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Just like daring to #TalkTheGameUp, the preseason prediction game is fun to do yet fraught with danger.
With little or no solid information to back us up, we put our reputations on the line with friends, family and people on Twitter who don’t know you but will gleefully remind you that five years ago you said Jack Wighton would play for Australia.
Part of the fun of making these big calls is giving them an occasional health check and with Round 8 of season 2018 out of the way, it’s time to assess where your prognostications are at.
This review gives three options for self-assessment. You can:
Dump, and prepare to face embarrassment for bailing so early.
Wait, because it’s only Round 8 after all…
Double down, because what you’ve seen so far makes you even more certain.
Be honest, be realistic and remember – there’s no shame in admitting a howler. I’ll go first…
North Queensland to win the premiership
Dump
You can hardly blame me for this one, can you? And don’t lie – I know you were on board with the 2017 grand finalists going one better after a fully fit Johnathan Thurston rejoined the squad.
I loved watching North Queensland’s barnstorming 2017 finals series on their way to the grand final. But after their start to 2018 it’s worth taking a cold-blooded look at things and to be honest, there were signs that this was coming.
Their attack was good without being great, they rode key moments from their star players behind a solid defence and, don’t forget, if St George Illawarra had won their Round 26 game, Paul Green and his troops were on holidays.
For a team with designs on a top four and tilt at a premiership, the Cowboys’ 2-6 return from the first eight games is nothing short of catastrophic.
Thurston and Michael Morgan can’t find a consistent rhythm in the halves and when they do, the outside backs are letting them down with poor execution and comedic handling.
Opponents are putting more and more defensive work into Jason Taumalolo, who himself was coming off a record workload in 2017. Taumalolo’s output is subsequently down – but it’s still at a level most NRL forwards dream of.
So I’m confident enough that after eight rounds this prediction is very much a bust… But I’m hardly alone here. We’ll discuss the teams with a legitimate claim to the throne in the coming weeks.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Nick Cotric will play State of Origin
Double down
The New South Wales and Queensland squads will drop soon, setting off the usual arguments about who is up to ‘Origin standard’.
The Blues will be looked at particularly closely, with a new coach in Brad Fittler and an expectation he’s going to put the broom through an ageing and badly scarred unit.
They need some major surgery to develop a more effective attacking edge and luckily for them, there’s no shortage of volunteers untainted by over a decade of mediocrity.
One of those is 19-year-old Canberra Raiders winger Nick Cotric, last year’s NRL rookie of the year.
For someone so young, Cotric is a huge presence on the field – standing six foot one and weighing 98 kilos, he runs the ball hard and straight (breaking 6.5 tackles each game) and he aims up in defence. He’s also solid under the high ball, something NSW will need to be if history is any guide.
Fittler has the chance to start from scratch with the best younger players like Cotric, Penrith’s Nathan Cleary (fitness permitting), Souths’ Angus Crichton, and the Roosters’ Latrell Mitchell to name but four.
There’s also a lot of late buzz around Melbourne winger Josh Addo-Carr, with good reason. The man has speed to burn and he’s well versed on a big stage.
The question is though, will ‘Freddy’ have the confidence and support to stick with new selections, especially if it all goes pear-shaped in Game 1? NSW’s Origin future is depending on it.
Fittler is on the record saying he wants to get the best young players into the Origin cauldron ASAP. Expect to see Cotric out on the wing when Game 1 kicks off in Melbourne.
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Penrith to miss the finals
Wait
In preseason, Penrith were in a hole. After a disappointing 2017, this young, dynamic team carrying very high expectations (fairly or not) was eating itself.
Marquee five-eighth Matt Moylan was so disenchanted with his situation and reportedly so deeply in dispute with coach Anthony Griffin that he walked out, to Cronulla. Hot on Moylan’s heels were Bryce Cartwright and Leilani Latu, with Tyrone Peachey also headed elsewhere.
Rumour was abundant that Griffin and general manager of football Phil Gould were in conflict at almost every turn, and that Griffin had lost the confidence of the playing group.
I said they’d miss the eight, mainly due to the off-field dramas and opposition teams putting more work into the young stars like Cleary.
So what’s happened? Naturally, the Panthers are 6-2, have a points differential of +64 and are second in the standings. Like good teams do, they’ve ground-out close wins and put the foot down when opportunity presented, behind stout defence and irrepressible attack. From the outside, you’d say they’re setting themselves up for a run deep into September.
The wildcard of the NRL is in play here though – injuries. Penrith have so far absorbed a huge number of injuries but the hits keep coming. Just this week, fullback Dylan Edwards was ruled out for the rest of the season with a dislocated shoulder.
To add to that, how’s this for a hospital ward full of backline talent: Cleary has been missing with a knee injury, Waqa Blake an ankle and star winger Josh Mansour is out for an extended period after taking a knee to the face in Round 6.
So it might not entirely be their own fault, but this prediction might stand up.
Before we move on, a quick note about Anthony Griffin. Hook has a 56 per cent winning average from 162 NRL games coached. That’s a better clip than Ivan Cleary (46%), Paul McGregor (51% ) and Shane Flanagan (54%).
Griffin cops some serious heat around the outer. But looking at how he’s brought the squad together after that horror preseason and looking at the growth in his young players, maybe – I’m just speculating here – but maybe the guy can coach?
Anthony Griffin (AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Parramatta to make a preliminary final
Wait
In 2017, Parramatta were organised, committed and fun to watch. They were one play away from knocking off the Storm in Melbourne in the first week of the finals (Eels fans who want to get blamey can point to a missed offside penalty at a key moment, too).
After a season where the Eels banked 16 wins but were bounced from the finals in straight sets, I had them pegged for more of the same this year.
But that was then and this is now. Parramatta sit dead last with just two wins. They’ve been completely abject at times and the pressure on coach Brad Arthur must be crushing.
But two straight wins, the return of Clint Gutherson and some better defending has seen some green shoots of growth.
In a weird year like we’ve got in 2018, why not have a team who started 0-6 defy history and all common sense to make the finals.
So, as mad as it sounds, I’m not completely off Parramatta yet. Their next three match-ups are Cronulla (away), Canterbury (away) and New Zealand (home).
If they can grab two wins from that run of games, they’re well and truly back in it.