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Cynically you could say that the rugby gods have been kind in handing 60 per cent of the Australian conference a bye in Round 12, but there’s been a bit of an unfortunate trend to this in 2018.
This weekend the Reds, Brumbies and Sunwolves will all sit it out. It will be the third time this season that more than one Australian conference side has had the bye on the same weekend.
Notwithstanding the opening round, which started in South Africa and nowhere else, there have only been five rounds in the previous ten where more than one team had a bye. But New Zealand and South Africa have never had fewer than four teams from their conference in action.
You could go down the cynical route. But realistically, when the game in Australia is struggling for traction, this kind of draw inequity is madness. By 4:45pm Australian eastern time on Saturday the Australian conference participation in Round 12 will be over. There will still be half of Round 12 to follow. It makes no sense.
At least there’s nothing like this crazy inconsistency when it comes to tipping…
Last week
5 for Geoff; 4 for Digger, Brett and The Crowd; 3 for Harry and Nobes.
Overall
Nobes 49; Geoff 47; Digger and The Crowd 45; Harry and Brett 43.
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Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Bulls, Sharks.
While the upset results keep coming, and there’s potential for a couple more this round, I don’t think is the week to be chasing them.
The Jaguares are already well satisfied with an unprecedented three wins on the road. In their minds they don’t need to beat the Chiefs and so they won’t. With the Rebels still a little bruised and battered from their South African tour, they will be given no chance against the uber-efficient Crusaders. I actually do give them a realistic hope this week, but not enough to stick my neck out all the way and tip them. Thus it will become win 37 for New Zealand franchises over Australia.
Which leaves the Blues to make it win 38, or else the Waratahs to reset the shot clock at zero. Believe it or not, the hole that Australian rugby has dug itself into will be backfilled at some point, and this Saturday arvo is as good a place as any to start. Tahs to win.
If the Lions didn’t cope with the Reds’ defensive pressure they’ll like the speed of the Hurricanes’ defensive line even less. ‘Canes at home. And I fancy a Sharks win at home, although the Highlanders are tenacious and travel well, and a win wouldn’t surprise. The Stormers are a much better side at home, but the Bulls are better coached and I think are going slightly the better.
Sure thing
Lab analysis from an incident ten days ago at a Woollahra Hotel where Nick Phipps, celebrating his bucks night, is said to have urinated on the bar, will reveal that some of it was fast and straight at the target but also that some of it was sprayed high and to the left and some of it dribbled slowly along the ground.
(Gallo Images/Getty Images)
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Bulls, Highlanders.
The Chiefs at home are too good to ignore, even though I suspect the Jaguares will put up a big fight, and while the Rebels will also have a go, I cannot see them getting over the reverse pig islanders in the end.
I do not trust the Blues to defend the ‘streak’ in Sydney, so the Waratahs should ‘piss it in’ easily there and become the ‘one’, while the Lions are a dangerous side and after last week I would imagine highly motivated. But hey, ‘Canes by plenty – though my man crush on Marx has me excited to watch this game live.
Big derby day at Newlands, but to me the Bulls are playing the better code so will back the away win. Durban is often an incredibly difficult place to visit, but I can trust the Highlanders to play consistently good footy as opposed to the Sharks. The Clan for me.
Sure thing
I am picking the refs may be less ‘officious’ this week at the breakdown and the selection talk should ramp up decidedly for the respective national sides with June now around the corner.
(Atsushi Tomura/Getty Images)
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers, Sharks.
Grumbles about how ridiculous the draw looks this weekend aside, I have a good feeling about this round, even if it looks worryingly straightforward.
Imagine if the Jaguares did what no Australian teams have done in three years and beat two New Zealand sides in a row! (The Rebels beat the Chiefs and Blues, coincidentally, back in 2015 nearly to the week). Yeah, I can’t see it either.
Crusaders should be too good for the Rebels and their very welcome new jersey sponsor; ‘Canes not by plenty over the Lions, but probably by enough. Stormers don’t lose at Newlands, and this weekend is not the time to prove that theory wrong. And I pre-emptively agree with Nobes; the Highlanders can’t be that lucky again in Durban.
And that leaves the Waratahs. And the Blues. And the joy, when the streak comes to an end.
Sure thing
No-one beats Australian teams 38 times in a row!
(Don’t you dare drop this, ‘Tahs. You. Have. One. Job.)
(Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers, Sharks.
I cannot believe I have to start with the Jags. Shame on me for not believing in my home team to beat the Blues. The Chiefs are a different team when Damien McKenzie is on, but it is not only him that Jaguares will have to be aware of. Too much for the visitors to handle, too many questions to answer and, to tell you the truth, I could not ask much more from them.
Crusaders did not look very good against the Brumbies last week, but I think they still have enough to beat the Rebels that seem to be losing the Cinderella status in Australia. For the Waratahs it is time to get over their distractions over Folau’s religious beliefs or Phipps’ prostate testing methods and start delivering something on the field.
The Hurricanes will take care of the Lions. The ‘Canes are the most consistent team in Super Rugby this year and the Lions are very unreliable despite leading the South African Conference.
The Stormers at home against the Bulls is a very tricky call. The team from Cape Town did not look very shinny against the Rebels, and the Bulls did not deserve to lose against the Highlanders. In such a tight game I should stick to the home team. The Sharks have played better abroad than at home; however, the Highlanders’ luck will run out Durban
Sure thing
Jaguares will insist on earning a penalty try from scrum in New Zealand regardless that the officials over there have lost the pertinent pages of the rulebook.
(Gabriel Rossi/Getty Images)
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers, Sharks.
It’s crisis time. I cannot make any more mistakes. I will play it tight. I will come hard around the corner, the ball behind my forearms, my body low, with a cleaner attached to my hip already, and I will allow no tries.
The nasty, smart Chiefs will pilfer and slither to a comfortable home win against the satiated Jaguares, who might have the most spirited travelling fans in the comp. The Rebels will fold up like a cheap tent to the building, ominous, cohesive Crusaders.
The talented Waratahs will break the Kiwi streak – sorry, Rugby Tragic. The Hurricanes and the Lions will score plenty of points, but in the end, too many minutes on the best players from Johannesburg, and the ‘Canes will stay there or thereabouts at the top of the table. The Sharks will do their bipolar thing and crush the Highlanders, who had to tackle too many big Bulls last week.
I’m avoiding the biggest derby in the rugby world: Northern Transvaal versus Western Province, skop-en-jag versus run-and-gun, lager versus latte, turf versus surf, tradition versus cosmopolitanism, braai versus babes and good versus evil. Pollard versus Willemse is an excellent ticket. I have no idea, but I can never, never, ever, ever tip the Bulls over my Stormers.
Sure thing
I don’t think I can win this.
Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.
Who have you got, Roarers? Who gets your tip? Got a sure thing yourself? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend.