The Carlton Blues return to the SCG on Friday night, taking on one of the AFL favourites, the Sydney Swans.
Marn Grook is an important round for the Swans, with Indigenous stars Adam Goodes, Michael O’Loughlin and Lewis Jetta celebrated over the past decade.
Hawthorn edged the Swans by six points in a thriller at the SCG in the corresponding round last year, with superstar Indigenous players Shaun Burgoyne and Lance Franklin jointly awarded best on ground honours.
A repeat for the Swans would be heartbreaking, given their harrowing Round 6 loss to Carlton last year, amid their worst start to a season since 1994.
Sydney made them pay for their win in Round 23 last year, Franklin booting ten goals to seal his fourth Coleman medal in the Swans’ 81-point romp.
While Carlton would give themselves an outside chance, few else would, given their form and position on the ladder.
The Blues held Geelong to just 73 points at home last week, and recorded more scoring shots, but it’s hard to look at the result as anything other than Geelong cruising in second gear after the five-minute mark of the first quarter.
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Sydney dominate the head-to-head between the teams since 2012, winning eight of their last nine clashes, with Carlton’s win at the MCG last season breaking the streak of eight wins.
There have been several close matches, most notably the final at Stadium Australia in 2011 and Josh Kennedy’s herculean effort in Round 18, 2016 to drag the Swans over the line by six points.
But when the Swans win big, it’s always off the back of a strong second half, with ten or more goals kicked after halftime in their last four 60-points-plus wins.
Liam Jones will be eager to test himself against the premier forward in the league, but his recent form – especially against Tom McDonald – has been condemned by Fox Footy presenter Danny Frawley.
Carlton have struggled with possession of the ball all season, ranked 18th and 15th for average disposals and average contested disposals – the Swans are ranked seventh (381.5) and sixth (150.9) respectively.
Also, expect to see the ball spending a lot of time inside the Swans’ forward half, with Sydney leading Carlton in disposal efficiency (72% to 69%), rebound 50s (plus-five) and inside 50s (plus 4.6), as well as score differential (Swans plus-119, Carlton minus-380).
Carlton have a lot to prove, with gun on-ballers Ed Curnow and Patrick Cripps leading the way, while the Swans recall out-of-favour winger Nic Newman and forward Gary Rohan.
George Hewett versus Patrick Cripps
Patrick Cripps is in fantastic form, backing up from two terrific seasons before, and is the top-ranked Carlton player in the AFL’s player ratings, at 20.
George Hewett, on the other hand, struggled to hit his straps early, but has performed admirable shut-down jobs over the last month on Nat Fyfe, Dayne Zorko and Tom Mitchell.
Ed Curnow versus Harry Cunningham
Ed Curnow is a barometer for the Blues – when he’s ticking, they’re threatening. He’s found joy against the Swans in recent weeks, so it falls to the Swans back-up stopper Harry Cunningham to curb his influence.
Cunningham can get the job done, most recently neutralising Isaac Smith in the Swans’ fantastic nine-point win against the Hawks in Round 8.
Lance Franklin versus the entire Carlton defence
Liam Jones will be having nightmares lining up against Lance Franklin this week – his recent form led to a hilarious condemnation by Frawley after Round 9. He’s a terrific intercept player, but even the best defenders are hapless without help, or when the ball is camped inside the opponents forward arc.
Lance Franklin may well play the decoy role this week, with Sam Rowe, Lachie Plowman and Jacob Weitering capable of doing a job.
Dane Rampe versus Charlie Curnow
Charlie Curnow is an exciting young player and capable of hitting the scoreboard hard and fast. He’s a quick, athletic, can take great marks and kick a bomb.
But this week, he’s up against the best fullback in the league. Rampe is in terrific form and will prove to be a worthy adversary.
Dane Rampe (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
It’s a big week for Gary Rohan
The Swans forward was recalled after being dropped and publicly berated for not working hard enough by head of football Tom Harley. He didn’t play in the NEAFL last week and needs to prove that he’s worth his spot in the side.
Prediction
Sydney Swans by 68 points.
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