The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

Notes from a humbug: AFL Round 8

(Mark Dadswell/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
14th May, 2018
43
1312 Reads

“The game’s too congested!”
“Scoring is down! Shooting accuracy is down!”
“The officiating is terrible!”
“The skill levels are terrible!”
“Where are all the great players today?”
“The bad teams are really bad, and the good teams aren’t as good as they used to be!”
“The game is boring!”

Poppycock.

Your Honour, I present into evidence against the prosecution’s charges against our fair game, Round 8 of this 2018 season. Nine games which encapsulate all that’s right with the game we love.

In Hawthorn hosting Sydney, we had a game with assets galore coming in that did not disappoint. Rivalries. Former GF opponents. Lance Franklin’s two clubs. Two teams which seemed to die at the same time last season, only to resurrect together and now be even again (when we placed our tip, the odds favoured a draw; our ELO-Following Football ratings differed by just one-tenth of a point once the MCG was taken into account).

And Hawthorn held the reins into the last five to ten minutes of the game, when suddenly the Swans came up with the last three goals and the win, thanks to a third-gamer scoring seven goals! Unpredictable!

With both teams now 5-3, the pressure on the teams ahead of them will continue to be immense. (Despite the long flag-less histories of these franchises in the mid-20th century, modern footy recognises these as two of the foremost clubs in the league. The AFL is simply better when these clubs are competitive.)

In West Coast’s defeat of the Giants, we saw the way that the fortunes of solid clubs can vary depending on injuries and leadership. Most folks, myself included, saw even a depleted GWS as favourites over a 6-1 Eagles club flying cross-country and missing the immensely talented Nic Naitanui.

Then we watched the Giants lose three more players during the match, and it was too much for the fragile psyches and youthful bodies in orange and charcoal, while the experienced talent from Perth showed what momentum and confidence can do for a team.

Advertisement
Nic Naitanui

Nic Naitanui (Photo by Brett Hemmings/AFL Media/Getty Images)

In Carlton’s upset of Essendon, we saw the results of resilient effort defeating the lack of effort exhibited by a demoralised team falling far below expectations. Every season, there are surprise risers (more on them later), but by definition there must therefore also be surprise fallers. And while the Eagles and Kangaroos fans are savouring footy heaven so far this season, Essendon and the Saints are experiencing football hell, with just three wins between the two supposed contenders in sixteen chances this season.

On the smaller, game-sized scale, of course, it’s still a zero-sum game, and Essendon’s woes gave Carlton reward for effort Saturday, with a thirteen-point victory. Was it perfect, balletic football? No. Was it tense and close and tight and entertaining? Absolutely!

In Melbourne’s rout of the road-weary Suns, we saw the results of two months of travel on the victims of the Commonwealth Games. If you ever questioned what the difficulties of playing on the road, review the eight weeks of the Gold Coast season: a surprising pair of early victories to start the year; two defeats in WA to teams that we now realise are better than we thought; then valiant efforts against Adelaide and the Bulldogs before finally falling off the table this week.

Stewart Dew’s team has been valiant this season – I had them pegged for dead last the moment I saw their schedule – and may get a rejuvenation after a week off following their China visit this week. (Or they may be so used to travel that they’re unfazed by China while Port struggles. I’m not betting that way, though.)

In Port Adelaide’s Showdown victory over their co-tenant Crows, we saw every amazing aspect of what a hometown Showdown can offer. As an American, I can tell you that even in our two-team major sports cities (Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, the San Francisco bay area), there’s NO real sense of rivalry between the two hometown teams.

Watching the excitement in that stadium when McGovern kicked a goal with 45 seconds and then Motlop topped it 20 seconds later, the only thing I could relate it to is watching a high school rivalry, or maybe two colleges within a few miles of each other. To see two teams that share a stadium, each with a handful of the greatest players in the world on their rosters, competing in front of a rabid and invested fan-base, is something I could only imagine and enjoy vicariously from afar.

Advertisement

In Fremantle’s 30 point win over Saint Kilda, we saw the reconstruction of a former grand finalist, under the leadership of one of the top coaches in the league (with the juicy history of leaving the opponent in the lurch years back!) and the vanguard of a Brownlow Medalist who has rediscovered his form after two difficult seasons of injury and recovery. Fremantle is 4-4 now; if they can make it to their bye at 6-6, they may surprise everyone besides me at season’s end (not to brag, but I had them seventh in my pre-season post).

Nat Fyfe

Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

In the Bulldog’s hard-fought win over the ever-threatening Brisbane Lions, we saw a young team that disproves the notion that winless teams are necessarily bad teams. Despite eight losses on the trot, the Lions are still posting a percentage near 74, higher than the two teams ahead of them on the ladder.

(Throw out the Richmond debacle, and they’re at 82.5 per cent for the other seven games.) Cam Rayner is only 18 years old. Alex Witherden is just 19. Allison, Hipwood, Berry, Cox, and McCluggage are each 20. Even Charlie Cameron, Lewis Taylor, Tom Cutler and Sam Mayes are only 23 apiece. Only three players on their extended roster are over 28: Zorko, Martin, and Luke ‘I thought you were retired’ Hodge.

If they can stay together in Brisbane (a huge if, but the club’s trying to do the right things to make it happen), it’s not hard to picture the Lions being a grand finalist throughout the 2020s.

