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Melbourne are in the top four - but will they stick around?

Max Gawn. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
21st May, 2018
4

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official – Melbourne are a top-four side in the Australian Football League. Well, for this week at least.

With nine rounds completed Melbourne has six wins and three losses with a healthy percentage of 127.0.

Stitching up third spot came after the Demons handed Carlton a 109-point decimation at the MCG on Sunday. The triple-figure crucifixion was Melbourne’s eighth-biggest victory in club history.

Melbourne sits behind West Coast in first and Richmond in second, with Adelaide, Sydney, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Geelong rounding out the eight.

But will they stick around for the club’s first September action since 2006? Of all the clubs in the eight the Demons seem to be the hardest to read.

The Demons are sitting on a streak of four Ws in a row but the quality of this run has been aggressively questioned for a long time for a good reason.

First came a win against Essendon by 36 points in Round 6, then St Kilda by 39 points and then the Gold Coast by 69 points.

So the third-placed Demons defeated 14th, 16th, 15th and finally 18th. With the exclusion of Brisbane (17th) it’s borderline the literal easiest month of football a club can play against.

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But as the old saying goes “you can only play who they put in front of you” and for Melbourne that’s no different – none of these wins have been by less than six goals and two of them by more than 11. That suggests a clear barrier between Melbourne and at a minimum the 13th spot on the ladder.

Jake Lever

Jake Lever of the Demons (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Rewinding even further, Melbourne began its season with two strange chains of results.

The first was primarily positive – a Round 1 loss to Geelong by just three points, then a 26-point win against Brisbane and a 37-point victory over North Melbourne.

With the win against North Melbourne looking particularly appetising after the Kangaroos rapid and largely unexpected growth this season Melbourne shows signs of belonging at the top end of the ladder.

Up next was consecutive humiliations – a 67-point belting at the hands of Hawthorn and a 46-point loss to Richmond.

After that, the Round 6 Essendon win begins the easy month and we’re up to date.

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So Melbourne started strong, dipped aggressively in Round 4 and 5, and then steadied the ship with some required wins.

Now it’s time to look to the future. Melbourne has two clearly visible waves of quality of opposition it will need to ride.

Melbourne’s chances of playing quality finals football will very much be determined in the next six to seven rounds – the soft wave.

Christian Salem

The Melbourne Demons(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

In 2017 15 wins placed a side (Adelaide) on top of the ladder, 14 wins and a strong percentage got you a top four spot and 12 wins and a modest percentage landed you in the eight or just outside.

Melbourne’s next contest is against Adelaide on Sunday, a fellow current top four side. Let’s be conservative and mark it as a probable loss.

After that Melbourne face the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle and then the Western Bulldogs for a second time. In the next seven rounds Melbourne will play against just two sides currently in the top eight.

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Voting conservatively off the side’s form so far we can tick a win against St Kilda as they’ve already done it once this season. The Western Bulldogs are severely down in form so that is likely to mark a second and third win.

The contest with Fremantle (Round 16) is in the Northern Territory and heading to a neutral venue for a match against a weaker side should be another win.

Contests against Collingwood and Port Adelaide are much closer to 50/50 chances so let’s say the Demons manage to split those.

That will leave Melbourne with 11 wins at Round 16 with five losses. One loss fewer than the club’s final tally in 2017 and with plenty of time to play in the season.

Then we have the tough wave.

Melbourne faces Geelong for a second time and should feel optimistic considering the last result was decided by less than a goal. But regardless, Geelong will be a tough beat. Conservatively let’s call it another close loss.

Then it’s Adelaide once again, another probable loss followed by the Demons’ last soft match of the season – Gold Coast for a second time.

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Considering Melbourne’s 11-goal win against the Suns last time it looks like that will be the team’s 12th win and may book them a spot in September.

Then a rough, rough run to wrap things up – Sydney, West Coast and finally Greater Western Sydney.

While the Giants will probably be exhausted by the end of the home and away season after the team’s horrible run of injuries both West Coast and Sydney will be trying to book in top four finishes and will be ruthless.

Melbourne’s final final six matches will feature five sides expected to play finals football. A tough ask and the Demons cannot afford to be desperate for wins or percentage in that final month of football.

On the other hand if they’re able to reach all of these conservative targets and possibly even push a stronger opposition for a hard-earned win, then the Demons may be looking at not just finals but a second chance too.

So far all this speculation has been purely head-to-head based on past form, now allowing for injury, travel consideration or the strengths and weaknesses of game plans.

Melbourne continues to play a high possession brand of football, averaging more than 380 possessions each game, and has truly shined in the contested possession department in 2018 – sitting in first place with an average of 163.6.

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Melbourne’s strength in tight is also showcased in clearances – second, trailing only Port Adelaide – and a lot of that no doubt comes back to Max Gawn’s dominance in the ruck.

Oh Max Gawn. Melbourne is number for hit outs, leading West Coast, Fremantle and Collingwood.

Max Gawn

Max Gawn of the Demons (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

The Demons have also become an inside-50 producing machine – the number one side with 550 from nine rounds – ahead of Richmond in second, Hawthorn in third and West Coast in fourth. Pretty rarified air with the Eagles and Tigers both tipped as flag favourites.

In another notable areas the Demons are number one for marks inside the forward 50, third for overall contested marks, third for tackles and fourth for intercept possessions.

All of this suggestions plenty of on-field dominance and the ability to consistently dictate the tempo of contests.

The one area the Demons are strong in that does raise concern is handballs. Melbourne is fourth, trailing only Collingwood, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs.

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Watching Melbourne from week-to-week the signs of overuse of the ball are always clear and the Demons are currently 15th for overall kicks, hinting at the long chains of possession required before Melbourne is able to gain any serious yardage.

Against weak sides Melbourne is able to frequently handball its way out of pressure and then apply it right back once they do lose possession via tackling. But against strong sides this level of overuse has been a nightmare and was punished by both Hawthorn and Richmond.

It’s going to be interesting to see how this handball-heavy approach fairs against Adelaide this coming round.

One more final note – injury list. Melbourne has one of the best injury lists of the competition with just six players removed – none of them considered required in the grand scheme of things.

With all things considered Melbourne are once again going to be a fascinating team to watch moving forward.

Have they learned their lesson from early losses, and will they perform better against quality opposition the next time around?

Or has a soft run of opposition in the middle stretch of the season poisoned perceptions of the team and are they doomed to retread the dead end road of another September-less campaign?

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