What will Ireland bring to Australia in June?

Who would be a professional rugby player? The finals of the Pro 14 and the English Premiership were played out this past weekend, but no sooner has that peak come and gone than the air clears, and another international mountain-top hoves into view.

June is the odd man out in the rugby calendar. Super Rugby comes to an abrupt halt with three rounds of the regular season still remaining, and tours by the Six Nations countries follow hard on the heels – some would say, too hard – of domestic competition.

For their first Test against New Zealand, on June 9, France will be without the players from Montpellier and Castres, who will still be contesting the Bouclier de Brennus for their clubs in Paris on the previous weekend and therefore be unavailable at Eden Park.

Of all the touring teams, Ireland will be riding the crest of the highest wave when they arrive on Australian shores. They achieved the Grand Slam back in March, winning the tournament with one round to spare and sweeping all before them. Four of their five wins were delivered with the ribbon of a bonus point tied neatly on as a bow.

At club level, Dublin-based Leinster have just won the ‘double’ of European Champions Cup and Pro 14 title. Like Ireland, they did not lose a match in the process.

Ireland’s Kiwi head coach Joe Schmidt recently announced a touring squad which was the strongest available to him. Of the elite player core, only injured British and Irish Lion number seven Sean O’Brien is missing.

The challenge for Michael Cheika and his Wallaby charges is as great, if not greater than that posed by Eddie Jones’ England this time last year. Ireland bring an excellent kick-and-chase game, they know how to keep the ball and wear teams down, and they boast the best halfback pairing anywhere in the world – at least in terms of game management.

During the 2018 Six Nations, Ireland both kicked more than their opponents and built an average of 48 more rucks per game, at an astronomical 98 per cent retention rate. They were expertly navigated around the field by Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton, and produced innovative attacks from set-piece in the finest Joe Schmidt tradition.

Their strengths will put the finger on the more senstive aspects of Wallaby selection for Cheika.

Does he pick Michael Hooper and David Pocock together in the back row to disrupt Irish ball control at the breakdown?

Who does he select in the backfield to neutralise the Irish kicking game?

Will the Wallabies persist with Nathan Grey’s ‘musical chairs’ defensive structure (with up to four players out of their natural positions) from lineout?

Let’s examine a few of the issues in greater detail, based on Ireland’s game-deciding first-half performance in the last round against England:

First things first – the kicking game. Ireland started the game by launching a direct attack on England fullback Anthony Watson in the sixth minute (0:36 on the reel).

Many of the Irish players have a strong GAA (Gaelic Football) background and enjoy excellent aerial skills. Ireland will often run their fullback Rob Kearney – who played for the senior Cooley GAA team at the tender age of 16 – at the weakest point of the opposition defence, and in this instance Kearney did enough to disrupt the clean receipt by Watson to create a score:

Can Michael Cheika afford to shift Israel Folau to the wing, can he risk a Jack Maddocks or even a Tom Banks ‘sitting alone on the island’ under that threat?

Matters did not improve for England when veteran Mike Brown came on to replace Watson late in the first half:

Ireland were in the process of running down the clock on a yellow card to Peter O’Mahony, and Murray’s accurate high kick enabled them to reclaim the ball and start another long sequence of phase possession.

From set-piece, Schmidt has built up an impressive repertoire of moves over a number of years. He is an expert at creating an expectation for defenders, then turning that expectation on its head via a ‘bait and switch’. I have no doubt he will be looking to do the same to Australia, especially if they feature their patented ‘musical chairs’ defence from lineout.

This is how Ireland scored their second try against England, at 1:17 on the highlight reel. The overhead shot shows clearly what Ireland are trying to do:

England would have known all about Sexton’s fondness for the wrap-around play in their preparation, in which he gives the ball to the attacker outside and then runs around him looking for the return ball.

At the critical moment, Sexton gives to tight-head prop Tadhg Furlong and runs the expected arc around him:

Sexton’s movement attracts the critical defender on the play, Exeter’s Sam Simmonds (circled in red), and pulls him away from the real striker Bundee Aki, who promptly penetrates the hole that has been opened to create the try for CJ Stander.

Who can be trusted to defend the Irish repertoire of set plays? Do you want Hooper, Pocock, or Bernard Foley playing the role of Simmonds?

It is symptomatic of the tremendous advances made by Ireland’s tight forwards that it is Furlong who is trusted with enough sleight-of-hand to make the money pass on the play. For all his virtues, Mike Ross would never have been able to do that!

It is that improvement in Ireland’s tight five, led by young forwards like Furlong (23 years old), Iain Henderson (26) and James Ryan (only 21), which is making all the difference.

Henderson and Ryan are typical of the new breed of young second-rows, who might have been considered primarily at number six in another era. They perform the core roles very well – here is Ryan first spoiling an England lineout to Maro Itoje:

Then there is Henderson, converting the spoil into a full turnover by holding Itoje up off the ground with an exceptional show of strength:

At the core of Ireland’s gameplan is the ability to retain the ball. When you are planning to keep the ball for 15 or 20-plus phases, you have to be able to win a reasonable proportion of one-versus-one, and two-versus-two cleanouts without undue fuss.

Here is Ryan removing James Haskell, a handy on-baller, one-on-one:

Ryan’s cleanout technique is impeccable. Instead of attempting to drive a defender as strong as Haskell straight out of the tackle zone with pure power, he ‘rolls’ underneath the shoulder with his right arm, while using his left to take away Haskell’s legs, his base of operations:

The platform for Ireland’s third try just before halftime (at 2:38 on the reel) was a dominant cleanout by Henderson:

For a moment, Ireland looked in trouble. There were two England jackals established over the ball (Mako Vunipola and Chris Robshaw), and Rory Best’s initial cleanout did not have the desired impact:

Then Best made a second effort on Vunipola and Henderson arrived to knock over Robshaw decisively, breathing new life into the sequence. Henderson used a similar roll-and-grab technique to Ryan:

Add the Scarlets’ outstanding 26-year-old Tadhg Beirne into this mix and it represents a formidable group of tough, smart and mobile big men in contact.

Will the Wallabies need both Hooper and Pocock, or two number 7s in their back row to disturb Ireland’s long-phase sequences and their expertise at cleanout time?

Summary
The Ireland tour of Australia in June promises to be an even more stringent Test of Michael Cheika’s playing resources and selection than England in 2017.

Ireland have a core of great young forwards coming through their domestic system, and they are expertly steered around the field by the 137 international caps of Murray and Sexton in the halves.

Cheika’s selections will have to be accurate and apt in a number of areas. He will need to pick the best aerial backfield he can to defuse the potent Irish kicking game. Will Folau stay at fullback or shift to the right wing?

Ireland’s set moves will be well-conceived and executed. Will Nathan Grey be tempted to move away from the unsettling position swaps he has preferred in previous years? Will Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale be allowed to defend in their natural 10 and 12 channels? Who will be trusted to run the defence from the spot outside them?

Ireland will keep the ball for long periods and be prepared to move from breakdown to breakdown, plotting their way down patiently the field. Does this mean Australia should select the ‘Pooper’ or dual open-side flankers to cause more disruptions? If not, who will provide the turnover ball?

Intriguing questions all, and we will have some strong hints of the answers as early as today, when Michael Cheika announces his first squad of 2018.