In the classic contest between this year’s surprise up-and-comers, the host North Melbourne Kangaroos, and last year’s surprise up-and-comers, the reigning Premier Richmond Tigers, we saw the very best of what the modern game has to offer. Richmond played its game throughout the match – free-flowing goals, tough punch-out defence, great work in the midfield. And North, up for every challenge, put its soldiers in Riewoldt’s way, put Brown and Waite and Wood to the posts for a percentage of 11-goals-six, and Ben Cunnington in the middle taking a league record 32 contested possessions (of his 38 overall).

Yet, with all the talent on display, it was probably the unlikely and uncharacteristic misses from Coleman leader Ben Brown in the last five minutes (who had been an inerrant 26.7 at that moment in the season), that prevented the Kangaroos from going 13.4 instead of 11.6, which would have made for a draw (all other things being equal).

Advertisement

In Geelong’s game against Collingwood,… well, Gazza’s goal towards the end of the first half was pretty cool. I guess eight out of nine isn’t bad; and the other games look better by comparison.

Gary Ablett

Gary Ablett Jr (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Now, Your honour, about the charges against scoring and skills and accuracy…

One of the difficult things for casual observers to understand when they see teams chipping around, or handballing with seemingly little effect, is that they are fighting against stronger, more versatile defences than perhaps their predecessors played against.

The tendency in sport to stretch the duties of the players at its disposal stretch beyond just Aussie Rules. Basketball once had very rigid set positions – as a power forward myself in (very lower division) basketball leagues here in the States in my youth, I would never have imagined being asked to be a major ball-handler above the key. Or to play above the key at all, for that matter.

Magic Johnson may have been the first to change that, and today the ‘Greek Freak’ and LeBron James lead their respective NBA teams from the point, despite the ‘F’ by their position titles.

American football players are increasingly ‘hyphenated’ in their duties, and the Major Leagues are learning to appreciate the Japanese phenom pitcher/hitter Shohei Ohtani, pitching on one day and hitting on others. Strikers and fullbacks roam interchangeably across the soccer-football pitch at times today.

Advertisement

In today’s AFL, it’s nothing to have Jack Riewoldt or Mason Cox back in protection, especially late in a game, or to see defenders moving forward with goal-sneaking opportunities (occasionally “their first in their AFL careers”, because they hadn’t previously been asked to DO that). Midfielders often push into the front 50, and even defenders are tested in the forward line because “great athletes can play anywhere”.

The coaching schemes, too, are more complex and strategic, and not just in footy, either. The reason in every sport is the same: better video coverage of every opponent allows for better game-planning against them. Better resources (thank you internet, among other sources) allows for better coaching of players, even at the AFL level.

Jack Riewoldt Richmond AFL Grand Final Tigers 2017

The Tigers’ Jack Riewoldt (Photo by Matt King/AFL Media/Getty Images)

(Congestion?) Call the tackled ball as the rules are written and you’ll see the improvement immediately. We don’t need zones or fewer players on the field.

(Scoring is down?) defences are better. (Shooting accuracy is down?) Right now, through eight rounds, only the Saints and Bulldogs have kicked fewer goals than behinds, and the Doggos are at 49 per cent. Leaguewide, AFL Tables lists the goal/behind percentage above 56.5 per cent after Round 8.

(The officiating is terrible?) The skill levels are terrible? I’m sorry, but watching this week’s games, I’ll beg to differ. Subjective conversation, I know.

(Where are the great players today?) A few of them, like Lance Franklin or half the Giants’ stars, are languishing in the training rooms, but I can’t read that question with a straight face and watch Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe, Jack Macrae, Tom Mitchell, Ben Brown, Max Gawn, Heath Shaw, Stephen Coniglio, Jeremy Howe, Dayne Zorko, Brodie Grundy, Aaron Sandilands, Joel Selwood, Paddy Dangerfield and too many others to name on the field every week.

Advertisement

(The bad teams are really bad…) Which ones? Brisbane? Carlton? Western? Have you watched them play? I mean, really watched them? The “bad” teams are mostly just YOUNG teams, and they make young mistakes. You know – like North did last year.

And the good teams? Richmond right now is as good as any team I’ve seen play this decade. They have no obvious weaknesses. Watching North Melbourne give them a run for their money on Sunday was tremendous – their only flaw was not having the experience when push came to shove.
And the Kangaroos are just 4-4.

On any given weekend, you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be at least one game that everybody loses their bottom dollar on, because a team will rise up and defeat somebody they “had no right” to beat that weekend. No matter how good a tipster you are, you’re going to miss a full one-third of the games because the league’s that competitive.

Your honour, that’s not a boring sport. That’s a sport with the hallmarks of greatness.

This week: The easy picks – Adelaide over Footscray, Port over Gold Coast, Geelong over Essendon, Sydney over Fremantle, Melbourne over Carlton, and Hawthorn over Brisbane.

The hard ones – Our ELO-Following Football ratings have North as a seven point favourite over the shrinking Giants; we like Collingwood to rebound strongly against the Saints, despite the egg they laid against Geelong; and while betting against a seven-game winning streak at home is unusual, the 2018 Richmond Tigers are an unusual team, and unless something untoward happens to this club, they’ll be favoured at least until they lose (and probably until they lose a couple, more likely).

Every visiting club this week is at least 4-4. In fact, thirteen of our eighteen teams are at least 4-4 right now – we have plenty of good teams! It’s going to be an exciting week!

Advertisement
close