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Heading into Round 10, and knowing I wasn’t going to see a lot of it over the course of a long weekend away, I posed the curious question under last Thursday’s tipping panel discussion for the round.
“If there is going to be one upset this round, as there often is, who is pulling it off and why?”
Some suggested the Rebels might crack the Newlands stronghold of the Stormers, others pondered the Blues being more trustworthy than the Jaguares, and there was even credit being given the Highlanders at Loftus – though to be fair, the last two really couldn’t have been considered upsets in the true sense, given both sides won the nod as The Crowd’s pick in the respective games.
But there was going to be an upset somewhere along the way; we’ve all seen enough of this current season to know that even when things seem obvious, there’s always a curveball coming from somewhere.
So props to Roarer AJ, who offered up later that night, “Reds can do it, it’d be a big’un but they have it within them.”
It was, indeed, “a big’un”. A big’un that I suspect this young squad will revisit several times over their journey.
Catching up via replays or recorded games is never ideal and is rarely fulfilling; the ability to rewind and replay, or fast-forward through stoppages only emphasising that ‘hands off’ feel about having missed the game in the first place. And it’s generally worse when the score is already known before hitting ‘play’.
But knowing that they got out to a 24-0 lead at halftime, and 27-0 soon after, it was fascinating to see a Reds side build this sort of lead purely off defensive pressure. Against the side that had scored ten more tries than the next-best attacking team going into Round 11, Queensland didn’t just trouble the Lions with their defence, they dominated them, pressured them into mistakes, and then converted those opportunities into points.
JP Smith and George Smith scored from sheer determination at the set piece; Caleb Timu made a beautiful defensive read to snavel a blindside intercept and run 60 metres. Brandon Paenga-Amosa scooped up a loose ball next to the posts and dived forward.
That Paenga-Amosa’s try was the only one that came from what you’d class as true backline attack means nothing, but the fact it did come from young flyhalf Hamish Stewart taking on the line and making a clean break in the central corridor is really encouraging for this developing side.
Stewart played nothing like the perfect game of rugby. Before that decision to step and take on the Lions’ midfield defence, he’d sprayed kicks out on the full, left midfield bombs short, and even overplayed his hand a bit.
But he also made a stack of tackles – only two of his teammates made more – and generally chose the right time to send the ball wide, particularly knowing when to play to Samu Kerevi at inside centre, and when to use fullback Aidan Toua to play wider again. Stewart’s run to set up the Paenga-Amosa try was a great moment in vision and young talent backing themselves. That’s exactly the sort of moment the Reds have been promising their die-hard supporters.
This win showed that it is possible to add slivers attack to a platform of defence, which is always easier than trying do the opposite. It wasn’t a dominant attacking display by any stretch, but Queensland did make ground with the ball when it mattered, and in the right part of the field.
The ball-carrying numbers are as one-sided toward the Lions as the general territory and possession splits, which yet again proves that having all the ball, playing all the rugby, doesn’t mean a lot if you’re not doing anything with it.
Even when the Lions did get onto the scoreboard, the Reds’ defence kept forcing them into mistakes. Two unconverted tries after the 79th minute were enough to get the South Africans a losing bonus point, but the scoreline still flattered them massively.
We all know the Brad Thorn mantra; work hard for and with each other in a way that builds character and win with humility. This win was straight from the Thorn hymnbook, and can now be the springboard for the rest of the Reds’ season.
Brad Thorn (Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
On the other side of the coin was the Brumbies, who now face the prospect of winning six their last seven games to finish on the nine wins they would almost certainly need just to part of the wildcard conversation – never mind definitely claiming one of the spots.
Of those seven games, four will be away, including two in South Africa before the June Test window, plus two more away games after the June break.
But decision-making like the Brumbies showed on Saturday night means that notwithstanding the sudden invention of mass time-travel back to the glory days of the early-2000s, finals football is not something the fans, players and coaches will need to worry about.
As was the case against the Highlanders a few weeks back, not only could the Brumbies not take advantage of the Crusaders being one and then two men down to yellow cards, but they spent most of that time playing out of their own half, having given up the opportunity to attack the line.
I counted at least three occasions where the Brumbies kicked the ball away on attack, having either just regained possession through a turnover, or from straight-out attacking wave. The three occasions had this in common: players on the outside of the kicker, but who weren’t seen, because the kicker never looked for them. The instinct was that a speculative kick was a better option than trying to beat defenders with the ball.
On one, a three-on-two overlap on counter attack nearing halfway wasn’t seen, with a hacking kick downfield preferred; a kick the Crusaders comfortably cleared back into touch from where it came.
The decision to go away from a then-dominant scrum after the Crusaders lost lock Scott Barrett to the sin bin to a kick for the corner was interesting but somewhat understandable. What made no sense was then going to a four-man lineout on the Crusaders’ line, allowing Sam Whitelock a free opportunity to get up in front of the opposition jumpers, and with extra defenders on the ground to repel a Brumbies’ maul anyway.
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It was a crazy, frustrating, head-into-the-desk display from the Brumbies, and one that has illustrated their last three weeks. That impressive, seven-tries-to-two win over the Reds on April 7 that preceded three losses since seems like it was from another age.
The Reds have given themselves an opportunity to build an attack on top of the defence that has underpinned most of their 2018 campaign to date. They may not reach the playoffs anyway, but they’ve given themselves a platform from which to further their game over the rest of this season an into 2019.
The Brumbies aren’t even at that level, however. Their defence remains up there with the best in the competition, but their attack is so underwhelming that there is almost no upside to defending as comparatively well as they are.