State of Origin 1: The definitive stats preview

Expert

5th June, 2018

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Boyd Cordner. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Tim Gore

Expert

5th June, 2018

5223 Reads

It is hard enough doing stats previews for State of Origin games without a fullback being ruled out and the replacement being a mystery. When a winger then reportedly dislocates his finger, things get even harder.

Queensland Coach Kevin Walters has now come out to clear up the mystery. Michael Morgan will go into the number 1 jersey, with Bronco Anthony Milford going into the bench utility role.

»State of Origin teams

More State of Origin 1
» Six talking points from New South Wales’ Game 1 victory
» NSW WIN! Baby Blues too good for Queensland at the MCG
» As it happened: Re-live Origin 1 with our live scores and blog
» WATCH: Josh Addo-Carr scores an unbelievably good try to seal the result
» WATCH: Tom Trbojevic’s superb high-flying try

While Milford has only played one Origin game, he isn’t a virgin. This means that the Maroons will still only have three debutants to the Blues eleven.

If Dane Gagai is ruled out with his finger injury, then the good money is on Kalyn Ponga going onto the wing.

So how do the sides match up?

Let’s look at every damn factor because too many stats is never enough!

Runs and metres: Advantage New South Wales

These stats will be vital to who wins and the Blues are clearly on top here.

NSW	Runs	Metres	QLD	Runs	Metres
James Tedesco	15.5	170	Michael Morgan	7.1	56
Tom Trbojevic	14.1	140	Valentine Holmes	10.9	118
James Roberts	8.6	78	Greg Inglis	11.7	105
Latrell Mitchell	6.8	74	Will Chambers	11.2	94
Josh Addo-Carr	10.6	116	Dane Gagai	13.3	113
James Maloney	5.3	54	Cameron Munster	9.8	86
Nathan Cleary	7.8	59	Ben Hunt	4.1	35
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	10.1	91	Dylan Napa	9.3	80
Damien Cook	7.5	94	Andrew McCullough	4.5	41
David Klemmer	17.8	169	Jarrod Wallace	12.8	108
Tyson Frizell	10.2	96	Gavin Cooper	9.1	67
Boyd Cordner	12.4	108	Felise Kaufusi	7.7	66
Jake Trbojevic	13.4	117	Josh McGuire	13.3	122
Jack de Belin	10.8	93	Anthony Milford	6.8	62
Paul Vaughan	13.4	126	Josh Papalii	13.3	119
Tyrone Peachey	10.8	101	Coen Hess	11.8	92
Angus Crichton	15.3	119	Jai Arrow	15.5	141
Total	190.4	1805.0		172.2	1505
Forwards	111	112.6/1013	Forwards	10.8/97.3	93/836
Backs	79.5	99/792	Backs	9.3/75	83.6/669

An average of 18 extra runs a game and 300 extra metres is match-winning. Jai Arrow is Queensland’s biggest metre eater and he’s on the bench. The Blues have nine players who average over 100 metres a game, the Maroons just seven.

It’s hard to see how David Klemmer was a late call-up given his prodigious work rate. He might not have an offload but he packs a punch and just keeps coming.

I’m surprised that Dylan Napa got a run; averages of 80 metres and under ten runs a game ain’t exactly Origin standard. The Maroons are bargaining that his mongrel will make up for his failings. It’s a big gamble.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Age, weight and minutes in the legs: Advantage Queensland – just

Not much difference here. The weight of both sides is almost identical. Further, NSW have just a pinch more minutes in their legs. The only real difference here is that the NSW backs are on average three years younger than the Queenslanders.

NSW	Age	Minutes	Weight	QLD	Age	Minutes	Weight
James Tedesco	25	80	96	Michael Morgan	26	80	92
Tom Trbojevic	21	80	102	Valentine Holmes	22	80	85
James Roberts	25	79.1	93	Greg Inglis	31	76.6	105
Latrell Mitchell	20	78.6	104	Will Chambers	30	80	100
Josh Addo-Carr	22	79.7	86	Dane Gagai	27	80	91
James Maloney	31	80	83	Cameron Munster	23	80	89
Nathan Cleary	20	72	92	Ben Hunt	28	77.2	87
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	24	53.7	115	Dylan Napa	25	49.8	109
Damien Cook	26	79.3	86	Andrew McCullough	28	75	90
David Klemmer	24	54.8	116	Jarrod Wallace	26	46.7	108
Tyson Frizell	26	74.4	108	Gavin Cooper	32	80	108
Boyd Cordner	26	76.1	102	Felise Kaufusi	26	78.3	112
Jake Trbojevic	24	76.8	107	Josh McGuire	28	63.6	106
Jack de Belin	27	56.8	107	Anthony Milford	23	80	90
Paul Vaughan	27	51.1	110	Josh Papalii	26	66.5	110
Tyrone Peachey	26	71.5	93	Coen Hess	21	75.4	110
Angus Crichton	22	79.8	102	Jai Arrow	22	56	101
Total	416	1223.7	1702		444	1225.1	1693
Forwards	25.1/226	67/603	106/953	Forwards	26/234	65.7/591.3	106/954
Backs	23.75/190	77.6/621	93.6/749	Backs	26.2/210	79/634	92.25/739

Nathan Cleary is the youngest man in this match at the tender age of 20, Tom Trbojevic and Coen Hess will be the next youngest players on the field at 21. James Maloney at 31 and Gavin Cooper at 32 will be the oldest. Jimmy is four years the senior of the next oldest Blue, while Greg Inglis at 31 and Will Chambers at 30 make three Maroons in their 30s.

David Klemmer at 116kg will be the biggest unit on the field. Maloney at 83kg will be the lightest.

Tackles and missed tackles: Call it a draw

Queensland have a bigger tackling capacity but NSW miss fewer tackles.

NSW	Tackles	Missed Tackles	QLD	Tackles	Missed Tackles
James Tedesco	5.8	0.6	Michael Morgan	11.8	2.8
Tom Trbojevic	4.7	1.3	Valentine Holmes	2.6	1.6
James Roberts	12	1.2	Greg Inglis	7.5	1
Latrell Mitchell	8.8	1.4	Will Chambers	12.7	3
Josh Addo-Carr	4	0.7	Dane Gagai	14.9	3
James Maloney	11	5.8	Cameron Munster	16.8	2.3
Nathan Cleary	13.2	0.6	Ben Hunt	15.8	3.8
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	24.8	2.4	Dylan Napa	22.8	2.2
Damien Cook	38.8	2.2	Andrew McCullough	40.4	0.7
David Klemmer	20.6	1.3	Jarrod Wallace	23.2	1
Tyson Frizell	24.5	1.3	Gavin Cooper	26.3	2.2
Boyd Cordner	26.5	1.6	Felise Kaufusi	29	1.3
Jake Trbojevic	37.7	1.5	Josh McGuire	27.3	1.9
Jack de Belin	26.5	1	Anthony Milford	11.3	1.9
Paul Vaughan	22.8	1	Josh Papalii	23.2	1.3
Tyrone Peachey	12.8	2.1	Coen Hess	31.3	1.7
Angus Crichton	32	2.2	Jai Arrow	27.6	1.6
Total	326.5	28.2	Total	337.2	33.3
Forwards	28.2/254.2	14.5	Forwards	27.9/251	13.9
Backs	9/72.3	13.7	Backs	11.6/93.4	19.4

Queensland have five more missed tackles in them than New South Wales and they are in the backs. Freddie Fittler will be hoping Latrell Mitchell and James Roberts will expose those frailties. However, Queensland have a slightly higher tackling capacity, making 11 more tackles overall.

Look at Jimmy Maloney’s 5.8 missed tackles! I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a regular first grader with an average like that. His minders will have their work cut out for them, as will Ben Hunt’s. While not as bad as Maloney, he still misses 3.8 a game.

You can bet the Blues will target the six missed tackles of Dane Gagai and Will Chambers.

On the flipside, two great tacklers need to be pointed out. Andrew McCullough misses less than one tackle a match while averaging 40. That’s stellar. Nathan Cleary only missing 0.6 tackles a game as a 20-year-old in the halves is remarkable.

(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)

Did I mention how much I rate Jake Trbojevic? He’s pretty good. He’ll give old man Gavin Cooper some problems. In fact, I suspect that the ageing Cowboy has a target on him.

Attacking and scoring: Advantage New South Wales – by a lot

The attacking stats make great reading if you’re a Blues fan and grim reading if you are a Maroon-clad Queenslander.

NSW	Tackle breaks	Line breaks	Try Assists	Tries	QLD	Tackle breaks	Line breaks	Try Assists	Tries
James Tedesco	4.8	0.9	0.6	4	Michael Morgan	1.3	0.3	0.8	1
Tom Trbojevic	4.5	0.9	1	2	Valentine Holmes	2.1	0.7	0.1	11
James Roberts	3.4	0.5	0.5	6	Greg Inglis	1.8	0.4	0.3	7
Latrell Mitchell	4	0.7	0.2	6	Will Chambers	1.6	0.3	0.1	2
Josh Addo-Carr	4	1	0.2	12	Dane Gagai	3.1	0.2	0.3	1
James Maloney	1.6	0.2	0.8	2	Cameron Munster	2.7	0.3	0.8	1
Nathan Cleary	2.6	0.4	0.8	1	Ben Hunt	2.8	0.3	0.8	3
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	0.6	0.2	0.1	2	Dylan Napa	0.5	0.1	0	0
Damien Cook	3.4	0.8	0.3	3	Andrew McCullough	0.7	0.2	0.3	2
David Klemmer	1.3	0	0.1	0	Jarrod Wallace	0.8	0.1	0	2
Tyson Frizell	1.3	0.1	0	4	Gavin Cooper	0.4	0.4	0	4
Boyd Cordner	1.1	0.1	0.1	1	Felise Kaufusi	0.4	0.3	0.1	2
Jake Trbojevic	0.9	0.3	0.1	4	Josh McGuire	1.6	0	0	0
Jack de Belin	2.1	0.3	0	3	Anthony Milford	2.8	0.4	0.3	3
Paul Vaughan	1.4	0.1	0	2	Josh Papalii	2.1	0.3	0.2	2
Tyrone Peachey	3.4	0.3	0.3	4	Coen Hess	2.8	0.5	0	4
Angus Crichton	2.3	0.3	0.1	2	Jai Arrow	1.9	0.3	0	2
Total	42.7	7.1	5.2	58	Total	29.4	5.1	4.1	48
Forwards	1.6/14.4	2.2	0.8	21	Forwards	11.2	2.2	0.6	18
Backs	3.5/28.3	4.9	4.4	37	Backs	18.2	2.9	3.5	29

The Blues have 13 more tackle breaks in them than the Maroons. That’s a massive difference.

New South Wales have only one player – Jake Trbojevic (with 0.9) – who averages less than a tackle break a game. Queensland have five – Felise Kaufusi, Gavin Cooper, Jarrod Wallace, Andrew McCullough and Dylan Napa. Advantage NSW.

The Blues have an extra two line breaks in them a match. So much of this advantage comes from their back five who really look to have been selected due to their attacking credentials. Queensland will do well to hold them.

This all combines to see the Blues as a far more deadly attacking side as far as the statistics are concerned.

James Maloney NSW Blues State of Origin NRL Rugby League

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Miscreants and fumblers: Advantage Queensland

Queensland clearly have the edge here.

NSW	Penalties	Errors	QLD	Penalties	Errors
James Tedesco	0.2	1.8	Michael Morgan	0.3	1.3
Tom Trbojevic	0	1.5	Valentine Holmes	0.1	0.9
James Roberts	0.5	0.4	Greg Inglis	0.5	0.6
Latrell Mitchell	1.1	1.2	Will Chambers	0.6	1.4
Josh Addo-Carr	0.3	1.1	Dane Gagai	0.3	1.2
James Maloney	0.7	1.7	Cameron Munster	1.1	0.8
Nathan Cleary	0.6	1.2	Ben Hunt	0.7	0.7
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	0.8	0.3	Dylan Napa	0.9	0.2
Damien Cook	0.8	1	Andrew McCullough	0.7	0.4
David Klemmer	0.5	0.3	Jarrod Wallace	1.1	0.4
Tyson Frizell	0.8	0.5	Gavin Cooper	0.3	0.8
Boyd Cordner	0.3	0.5	Felise Kaufusi	0.2	0.6
Jake Trbojevic	1.4	0.4	Josh McGuire	0.9	0.1
Jack de Belin	0.8	0.5	Anthony Milford	0.5	0.9
Paul Vaughan	0.5	0.3	Josh Papalii	0.6	0.5
Tyrone Peachey	0.9	0.6	Coen Hess	1	0.5
Angus Crichton	0.9	1.4	Jai Arrow	0.5	0.2
Total	11.1	14.7	Total	9.9	11.5
Forwards	6.8	5.2	Forwards	6.2	3.7
Backs	4.3	9.5	Backs	4.1	7.8

This is the Maroons’ advantage. They give away fewer penalties and they make fewer errors. You can bet the Queenslanders will try and target debutant Latrell Mitchell and his propensity for making an error and conceding a penalty.

James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic will also have a lot of play aimed at them and their errors. Note David Klemmer’s very low error and penalty rate for a bloke who runs the ball and tackles as much as he does.

