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The A-League semi-finals get underway tonight with the Newcastle Jets hosting Melbourne City, with a place in the grand final up for grabs.
So who’s going to take the prize? That’s a matter for myself and fellow Roar expert Tim Palmer to debate.
Tim Palmer
Newcastle Jets will beat Melbourne City because they do something very simple, very effectively.
There has been a proliferation of new-age football tactics in recent years, but ultimately the core principle of any approach is based around the idea of scoring more goals than the opposition. In that sense, one of the most effective, if not the most effective, way to achieve this is to get in behind the opposition defence, into a goal scoring position.
That might sound simple, but it has been a cornerstone of the Jets’ fine season.
Ernie Merrick has been widely praised for giving his players freedom in the final third, but what he really has done has given them the freedom to constantly make forward runs.
The likes of Andrew Nabbout, Joey Champness, Jason Hoffman and Riley McGree, with their speed, mobility and directness, were/are perfect for this, as they constantly make darting runs between defenders, threatening the spaces in behind.
This forces defences deeper to reduce the space available, which in turn creates more room between the lines for the playmakers – Dimitri Petratos, Patricio Rodriguez and Ronald Vargas.
The Jets are particularly effective because the back four and two central midfielders know that the front four can make these forward runs, and try and play forward passes into these areas whenever possible. As a result, Newcastle are devastatingly good when they release teammates in behind, making defences turn, and driving towards goal.
They are particularly good against teams that defend in a tight, compact unit, but don’t necessarily put high pressure on the ball. Warren Joyce’s Melbourne City focus on closing passing lanes and staying organized, which makes it difficult to play through them. The Jets can play beyond them, though, and with simple but effective forward runs, and forward passes, Ernie Merrick’s team is capable of pushing City back, and then out of the A-League finals race.
(Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Stuart Thomas
As challenging as the environment may prove to be on Friday night at McDonald Jones Stadium, Melbourne City will be fine.
In years past we couldn’t have said that and if we did, we would have been sent off to enjoy our final days with the professional care necessary for someone with such a deluded grip on reality. However, this time around it is different.
As much of a scoring and attacking threat that the Newcastle Jets pose, it is one which City have encountered and handled before and the methods of Ernie Merrick will not change at the eleventh hour.
City have twice come from behind to earn points against the Jets this season, once at home and once away, and thumped the Novacastrians in Round 25. Most of that occurred before the southerners had the full version of themselves on show.
The reality is that Daniel Arzani became something of a focal point with the departure of Ross McCormack yet at times appeared to be playing a lone hand. The return of Bruno Fornaroli and the invigorated Dario Vidosic added the final pieces of the puzzle and finally provided Warren Joyce with the balance he required up front.
As dangerous as any front three, the weaponry is locked and loaded. Defensively, and with only 33 goals conceded throughout the home and away season, City haven’t been busted wide open by Newcastle, who have managed 57 goals in attack. They have embarrassed other defences but not City.
There is something about the way Bart Schenkeveld, Michael Jakobsen and Osama Malik have handled the speed of the Jets attacking raids that suggests they have their measure.
It therefore stands to reason that what the visitors will do well on Friday is maintain that solid defensive mindset. It requires complete concentration, as Merrick will instruct his wide players to play the ball early and often yet the structure at the back is solid enough to hold.
Once comfortable in repelling attacks, City will go to work at the other end of the pitch and give the home side so many defensive headaches that their own attacking game may suffer.
City will march on to a Grand Final against the winner of the Big Blue and years of anguish will be one step closer to being eradicated.