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The greatest sporting event on the Australian calendar has arrived, with State of Origin set to kick-off in Melbourne on Wednesday evening. A new coach, a new captain and 14 debutants across the two teams set the scene for an intriguing series. This is The Roar‘s State of Origin expert tips.
The 2018 series marks a changing of the guard for both Origin teams. Brad Fittler has taken over the Blues, Greg Inglis will captain the Maroons and we are in for a very different sort of match.
More State of Origin 1
» Six talking points from New South Wales’ Game 1 victory
» NSW WIN! Baby Blues too good for Queensland at the MCG
» As it happened: Re-live Origin 1 with our live scores and blog
» WATCH: Josh Addo-Carr scores an unbelievably good try to seal the result
» WATCH: Tom Trbojevic’s superb high-flying try
None of the big four remain for Queensland after Billy Slater pulled out of the game yesterday, while the Blues have handed out debuts left, right and centre. Nathan Cleary, the 20-year-old Panthers half, headlines the group, while Dragons duo Jack de Belin and Paul Vaughan – who most felt should have been there last year – will be in the 17.
The Blues will have a virtually new back five, with James Tedesco the only one to survive the chop. Latrell Mitchell, James Roberts, Tom Trbojevic and Josh Addo-Carr are the fresh faces.
While Inglis is captaining the Maroons, Andrew McCullough gets his chance in Maroon to replace Smith, while the replacement for Slater is still unclear, but could come in the form of boom Knights youngster Kalyn Ponga.
Queensland have won 11 of the last 12 series coming into 2018, but there is a different feel about this year. Let’s hope the referees don’t ruin the spectacle and we get a cracking game of footy on Wednesday night.
Don’t forget to submit your tips on the form below by 5pm (AEST) on Wednesday to be part of The Crowd as you take on the experts.
Tip: New South Wales by 14
With Billy Slater out there are now none of the big four who have taken Queensland to masses of glory over the past 12 seasons at the helm.
Holding the rudder will be Ben Hunt, Cam Munster and Greg Inglis. The first two are inexperienced and the latter is 31 and back after a knee reconstruction. On the other side James Maloney, the perennial bridesmaid, has been waiting for this moment to make this stage his own. He’s in superb form too.
Next to him he’s got Nathan Cleary who, at such a tender age, looks so assured and balanced – physically and mentally. I still reckon the Maroons could do it too, but their pack just isn’t up to the standard of the Blues forwards. They’ve got 200 fewer metres in their legs and 15 fewer runs.
The risk for the Blues is inexperience. While their backline is lightning fast, they’ve got lots of errors in them: 9.5 a match to Queensland’s seven. That is the risk of taking so many debutants into a game and it could be telling. However, the Queensland backs have five more missed tackles a game in them, although 5.6 of them belonging to Ben Hunt.
Damien Cook is the X-Factor. The last time the Maroons faced a hooker this good was when Danny Buderus was wearing blue. The last one they faced one this deadly in attack was Andrew Johns. They will really struggle to deal with a NSW pack led around by a bloke who can break any line and outsprint most backs.
NSW to win pretty well.
First try-scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
Man of the match: Damien Cook
(AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Tip: New South Wales by 14
No Cronk. No Slater. No Thurston. No Smith. No Scott. No Gillett. No Boyd. No chance in hell.
Some of you may have read my subtle sentiments regarding the outcome of this game already, so I won’t punish you by rehashing the same points. Instead, I’ll give you just one reason why New South Wales wins tomorrow night – they have the better team.
It’s that simple. The Blues have a stronger and more dominant forward pack, a more dynamic set of outside backs capable of scoring points in bunches, and a more versatile bench. And best of all, the entire squad is in form and on top of their game.
Conversely, Queensland look out of form and underdone, particularly in the forwards. The absence of Smith and Gillett combined with the injury to Josh McGuire and the poor form of Gavin Cooper has resulted in the Maroons fielding their weakest pack in a generation.
The experience and defensive prowess of the Queensland outside backs was shaping as their saving grace, but the loss of Slater throws that plan out the window. All of a sudden, the 1, 6 and 7 for Queensland are just as green and inexperienced as their New South Wales counterparts.
