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Before last week, I was convinced this was a really tough season to tip. Now I’m convinced I just have no luck whatsoever in picking winners of rugby league games. This is The Roar‘s NRL expert tipping panel for Round 12.
Seriously, if anyone has had similar luck to me in the next two weeks, please let me know that I’m not alone.
It’s a lonely old world, tipping five games across two weeks. Normally, if I don’t get to five in a single week I’m a little disappointed, as most NRL fans would be. Now I can’t even do it across a fortnight.
The only positive I’ve been able to find for my pathetic score (believe me, I’m clutching at straws), is that I don’t gamble.
I can’t even use the excuse of last week being unpredictable though, because Tim got seven and everyone else got six! It means AJ (56) continues to hold his five-point lead over The Crowd, while Tim also sits on 51. Tom is back another six on 45, while I’m rounding out the field after my horrific fortnight on 42, which is fun. Or not.
The scariest bit about all of this is that Round 12, with off-field and on-field issues playing a part, isn’t about to get any easier for punters.
In an example of absolute shock and horror which is sure to have you falling off your chair in surprise, the Brisbane Broncos will be on free-to-air TV. They host the struggling Parramatta Eels on Thursday, with the visitors swinging changes ahead of the match, namely, Corey Norman to fullback.
The Raiders will then take on the Sea Eagles in what has been one of the NRL’s more intriguing games over the last few years, with the sides always throwing up close and dramatic encounters, before the Cowboys try one more time to save their season against a Melbourne Storm outfit who were all at sea last week and have had plenty happening off the field during the week with coach Craig Bellamy in a reported move north to Brisbane.
The Cowboys’ season has failed to get off the ground (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Saturday gets underway with the Roosters hosting the Titans on the Central Coast, before the top four teams are involved in the late games. First, it’ll be the South Sydney Rabbitohs travelling to Auckland to play the Warriors, before the Panthers host the Dragons, with the two games set to be belters.
The round will close on Sunday with the Sharks travelling up the F3 to play the Knights, and the Tigers hosting the Bulldogs in what could be an extremely dour affair in the free-to-air contest at 4pm.
Don’t forget to submit your tips on the form below by 5pm (AEST) to be part of The Crowd as you take on the experts.
Tim will lead us into action this week.
Tips: Broncos, Raiders, Storm, Titans, Rabbitohs, Panthers, Sharks, Tigers
UPSET! I’m going to start this week by calling for a huge upset. The Titans to stun the Roosters in a tight one. The Titans pack has the measure of the roosters forwards I reckon.
The Broncos at home will have too much for a weakened Eels pack. Might not be a huge margin, but they’ll win.
Jack Bird of the Broncos (Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
No Tapine and Paulo is equalised by no Walker and Koroisau. It’ll be tight as always between these sides, but my Raiders are due to win one against Manly. On another note, why are the Cowboys playing so bad? Now they are up against a Storm side smarting from last week’s loss and with Cam Smith back. I predict another heartbreaker for the men from Townsville.
In those battles between the top four sides, The Rabbits are pretty damn good. I reckon the Warriors are stalling, so the Bunnies should win, while the Panthers keep finding a way to win and should be able to do it again against the ladder-leading Dragons.
The Sharks are looking good right now. Too good for the Knights.
Meanwhile, Ivan Cleary’s bus has been rolling backwards down the hill. Cleary is desperately trying to get the stalled engine going again and should manage to do so this weekend against Canterbury.
Tips: Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Roosters, Warriors, Dragons, Sharks, Tigers
The Broncos shape up to a shuffled Eels side, with Brad Arthur putting Clint Gutherson in the halves (where I think he belongs). Will this pay off? Probably not. Brisbane will be very much pumped up to deliver for Wayne Bennett’s 800th match as a coach. What an achievement.
Manly snagged two interstate wins against no less than the Broncos and Storm in the last fortnight while the Raiders yet again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Mudgee. It’s exasperating watching the Raiders pull the same bonehead plays over and over and over, but with Manly missing Dylan Walker (karma bus) and Api Koroisau (suspended), the green machine should get the win at home.
Melbourne were abysmal against manly last week and Cameron Smith’s leadership is needed more than ever. They head far north to front a desperate North Queensland. After some poor weeks, the Cowboys are starting to come together. They’ll win, just.
The Gold Coast are an interesting mob this year. But they won’t beat the Roosters, who should be mightily annoyed at themselves for chucking it away against Brisbane last round. If Trent Robinson’s men can’t get this done it’s time for some serious questions down Bondi way.
The Bunnies are over in New Zealand to play for a top two spot. They got a stroke of fortune to take the points in Townsville and they’ll need more than that to topple the Warriors. Home side, but with no confidence.
Penrith have been admirable fighting through injury but the Dragons will be too much for them. This game will be an absolute ripper, with a packed stadium and a passionate Panthers crowd getting stuck right in.
Tariq Sims, James Graham and Nene MacDonald of the Dragons. (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Newcastle are out of legs. Jack Cogger comes into the halfback role and he’s pretty good, but Cronulla are sneaking into top four calculations and won’t miss the chance to bank two more points.
The Bulldogs must be driving their supporters insane right now. They’ve only won one of their last five games, but the losses are by a combined total of 22 points. This week won’t be much better as Ivan rolls out possibly his strongest Tigers squad for 2018.
Tips: Eels, Raiders, Storm, Roosters, Warriors, Dragons, Knights, Tigers
Between the Royal Wedding and the Bellamy Bennett Brisbane blockbuster, the world has been engulfed in a sea of molten hot takes that makes the Hawaiian river of magma look like nothing more than a streak of sweet chilli sauce across a bowl of potato wedges. But amid the madness, life and footy tipping must go on.
Friday night footy will see Ricky’s Raiders host the Sea Eagles on a frosty Canberra evening. Manly are in red hot form, but coming off road trips to Brisbane and Melbourne, I fear the travel will catch up with Barrett’s brawlers. Speaking of Melbourne, they are morals to bounce back and eviscerate the collapsing Cowboys. The Storm don’t lose games coming off the back of a humiliating performance like they produced against Manly.
Cameron Smith of the Storm (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
The Roosters will continue their rich vein of form by trouncing the Titans, the Warriors will halt South Sydney’s momentum with a hard fought home victory, and the Dragons will make the most of their final New South Wales audition by making short work of the wounded Panthers.
Newcastle may have lost more halves than my Year 8 maths homework, but I have a good feeling about them this week. The Sharks have scraped and scrapped their way to five straight gritty wins, but the attacking flair of Ponga may be too much for them to contain. In the other Sunday encounter, the Tigers and Bulldogs will fight out a match that will be high on enthusiasm and low on quality. Tigers by a dozen.
And in Tom’s “Rock Solid” tip of the week, I am going for Parramatta to shock even themselves by actually winning a game. The Broncos will be reeling after the news that Wayne may be on his way out, and the players will respond with an ill-disciplined and distracted performance. And no one will be more relieved than Brad Arthur.
Tips: Broncos, Raiders, Storm, Roosters, Warriors, Dragons, Sharks, Tigers
This is a punish. Five out of the last 16 games, so surely, even on the law of averages, I’m due to turn things around this week… Right?
I’ll tell you what though, I’m looking forward to this weekend. So many stories to follow across eight pretty interesting sort of games.
The key ones this week – or the ones that stand out for me at least – are those between the top four sides. The Warriors and Rabbitohs shapes as a cracker, but with the Warriors back at home, and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returning, they should pick up another win.
Penrith have been finding plenty of ways to win this year as well, and could do so again. Nathan Cleary being back gives the side a shot to the arm, but the Dragons haven’t played well yet this season and are on top of the ladder. They may well find their mojo in the last chance to push for State of Origin jerseys.
Also… Let’s be real. I’m never tipping against a nine-and-two Dragons.
The first one in Brisvegas would ordinarily be a one-sided bludgeon given the rubbish Parramatta have served up this year, but then, Brad Arthur has named Corey Norman at fullback and Clint Gutherson in the halves, so who knows if that’ll fix up the blue and gold or not. Regardless, Brisbane should win.
Then we look at Friday and this plucky Manly outfit are doing some good things at the moment. Wins against the Roosters and Storm can’t be ignored, but then, the Raiders have been solid and will be fired up after losing to the Dragons in Mudgee last week. The green machine are always hard to beat at home, but it’ll be close.
I’m going the Storm in the other Friday clash. North Queensland’s season is just about done, so Melbourne should bounce back, but I’m less than confident.
The Roosters and Titans clash seems pretty self-explanatory for mine, as does the Sharks and Knights. It’s got to be the Roosters and Sharks for wins, with both teams looking to continue building form and momentum, while the other two are struggling – either with form or injury – and shouldn’t pose much of a threat to two teams who should consider themselves well and truly in the finals hunt.
The final game of the round is a tough one to tip. I’m going to take the Tigers, but that’s more based on the fact I’m still not overly convinced by what I’m seeing out of the blue and white offence.
| Round 12 | Tim | Tom | AJ | Scott | The Crowd |
| BRO v EEL | BRO | EEL | BRO | BRO | ??? |
| RAI v SEA | RAI | RAI | RAI | RAI | ??? |
| COW v STO | STO | STO | COW | STO | ??? |
| ROO v TIT | TIT | ROO | ROO | ROO | ??? |
| WAR v RAB | RAB | WAR | WAR | WAR | ??? |
| PAN v DRA | PAN | DRA | DRA | DRA | ??? |
| KNI v SHA | SHA | KNI | SHA | SHA | ??? |
| TIG v BUL | TIG | TIG | TIG | TIG | ??? |
| Last week | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Total | 51 | 45 | 56 | 42 | 51 |
Crowd tipping will close at 5pm (AEST) on Thursday evening. Be sure to submit your tips on the form below before then to make your opinion count as part of The Crowd.