The Will Chambers-Dane Gagai side of the field has more errors than anywhere else in the Maroons line, so a fair bit of traffic will be coming their way.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Experience: Advantage Queensland

When you select 11 debutants it is no surprise that the other team is better in this regard.

NSW	Origin Games	QLD	Origin Games
James Tedesco	4	Michael Morgan	8
Tom Trbojevic	0	Valentine Holmes	2
James Roberts	0	Greg Inglis	30
Latrell Mitchell	0	Will Chambers	7
Josh Addo-Carr	0	Dane Gagai	7
James Maloney	10	Cameron Munster	1
Nathan Cleary	0	Ben Hunt	1
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	0	Dylan Napa	3
Damien Cook	0	Andrew McCullough	0
David Klemmer	9	Jarrod Wallace	2
Tyson Frizell	5	Gavin Cooper	4
Boyd Cordner	9	Felise Kaufusi	0
Jake Trbojevic	3	Josh McGuire	8
Jack de Belin	0	Anthony Milford	1
Paul Vaughan	0	Josh Papalii	9
Tyrone Peachey	0	Coen Hess	2
Angus Crichton	0	Jai Arrow	0
Total	40	Total	80
Forwards	26	Forwards	23
Backs	14	Backs	57

Please note that 25 per cent of the Origin experience belongs to one player: Bowraville’s own Greg Inglis. Thirty of the 120 games of experience are claimed by GI.

But then when you look at NSW you’ll find that 70 per cent of their experience belongs to just three players: Maloney, Boyd Cordner and David Klemmer. They are the only Blues who have played in more than two series. There are six Queenslanders who have played in three series or more.

Leadership: Advantage NSW

How the worm turns. Last season Boyd Cordner was the inexperienced captain up against the leadership might of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston. This year he and Jimmy Maloney will be much happier facing Greg Inglis and Michael Morgan.

The most experienced Queensland forward is now Josh Papalii who has been a bench player for most of his nine Origin games. Still on the bench, he will need to step right into a leadership role if the Maroons are to prevail.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The verdict

New South Wales have too much attacking prowess for Queensland and the stats clearly show it. They make more runs, metres, tackle breaks and line breaks, and they score more tries. They should win.

However, they could choke. There are so many debutants and the side has quite a few penalties and errors in them. If they get spooked, if things start going wrong, then the more experienced Queenslanders could grind them down.

But I don’t think that the Blues will choke. Instead, they’ll outclass the Maroons and expose a few of the Queensland selections as being not up for it.

New South Wales by 20

Some other stats of interest
(Note: 1997 stats not included due to split competition)
• This will be the eighth State of Origin match held in Melbourne. Queensland have won four to New South Wales’ three
• It will be the fourth match at the MCG. The Blues have won two of the previous three.
• It will be the third Game 1 in Melbourne, Queensland have won both to date.
– 1990 Game 2 NSW 12-6 Olympic Park,
– 1994 Game 2 NSW 14-0 MCG,
– 1995 Game 2 Queensland 20-12 MCG,
– 2006 Game 3 Queensland 16-14 Docklands,
– 2009 Game 1 Queensland 28-18 Docklands,
– 2012 Game 1 Queensland 18-10 Docklands,
– 2015 Game 2 NSW 26-18 MCG.
• Of the nine times that New South Wales have won Game 1 away from home, they have won six of those series (1985, 1986, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2014). However, in 1983, 1987 and 2017, they lost the next two games to lose the series.
• The last Game 3 held in Brisbane was in 2015. Queensland beat New South Wales 52-6, the record defeat for the Blues.
• Last season was only the fifth time either side has used the same 17 players for the entire series (Queensland 1987, Queensland 1988, Queensland 1995, NSW 1996, NSW 2017). In every instance, the side has won the series – except 2017.
• The 11 debutants in the NSW side is the most in an Origin team (excepting 1995 when the ARL excluded Super League players) since the NSW Game 3 side in 1994.
• The 14 total debutants is the most in an Origin game since the inaugural match in 1980 (except for 1995 when the ARL excluded Super League players).

Join the conversation

Tim Gore

Expert

Tim has been an NRL statistician for ABC Radio Grandstand since 1999, primarily as part of their Canberra coverage. Tim has loved rugby league since Sterlo was a kid with lots of hair but was cursed with having no personal sporting ability whatsoever. He couldn't take a hit in footy, was a third division soccer player making up numbers, plays off 41 in golf and is possibly the world's worst cricketer ever. He has always been good at arguing the point though and he has a great memory of what happened.