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Desperate tipping times call for desperate tipping measures.
Nobes, the great man that he is, took out the 2017 panel by just one point over Harry, a win decided by the Lions-Crusaders decider itself. It was very romantic, and we were all thrilled for him. Or as thrilled as you can be when you lose a tipping comp.
This season, he has been as a cunning as an SARU board member declaring full and unequivocal support for Super Rugby as a concept. He says it’s been hard to tip, and that he fears being caught, but all the while he’s extending his lead. Like a fox.
The short of it is that like the Australian teams better, we all need to just get better and catch him. Although, strength through contraction could be a decent motivator…
Last week: four each for Harry, Nobes, Brett, and The Crowd; Geoff three, and Digger two.
Overall: Nobes 53; Geoff 50; The Crowd 49; Digger, Harry and Brett 47.
Nobes
Tips: Hurricanes, Reds, Crusaders, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls.
Another round and more difficulties ahead, despite the Jaguares taking a rest.
The first three games are easy calls: Canes by plenty over the Blues, Reds will regain winning ways against the winless Sunwolves, and Crusaders will not have much of a problem at home against the Waratahs.
Highlanders must be tired after two physical games in South Africa and eager to show their home fans that what happens to the Sharks was just a bad day at the office. As for the Lions, they would like to take advantage of all this fatigue, but they should also be arriving pretty beat up at their last game of the tour. I will go for the home team.
A truly hard call in the Australian derby of the week. Brumbies rested and desperate to get some much-needed points against the struggling Rebels who are looking for self-redemption after being steamrolled by the Crusaders. Home team again.
Sam Carter of the Brumbies (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
They say that the Stormers hardly ever lose in Newlands and they are hosting the sore Chiefs without Sam Cane. Stormers for my friend Harry.
Finally, in the derby of South Africa’s ‘flimsy but fascinating’ conference, expect the Bulls to beat the bipolar Sharks.
Sure Thing: perfect rounds are hard to get and this one will not be the exception.
Brett
Tips: Hurricanes, Reds, Crusaders, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Sharks.
Stoopid. Bloody. Waratahs. You had one job. One job. One simple, solitary…
Yes, I’m still annoyed. It’s bad enough to shell a great chance of breaking the you-know-what, but to kill my Sure Thing as well? Unforgivable. I won’t be picking them this week on principle, and next week isn’t guaranteed, either.
The Hurricanes won’t commit silly offside penalties in kicking range, and I’ve not ever seen Beauden Barrett over-club a kick for the corner. And the Blues won’t get away with playing that little rugby again.
The Reds in Tokyo, The Highlanders under their roof, and the Stormers at Newlands. All make sense.
Brumbies in a rut versus Rebels without Will Genia. This might be one of those times when the draw is the most logical conclusion, but given this is an Australian derby, there will have to be a brain-fade in here somewhere. My guess – and hope, given my vantage point for this game – is that it’ll come from the visitors minus their game-manager.
And to finish, the Bulls really shouldn’t have beaten the Sharks in Durban a month ago, but did comfortably. Therefore, the Sharks to repay the favour at Loftus. And maybe even by a similar margin.
Sure Thing: the Waratahs, obviously, and purely out of spite, to break the you-know-what…
The Waratahs (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Harry
Tips: Hurricanes, Reds, Crusaders, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Sharks.
The beauty of the conference system is being revealed as the Jaguares rise. The South African group is split between two teams with five losses and three teams who’ve lost six times. Only bonus points explain the variance. No team is mathematically eliminated yet, although the high bonus point Lions ‘control their own destiny’.
Four of the five Kiwi teams are still well in it, and that’s actually also still true for the Aussie conference, especially if the strength of schedules is factored into current standings.
The first three matches are easy enough: Canes by a modicum of points, Reds in Tokyo by ten, and Crusaders by plenty.
The last four games are a crapshoot.
But I figure the Clan will play with Jacobite anger, and overturn the loose Lions. The dour Brumbies should win, three mauls to two. The speedy Stormers will batter the battle-worn Chiefs, and by plenty. The Bulls and the Sharks… I… just… don’t know. I suppose, I’ll go with the Sharks. But I don’t know.
Sure Thing: Kwagga Smith, Elton Jantjies, and Lionel Mapoe have all missed 28 or more tackles. It’s too easy to find all three of them in the line. Look for a lot of try-smithing.
Geoff
Tips: Hurricanes, Sunwolves, Crusaders, Highlanders, Rebels, Stormers, Bulls
The Blues are Brookvale Oval specialists. Back at home they will get spanked by the Canes. The Sunwolves aren’t going so badly that they will lose every match, which means their first win has to come sometime soon. Here in Memphis, the word from Elvis’ grave is that it’s this week. Sorry, Reds fans.
The Crusaders look too strong at home against the Tahs, while the Highlanders should stiffen up their defence at home against the Lions. The Rebels have suffered a couple of heavy losses, but I haven’t seen enough from the Brumbies to suggest they are any better. Rebels to win.
To finish off, home teams seem to hold sway in the frightfully close South African conference, which means it’s the week of the Stormers and Bulls.
Sure Thing: Wales Online will issue a new article apologising for last weeks’ erroneous report that South Africa was about to desert Super Rugby and pitch its tent in the Pro 14 instead. Turns out they meant to say ‘World Series Rugby’.
Digger
Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images
Tips: Hurricanes, Reds, Crusaders, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls
My tipping form has taken a considerable dive like a Raymond Rhule tackle and my confidence is at a low like watching a Beauden Barrett penalty shot from 45 out on the angle. My tipping advice is to look at someone else. Except Harry, avoid him, too.
Anyhow, Canes by plenty, Crusaders by enough and Reds by a whisker.
The Highlanders tend to bounce back well after defeats and back at home against a non-Marxist Lions seems the likely bet.
Brumbies? Rebels? Let’s gamble on the Ponies.
You would imagine the Chiefs would be disappointed after dropping a home game, but the Stormers at Newlands are a difficult challenge. Let’s try the Saffie team this week. As for the derby, seems a reasonable bet to go with the home sides in South Africa so the Bulls.
Sure Thing: The Waratahs would be advised to not rely on Israel Folau’s aerial skills this week in Christchurch given it is currently duck-shooting season in New Zealand, while Andy Marinos is currently drafting a counter, counter-statement to deny knowledge of the Blues joining World Series Rugby.
Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon (AEST).
Who gets your tip, Roarers? Got a sure thing yourself? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend.