run up against them, and while the Jaguares have never won three consecutive games on tour before, now is as good a time to start as any. Mario Ledesma has taught them how to win in Australia, it’s not a stretch to say he can do the same in Auckland.
Even if the Brumbies focus better on the game this week, the Crusaders will surely make it Kiwi win number 36 in Canberra.
Match of the round is in Pretoria, with the Bulls having made significant advances this season under John Mitchell versus a Highlanders side desperate to keep pace at the top of the uber-competitive New Zealand conference. Highlanders just, by the width of an Elliot Dixon hair braid.
SURE THING: Responding to coach Dan McKellar’s call for higher workrate, over the course of 80 minutes Henry Speight will pick three Crusaders up off the ground, help man the stretcher for another, ‘low five’ six opponents, gently ruffle the hair of another three, and guide Ryan Crotty off the field for his customary HIA.
(Photo by Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
Digger
TIPS: Hurricanes, Stormers, Lions, Blues, Crusaders, Highlanders
‘Canes by plenty.
The Stormers at Newlands are too appealing to ignore against the Rebels in their second week on tour while a rare afternoon delight in Brisbane should be a physical encounter, but the Lions look too good for the Reds.
(AAP Image/Craig Golding)
The Jaguares are unbelievable odds against the Blues and I would have thought they would be a lot shorter but after two wins away, have they found consistency, or will they revert to inconsistency? I honestly do not know so when in doubt, I will back the home side on this occasion.
I have no reason to doubt the Crusaders will not win in Canberra, and in what I am picking will be the game of the round, I will back my fellow countrymen though with not a lot of confidence against a resurgent Bulls side.
SURE THING: With Asafo Aumua definitely not going to break his duck in try scoring this weekend, I will have to find some new material and I am picking the game in Pretoria will be decided by a controversial TMO decision favouring the away side.
Brett
TIPS: Hurricanes, Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Crusaders, Bulls
I tend to agree with Nobes this week, that Round 11 does seem straight forward. Which now has me on obvious edge for the rest of the weekend.
‘Canes by plenty will be pretty accurate, I feel. I’m sure the Sunwolves will pull an upset or two somewhere along the line this season, but it won’t be this week. But a friendly reminder, that *when* the Mighty Aussie Moondogs do win this weekend, the trans-Tasman hoodoo will be over!
I don’t think the Rebels where that far behind the Bulls last week, just that the Bulls were less-terrible for a little bit longer. And I’m even quite sure the Rebels will push the Stormers at Newlands on Friday night all the way. But ultimately, ‘Stormers at Newlands’ are the keywords there.
Lions have too many points for the Reds’ defence, and the Reds’ defence doesn’t have enough points for the Lions defence. I genuinely look forward to getting the Crusaders over the Brumbies wrong; that would genuinely make my weekend, given I’m going to miss the game. And I think a combination of the Bulls being at home again, and the Highlanders’ first game on tour tips the scales to the home side.
So then, that just leaves Blues v Jaguares. And I have literally no idea. The Blues can’t be relied on, not even at home. The Jaguares can’t be relied on, even when they’re playing as well as have in the last two weeks.
But Nico Sanchez is the difference; he’s controlling the Jags really well currently, and when he’s on like he has been, he reminds you why his best is right up there with the best 10s in the game. Deep breath… gulp… Jaguares.
SURE THING: Much rejoicing when at least one Australian team match result is wrong!
Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.
Who have you got, Roarers? Who gets your tip? Got a sure thing yourself? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend…