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2018 French Open: draw analysis and potential matches to watch

Spain's Rafael Nadal celebrates winning his tenth French Open title against Switzerland's Stan Wawrinka in three sets, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, during their men's final match of the French Open tennis tournament at the Roland Garros stadium, in Paris, France, Sunday, June 11, 2017. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Roar Guru
25th May, 2018
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The draws for the 2018 French Open have been released, throwing up some cracking potential matches over the next fortnight.

In the men’s division, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev are the top two seeds, meaning they cannot face each other until the final.

This marks the first time since the 2006 Australian Open, when Andy Roddick was the second seed, that anyone other than Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray will be one of the top two seeds at a Grand Slam tournament.

The third and fourth seeds, Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov, have been assigned to those respective sides of the draw, meaning they too will be separated until the championship match.

2016 champion Novak Djokovic is in the latter’s section of the draw, meaning they could face each other in the fourth round. The Djoker’s seeding of 20th is his lowest at a major since the 2006 US Open.

But first things first, we start from the top.

Nadal, the undisputed king of clay, will kick off his bid for an unprecedented 11th Roland Garros crown against Alexandr Dolgopolov, with local favourite and past quarter-finalist Richard Gasquet looming as the first seed the Spaniard could face in the third round.

Also in this section of the draw is American 14th seed Jack Sock and rising Canadian Denis Shapovalov, whom Nadal defeated in the third round of the Rome Masters earlier this month.

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Should the 31-year-old reach the quarter-finals, as he has done on every occasion since his debut in 2005 with the exceptions of 2009 and 2016, sixth seed Kevin Anderson could loom in what would be their first meeting at a major since last year’s US Open final.

Anderson, for his part, starts against Italy’s Paolo Lorenzi, while the first seed he could face is Spain’s Feliciano Lopez, who will be contesting a record-equalling 65th consecutive major dating back to the 2002 French Open.

Former US Open champion and third seed Marin Cilic is the leading name in the second quarter of the draw; he will start against Australian James Duckworth, who has a protected ranking owing to numerous injuries he has suffered over the past two years.

(Photo: AFP)

Now the highest Brit in the continued absence of Andy Murray, Kyle Edmund, the 16th seed, also starts against an Australian, in the form of wildcard Alex de Minaur.

Recent Australian Open quarter-finalist Tennys Sandgren is also in this section of the draw and is drawn to face Cilic in the second round. Should seedings hold, the potential fourth-round clash between Cilic and Edmund will be a repeat of their Australian Open semi-final clash, won by the Croat.

Cilic’s biggest threat to reaching his first French Open final comes in the form of another former US Open champion in Juan Martin del Potro, whose seeding of fifth is his highest at a major since the 2014 Australian Open.

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del Potro starts against Nicholas Mahut, who will be competing on a record 12th Grand Slam wildcard and eighth at Roland Garros.

The Argentine’s potential fourth round opponents include ninth seed John Isner, and former Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych, who defeated him in the third round at the Australian Open in January (del Potro, however, did defeat him in their most recent French Open meeting in 2012).

We now move down to the bottom half of the draw, and the third quarter, where eighth seed David Goffin will start against Robin Haase, with local favourite Gael Monfils looming as his potential third round opponent.

Australian Nick Kyrgios, who has not played singles for over a month owing to an elbow injury, is also in this section of the draw and he will face either a qualifier or a lucky loser in his first match. US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta could await the 23-year-old in the third round.

This quarter of the draw is also headlined by fourth seed Grigor Dimitrov, and 20th seed Novak Djokovic, who has dropped out of the world’s top 20 for the first time since October 2006.

The pair could meet in the fourth round should they successfully navigate their way through the early rounds, which could see them face a pair of Spaniards, Fernando Verdasco and Roberto Bautista-Agut, respectively in the third round.

2013 finalist David Ferrer is also in this part of the draw and looms as a second-round opponent for Djokovic.

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Down at the bottom of the draw is second seed Alexander Zverev, who opens against Ricardis Berankis. His chances of reaching a first major quarter-final could rest in the hands of 2015 champion Stan Wawrinka, who is seeded 23rd. The pair are drawn to face each other in the fourth round.

Alexander Zverev hits a backhand

(Image: Steven Pisano/ CC BY 2.0)

Wawrinka starts against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, the same man who defeated him in the first round of the 2014 tournament, this coming four months after the Lausanne native had won his first major title at the Australian Open earlier that year.

Whoever emerges from this part of the draw is projected to face seventh seed and two-time semi-finalist Dominic Thiem, who could face as many as three qualifiers in a row before running into 12th seed Sam Querrey in the round of sixteen.

Here is how I have predicted the quarter-finals onwards will unfold:

Quarter-finals
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus [6] Kevin Anderson (RSA)
[3] Marin Cilic (CRO) versus [5] Juan Martin del Potro (ARG)
[8] David Goffin (BEL) versus [20] Novak Djokovic (SRB)
[7] Dominic Thiem (AUT) versus [2] Alexander Zverev (GER)

Semi-finals
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus [3] Marin Cilic (CRO)
[20] Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus [2] Alexander Zverev (GER)

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Predicted championship outcome
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) defeats [2] Alexander Zverev (GER)

We now swing over to the women’s draw, where Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki are the top two seeds for the second consecutive major, following their epic showdown in the final of the Australian Open in January.

Halep, the top seed, will start her bid for a maiden Grand Slam title against American Alison Riske, with local favourite Kristina Mladenovic, her potential third-round opponent.

The recently-turned 25-year-old Frenchwoman endured a long losing streak in the second half of last season, but a return to Roland Garros, where she ended the title defence of Garbine Muguruza in dramatic circumstances last year, could be the spark she needs to return to top form.

Also in this section of the draw is Australia’s Daria Gavrilova and recent Australian Open semi-finalist Elise Mertens, who are projected to meet in the third round for, possibly, the right to face Halep in the round of sixteen.

Whoever emerges from the top section of the draw is likely to face either German 12th seed Angelique Kerber or another local favourite in Caroline Garcia in the quarter-finals.

Kerber, who has lost in the first round of the French Open for the past two years, starts against compatriot Mona Barthel, who has defeated the likes of Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic throughout her career.

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Garcia, the seventh seed, starts against Duan Ying-ying and is projected to face Kerber in the fourth round.

The leading name in the third quarter of the draw is third seed and 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza, who will start her bid for a second Roland Garros crown against fellow former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova.

It is interesting to note that Muguruza did defeat Kuznetsova on her way to the title two years ago; it counts as among five wins (out of six total career meetings) the Spaniard has enjoyed against her Russian opponent.

2010 finalist Samantha Stosur is also in this section of the draw and she is up against Yanina Wickmayer in her first match. Should the Australian reach the third round, Muguruza is likely to await, but not before a possible second round clash against 30th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The fourth section of the draw is packed with some big names, including past champions Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, as well as last year’s semi-finalist Karolina Pliskova and her twin sister Kristyna.

Williams, unseeded at a major for the first time since the 2007 Australian Open (which she went on to win by defeating Sharapova in the final, while ranked 81st in the world), is up against Kristyna in her opening match.

Serena Williams Tennis Wimbledon 2016

( The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images )

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The American could then face 17th-ranked Australian Ashleigh Barty in her second match and then 11th seed Julia Goerges in her third match before a potential fourth round showdown against Sharapova, against whom she will be aiming for her 19th consecutive win dating back to the start of 2005.

Before that, though, Sharapova and Karolina must face qualifiers in their first matches before a possible third round collision. While the pair have not yet met on the WTA Tour, they met during the 2015 Fed Cup final with Sharapova winning in straight sets.

Further down the draw, fifth seed Jelena Ostapenko will start her title defence against Kateryna Kozlova, but could then strike former world number one Victoria Azarenka in the second round.

Like Williams, the Belarussian also has a protected ranking, nearly 18 months after giving birth to her son. A subsequent custody battle has also prevented her from competing much regularly since then.

2002 finalist Venus Williams is a potential fourth round opponent for Ostapenko, as is former Australian Open semi-finalist Johanna Konta, who has dropped out of the top 20 after enduring some poor form this year.

Williams and Konta are projected to face off in the third round, which if they do will be their first meeting at a major since last year’s Wimbledon semi-final, won by the 37-year-old American.

Fourth seed and title favourite Elina Svitolina is likely to await any of these above players in the quarter-finals; the recent Rome champion has drawn Croat-turned-Australian Ajla Tomljanovic in her opening match.

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The 23-year-old, who was the junior champion in 2010, isn’t expected to be troubled until the fourth round, where 13th seed Madison Keys is likely to loom.

The bottom quarter of the draw is anchored by reigning Australian Open champion Caroline Wozniacki, who will start against Danielle Collins but could then strike 2012 finalist Sara Errani in the third round.

Errani, who is unseeded after a recent drug ban, is up against local favourite Alize Cornet in her first match. Whoever reaches the quarter-finals from this section could face either eighth seed Petra Kvitova or reigning US Open champion Sloane Stephens there.

Neither Kvitova, who has made an impressive comeback from a hand injury she violently suffered before Christmas in 2016, or Stephens should encounter any tricky opponents en route to a likely fourth round meeting.

Predicted quarter-final, semi-final and championship outcomes:

Quarter-finals
[1] Simona Halep (ROU) versus [12] Angelique Kerber (GER)
[3] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) versus [6] Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
[5] Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) versus [4] Elina Svitolina (UKR)
[8] Petra Kvitova (CZE) versus [2] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)

Semi-finals
[1] Simona Halep (ROU) versus [6] Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
[4] Elina Svitolina (UKR) versus [8] Petra Kvitova (CZE)

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Predicted championship outcome
[4] Elina Svitolina (UKR) defeats [1] Simona Halep (ROU)

Play gets underway in the evening at 7:00pm (AEST).

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