I’ve listened to the same tired old arguments about the famous Origin spirit of this mighty Maroon team trumping the speed, form and talent of the Blues, but the reality is that Queensland are mighty no longer. New South Wales have the better team this year, and without the mental scars of the past decade, they’ll put the cleaners through an understrength Queensland team. You can put the house on it.
First try-scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
Man of the match: James Maloney
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Tip: NSW by 8
This is the most intriguing Origin match-up in over a decade. The first burst of youth and unadulterated excitement taking on a hardened and grizzled Queensland unit that’s not without youth of its own.
State of Origin should not be about incumbency and Brad Fittler has finally been the coach to shock the Blues setup by casting aside reputations and names.
I love the broom going through New South Wales. I love a character who bursts into the bar, kicks feet off tables and yells “Wake up and get the hell out” to a bunch of slackers who have overstayed their welcome.
I also love the Queensland camp continuing their trend of quiet confidence and going into a shell which causes the press to start guessing about how things are going.
The MCG is going to be packed with over 80,000 people and they’ll be leaning Maroon. It’s the way it is down south thanks to the triumvirate of Smith, Slater and Cronk. But the Blues are 3-1 at the MCG and took the win last time in front of over 91,000.
I’ve allowed New South Wales some early nerves before they get into a groove and take the win. Their team is better set up to score points quickly and if they can weather the first 20 minutes, they’ll be right.
Queensland is defence heavy, built for an Origin grind. I’m not convinced this is the way to go faced with this faster, more agile opponent. They need to make the most of every chance because if someone drops off a tackle or misses an assignment, the ball will be 80 metres away in seconds.
With no Billy Slater, there’s extra pressure on Queensland’s trainer Alfie Langer to call the play from behind the halves when the heat is on. At least Ben Hunt knows how that works.
My tip for man of the match is Reagan Campbell-Gillard, who will rip in like a man possessed. That’s what gets you into Origin folklore and RCG looks keen to write himself a page.
Origin is the only place where front rowers get awarded man of the match, too.
Queensland need to get the ruck under control to get the game on their terms and if they start getting hit with penalties, it could be curtains. If they can manage to settle the game into the traditional Origin grinding test of physical and mental strength, Queensland will win.
But this Wednesday I think the Blues have the speed, the energy and the support from their coach to flip that script.
First try-scorer: Greg Inglis
Man of the match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Tip: New South Wales by 4
If the Blues don’t win Origin now, they are never going to win it. Yet, looking at what’s to come in the series, they can’t afford to go into Game 3 with things squared up at one-all.
New South Wales, who have lost 11 of the last 12 series, now face a Queensland team without Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith and should go in as favourites.
But with a new coach has come a changing of the guard. The Blues have 11 debutants, which, when you consider Queensland only have three – maybe four pending on Slater’s replacement – is a lot. I can see problems, particularly in the first half as they get used to Origin.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the Blues go into halftime behind on the scoreboard.
What we can almost guarantee is that this will be a different sort of Origin. Instead of the games in years gone by where Queensland control the pace through their big four and equally as good pack, the game will be played at speed, which is going to suit the Blues down to the ground. Damien Cook is explosive out of dummy half and the longer the game goes on, the more fatigued Queensland’s forwards get, the better off he will be.
As long as New South Wales don’t get bullied early on in the possession count and hold a somewhat equal footing in the game through the first half, they will come away with the win thanks to some late tries.
The problem of having 11 debutants remains though. In a tight finish, without experience at this level, will they make the right decisions? A lot of that problem is going to fall on the shoulders of James Maloney.
So long as he remains calm and composed, guiding Nathan Cleary through his first Origin, then the Blues come away with the victory.
First try-scorer: Latrell Mitchell
Man of the match: Damien Cook
| SOO Game 1 | Tim | Tom | AJ | Scott | The Crowd |
| NSW v QLD | NSW | NSW | NSW | NSW | NSW |
| Margin | 14 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| First try-scorer | Addo-Carr | Addo-Carr | Inglis | Mitchell | Addo-Carr |
| Man of the match | Cook | Maloney | Campbell-Gillard | Cook | Cook |
Crowd tipping will close at 5pm (AEST) on Wednesday evening. Be sure to submit your tips on the form below before then to make your opinion count as part of The Crowd.
* – Player is injury cover. May not play.
** – Use N/A Collumn in margin tip for state not being tipped.