The expectations game is so much fun to play, isn’t it? It’s what gives a fan the chance to celebrate a 2-20 season… If the team was expected to go winless.
Finding reasons to get hyped about your team is the very definition of a fanatic!
Of course, if you’re a coach, it can be a frustrating game to play – ask John Worsfold. Essendon’s 2-5 record isn’t really that bad, but when the expectations have them playing finals footy, it sounds terrible.
| Current record | Projected wins | Difference | Statistically significant? | |
| North Melbourne | 04/03/00 | (1.75 wins) | Diff: + 2.25 | (Significant +) |
| Fremantle | 03/04/00 | (1.44 wins) | Diff: + 1.56 | (Significant +) |
| Gold Coast | 03/04/00 | (1.44 wins) | Diff: + 1.56 | (Significant +) |
| Collingwood | 04/03/00 | (2.63 wins) | Diff: + 1.37 | (Significant +) |
| West Coast | 06/01/00 | (4.69 wins) | Diff: + 1.31 | (Significant +) |
| Western Bulldogs | 03/04/00 | (3.00 wins) | Diff: zero | |
| Hawthorn | 05/02/00 | (5.13 wins) | Diff: – 0.13 | |
| Adelaide | 05/02/00 | (5.19 wins) | Diff: – 0.19 | |
| Richmond | 06/01/00 | (6.25 wins) | Diff: – 0.25 | |
| Port Adelaide | 04/03/00 | (4.38 wins) | Diff: – 0.38 | |
| Melbourne | 04/03/00 | (4.38 wins) | Diff: – 0.38 | |
| St Kilda | 01/05/01 | (2.00 wins) | Diff: – 0.50 | |
| Geelong | 04/03/00 | (4.69 wins) | Diff: – 0.69 | |
| GWS Giants | 04/02/01 | (5.38 wins) | Diff: – 0.88 | (Significant –) |
| Brisbane | 0-7-0 | (0.94 wins) | Diff: – 0.94 | (Significant –) |
| Essendon | 02/05/00 | (3.25 wins) | Diff: – 1.25 | (Significant –) |
| Carlton | 0-7-0 | (1.38 wins) | Diff: – 1.38 | (Significant –) |
| Sydney | 04/03/00 | (5.50 wins) | Diff: – 1.50 | (Significant –) |
One of the huge factors in a team’s positive performance is having the same line-up week after week. The following list compares the record of each team with the number of players used through seven rounds this season, plus the number of players on their injury list as of Monday this week:
Richmond 6-1-0 27 players – three injuries
West Coast 6-1-0 27 players – eight injuries
Adelaide 5-2-0 29 players – 12 injuries
Hawthorn 5-2-0 30 players – four injuries
GWS Giants 4-2-1 30 players – ten injuries
Geelong 4-3-0 32 players – 11 injuries
North Melbourne 4-3-0 26 players – six injuries
Sydney 4-3-0 31 players – ten injuries
Collingwood 4-3-0 29 players – 11 injuries
Melbourne 4-3-0 31 players – nine injuries
Port Adelaide 4-3-0 29 players – six injuries
Fremantle 3-4-0 29 players – 11 injuries
Gold Coast 3-4-0 31 players (27 through R6) – ten injuries
Western Bulldogs 3-4-0 35 players – 11 injuries
Essendon 2-5-0 32 players – six injuries
St Kilda 1-5-1 30 players – five injuries
Brisbane 0-7-0 31 players – four injuries
Carlton 0-7-0 31 players – 12 injuries
It’s notable that the two which seem to be sailing along with the fewest number of player participation problems are the team at the top of the ladder, Richmond, and the team with the highest return over expectations for the year, North Melbourne – arguably the two having the best seasons.
Who else has better-than-average personnel situations? West Coast has only had to use 27 players during their six-game winning streak. Adelaide, Port, Collingwood and Fremantle have all used fewer than 30 bodies, and surprise packets Gold Coast had only used 27 before debuting four more on Saturday.
