The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Previewing the weekend of racing: Your best bets for May 12

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Expert
9th May, 2018
3

Group 1 racing in dual states always makes for a great Saturday, and that’s what we have this weekend with the Doomben 10,000 the feature up in Brisbane, and the South Australian Derby highlighting the card in Adelaide.

Let’s see what we can find to ensure our weekend is a profitable one.

Morphettville – Race 5
We can kick things off with the best bet anywhere in the country on Saturday, with Peaceful State looking to have an iron grip on the Adelaide Guineas.

Firstly, he’s from the right stable being part of the Darren Weir arsenal who seems to saddle a winner every time he looks at a horse at the moment. He always loves this time of year with his favoured Warrnambool carnival, and his canny placement of horses on interstate assignments.

Peaceful State is also the best-credentialled horse in the race, by a long way. On ratings alone, he is 13 points clear of his nearest rival, which would equate to a 6.5kg penalty over the rest of the field under handicap conditions. This is a set weights race though, so the playing field is level.

His class was evident when running second in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas at only his third start, and he was a well backed spruik tip in the Group 1 Australian Guineas earlier this campaign when also running second there.

This is a Listed race in Adelaide, a long way from the class of the Melbourne spring or autumn, and Peaceful State showed his superiority last start with an effortless last to first victory here at Morphetville. Any odds looks good odds, and the $1.75 on offer is attractive.

Morphettville – Race 7
The South Australian Derby is admittedly one of the lesser Group 1’s on the Australian racing calendar, but there is still money to be won on the race.

Advertisement

Tangled is the class runner of the field, and carries the number one saddlecloth accordingly. He’s competed at the highest level all throughout his career, and has in fact placed three times at Group 1 level.

He has run into some class horses that has prevented him from winning those races, including Ace High who is a proven star at staying trips, and D’Argento, arguably the most exciting up and coming talent in the Chris Waller stable.

Tangled’s recent form has been super solid without winning, but in races like the Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby, and he was only just beaten by Higher Ground in the Packer Plate last start. More on that horse later.

This looks like a race where Tangled can return to the winners stall with a much deserved victory for the campaign, and appeals as an each-way bet at $6.

Doomben – Race 8
The Doomben 10,000 is the biggest race of the day, and has attracted a quality field of sprinters. Traditionally run over 1350m, this will be the second year where it is run at a 1200m distance.

Redzel is the firm favourite, as he almost always is as the superstar sprinter of the country, as consistent as he is classy. He’ll probably be winning.

In Her Time is the clear second-elect, a star in her own right, coming off a win in the Galaxy and a third place in the TJ Smith Stakes in her two runs this prep.

Advertisement

But the value of the race lies with Impending. This horse has always been a beauty, remembering he was a Golden Rose placegetter and started favourite in a Caulfield Guineas. Last year, he lived up to his potential when he won the Stradbroke, beating none other than In Her Time.

Impending’s spring campaign was a short one, but he ran two excellent races, second to In Her Time in the Sydney Stakes, narrowly beaten, and then third to Redzel in the Darley Classic. Both times he was each-way value as he is here again.

He resumed this prep with a win in the Victory Stakes at this track and distance, and is sure to run well again. He loves Queensland at time of year, and is sure to give this race a shake. Even if Redzel and/or In Her Time prove too good, he is great value the place, so can be backed each-way at $11/$3.

Doomben – Race 9
The Rough Habit Plate is the “get out stakes” at Doomben, and the money will all be riding on one horse come the last race of the day. That horse is Higher Ground.

We mentioned Higher Ground before, when looking at Tangled’s credentials for the SA Derby. Tangled is a proven Group 1 performer for the age group, and Higher Ground beat him fair and square in a driving finish to the line in the Packer Plate last start. Chris Waller has astutely decided to separate the stablemates, so they can pick off race for themselves rather than competing against each other again.

Waller is a master at targeting the Queensland carnival with his younger horses, when he has one that might not be quite mature enough for a tilt in the Sydney autumn. His horses hit this time of year on the up and in form with their confidence high, and Higher Ground fits that bill with two wins in a row.

He’s $3.10 in the early markets, and could be as short as $2.50 on the day.

Advertisement

Caulfield – Race 6
Wassergeist is a lightly race three-year-old from the Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young stable that has always shown a bit of talent.

He broke his maiden back in September, beating horses like Weather With You and Villermont, both subsequent stakes winners that have been competitive with Group 1 horses, and then took part in races like the Coolmore Stud Stakes and Stutt Stakes in the Melbourne spring against the best of his age group.

Wassergeist resumed with a strong win at Pakenham in a Class 1, and looks ready to take the next step to genuine Saturday performer this preparation. He’s struck a handy field at Caulfield on Saturday, but Linda Meech is sure to give him a good steer from a middle barrier, and he looks a safe each-way play at around the $7.50 mark.

All odds accurate as of 9pm (AEST) Wednesday, May 9.

If you want the best place to watch every race in Australia live, CrownBet is your one-stop shop. Now with Sky Racing channels, CrownBet is a better way to watch and wager. Find out more here.

close