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On the far end of the scale, it’s hard to look past the youngest team in the competition, over in Footscray, which has already used 35 players through seven rounds. They’ve benefitted from the chance to host Carlton and Gold Coast in the past two weeks, and had a nice couple of games at home in Rounds 3 and 4 against a struggling Essendon squad and the Sydney squad that the Kangaroos just upset.
Another game in which they’ll start as heavy favourites comes along this weekend, hosting Brisbane, making six home games out of eight to start the year, potentially winning against four of those teams with a combined five wins so far. Unfortunately for them, they may not be favoured again after that until August.
Geelong has held on well despite being next on the walking wounded list, and many (including me) think not having an ageing superstar on the field has actually helped them by forcing Chris Scott to play more speedier youngsters, who’ve shined in the crunches.
The two Sydney teams have lengthy injury lists, but crucially it’s who is on their lists that’s kept them to four wins each so far in 2018.
You could beat quite a few teams with their out-lists alone: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Brett Delidio, Toby Greene, Dan Hannebury, Josh Kelly, Rory Lobb, Jordan Foote, Tom Scully, Lachie Tiziani, Sam Reid, Lewis Melican, Adam Kennedy, Will Setterfield… That’s a pretty strong training room team!
As alluded to with the Bulldogs, schedule has a great deal to do with perceived success as well. The Doggies may be four-and-four after this weekend, but nobody’s expecting them to still be at .500 in two months’ time.
Similarly, after this Friday’s absolute toss-up game against the Hawks, the Swans may also be four-and-four, but with their next four games being against Fremantle, Brisbane, Carlton, and St Kilda, nobody expects them to still be only .500 in a month’s time, injuries or not.
For Round 8, I’m staying with the favourites (although tipping under the spread in several cases), with the notable exception of Friday night’s blockbuster, which is a tossup with the bettors and the ELO-Following Football computers, where I also have Hawthorn at home as a dead-draw with Sydney.
I’ll take the Hawks on a hunch, if Buddy’s still out. Beyond that, it’s chalk all the way: Giants, Essendon, Melbourne, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Fremantle, Richmond, and Geelong (the Bulldogs are the only team I’m tipping over the posted spread, however).
If all of that holds, then the ladder will look like what’s below (with a Hawks-Swans tie for these purposes).
Compare it with what chalk would have forecast back in Week 4 (as per my article from April 10):
Round 8 ladder previous forecast
| Current record | Players used – players on injury list | ||
| Richmond | 06/01/00 | 27 players – three injuries | |
| West Coast | 06/01/00 | 27 players – eight injuries | |
| Adelaide | 05/02/00 | 29 players – 12 injuries | |
| Hawthorn | 05/02/00 | 30 players – four injuries | |
| GWS Giants | 04/02/01 | 30 players – ten injuries | |
| Geelong | 04/03/00 | 32 players – 11 injuries | |
| North Melbourne | 04/03/00 | 26 players – six injuries | |
| Sydney | 04/03/00 | 31 players – ten injuries | |
| Collingwood | 04/03/00 | 29 players – 11 injuries | |
| Melbourne | 04/03/00 | 31 players – nine injuries | |
| Port Adelaide | 04/03/00 | 29 players – six injuries | |
| Fremantle | 03/04/00 | 29 players – 11 injuries | |
| Gold Coast | 03/04/00 | 31 players (27 through Round 6) – ten injuries | |
| Western Bulldogs | 03/04/00 | 35 players – 11 injuries | |
| Essendon | 02/05/00 | 32 players – six injuries | |
| St Kilda | 01/05/01 | 30 players – five injuries | |
| Brisbane | 0-7-0 | 31 players – four injuries | |
| Carlton | 0-7-0 | 31 players – 12 injuries | |
Even with three rounds to forecast from, I was three full games off in some cases (ahem, Power!). After seven rounds, though, I’m still 44-19, just over that two-thirds mark for the moment.
Which only proves one thing, as far as I can tell: one-third of all predictions are completely wrong, and we have no way of knowing in advance which third it’s going to be.
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