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The 2018 mid-season report cards

Nat Fyfe (Photo by Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
7th June, 2018
2

Lots of folks (many of them on this site) are cranking out mid-season All Australian teams, and as is my wont, I’ve compiled a meta-team out of all the different best 22 collections I’ve found (up to seven so far).

Defenders: *Alex Rance (Ri), *James Sicily (Ha), Jeremy McGovern (WC), Tom Stewart (Gee), Rory Laird (Ad), and Shannon Hurn (WC).

Midfielders: *Nat Fyfe (Fr), Dustin Martin (Ri), Andrew Gaff (WC), Tom Mitchell (Ha), Clayton Oliver (Me), and Jack Macrae (WB).

Forwards: *Josh Caddy (Ri), Tom Phillips (Cw), Jack Darling (WC), Ben Brown (NM), and Jesse Hogan (Me).

Ruck (tie): Max Gawn (Me) and Brodie Grundy (Cw).

Interchange: (second ruck), Jack Higgins (NM), Elliot Yeo (WC), and Paul Seedsman (Ad).

This line-up has five forwards and six midfielders just because that’s how the voting broke down – there were five goal-trolls who dominated the voting, not six. Four players were named on every team I found (marked by asterisks) – Alex Rance and Josh Caddy from the Tigers, Nat Fyfe of the Dockers, and the Hawks’ James Sicily.

Unsurprisingly, the teams which dominate the roster are the same one dominating the first half of the season – West Coast (five), Richmond (three), and Melbourne (three). The other multiple membership teams are Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Collingwood (two each).

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An interesting comparison for me comes from the Best 22 roster that emerges from the meta-Player of the Year polling which we track on the Following Football site I run. Here are the top six at each position, plus ruck and interchange:

Defenders: Rory Laird (Ad), Alex Rance (Ri), Shannon Hurn (WC), James Sicily (Ha), Elliot Yeo (WC), and Tom Stewart (Ge).

Midfielders: Nat Fyfe (Fr), Dustin Martin (Ri), Jack Macrae (WB), Tom Mitchell (Ha), Patrick Cripps (Ca).

Forwards: Jack Darling (WC), Jesse Hogan (Me), Lance Franklin (Sy), Ben Brown (NM), Tom Phillips (Cw), and Josh Caddy (Ri).

Ruck: Max Gawn (Me).

Interchange: Brodie Grundy (Cw), Trent Cotchin (Ri), Andrew Gaff (WC), and Steele Sidebottom (Cw).

Brodie Grundy kicks the football

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

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Only four names out of the 22 vary from the consensus list (and two of those are on the interchange) – Cripps, Cotchin, Franklin, and Sidebottom. So, our meta-POTY scoring looks like it’s matching up fairly well with the popular media consensus.

Perhaps of more interest, then, are the names which lurk in the shadows on the next 22 on our list (after the 26 men on one or both lists above). Many of these players also were recognised by one or two of the media pundits looking for mid-season plaudits to bestow:

Defenders: Tom McDonald (Me), Lachie Hunter (WB), Harris Andrews (Br), Jeremy Howe (Cw), Kade Simpson (Ca)

Midfielders: Robbie Gray (PA), Stephen Coniglio (GW), Adam Treloar (Cw), Dayne Zorko (Br), Ben Cunnington (NM), Joel Selwood (Ge), Shaun Higgins (NM).

Forwards/Rucks: Jarrad Waite (NM), Callum Sinclair (Sy), Stefan Martin (Br), Michael Walters (Fr), Charlie Cameron (Br), Jordan deGoey (Cw), Jack Gunston (Ha), Aaron Sandilands (Fr), Josh J Kennedy (WC), Nic Naitanui (WC).

If you’re considering the entirety of this collection of names, you might be surprised at the spread of names and teams.

Adelaide: Laird, Seedsman (2).
Brisbane: Martin, Zorko, Andrews, Cameron (4).
Carlton: Cripps, Simpson (2).
Collingwood: Phillips, Grundy, Sidebottom, Howe, Treloar, de Goey (6).
Essendon: (0).
Fremantle: Fyfe, Walters, Sandilands (3).
Geelong: Stewart, J. Selwood (2).
Gold Coast: (0).
Greater Western Sydney: Coniglio (1).
Hawthorn: Sicily, Mitchell, Gunston (3).
Melbourne: Gawn, Hogan, Oliver, T. McDonald (4).
North Melbourne: Brown, Higgins, Cunnington, Waite (4).
Port Adelaide: R. Gray (1).
Richmond: Rance, Caddy, Martin, Cotchin (4).
St Kilda: (0).
Sydney: Franklin, Sinclair (2).
West Coast: Hurn, Darling, McGovern, Macrae, Gaff, Yeo, Kennedy, Naitanui (8).
Western Bulldogs: Macrae, Hunter (2).

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Jeremy McGovern

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Over the players rated among the top 48 in the league over the first half of the season, fully one-sixth of them play for West Coast. That would have shocked us in March; after ten straight wins, perhaps not so much. But it’s more curious that seventh-placed Collingwood has the next-highest total of players involved at six.

More curious, notice who’s tied for third with four players? Second place Richmond, third place Melbourne, high-flying North Melbourne…. and 17th-place Brisbane? Wow.

And the three teams without representatives are Essendon, Gold Coast, and St Kilda. Okay, the Dons are a bit of a surprise, but not completely out of place. Only Devon Smith received votes in any of the top 22s I’ve noticed.

But the two with only one member, to my shock, are the (possible) contenders Port Adelaide and GWS, two teams chock-filled with star players which have apparently not starred so far. There must be six to eight men on each squad who could be in the top 22 in the country this season, but either through injuries, adjustment issues, or simply not playing well enough to get noticed, they’re not.

Let’s change the subject.

Robbie Gray Port Adelaide Power AFL 2015

(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

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Look at the ELO-Following Football ratings for each team over the course of the first half of the season. Most of the changes won’t surprise the fan following the 2018 season.

Melbourne: Began at 50.7 (equal eighth), hit a low of 46.3 after Round 5, and has risen six straight weeks until reaching 80.4 after Round 11 for first place. All of the rating-based rankings I can find have the Demons in first or a close second place.

Richmond: Started in first at 77.8, fell for three weeks to 69.4, rose to a season high of 84.3 after Round 7, and mostly fell to the second-place rating of 79.7.

West Coast: Started the season in 11th place below average at 49.0. Reached a momentary peak in Round 4 at 61.4, fell for two weeks but went on the rise to a season high of 72.9 after Round 9. Currently third with 67.2, far behind both the Demons and Tigers.

Geelong: Began fifth (61.0), fell slightly for three weeks to 59.4 as they figured out how things worked, and then rose for five straight weeks to 72.1 after Round 8. Currently fourth at 67.1, right behind the Eagles.

Sydney: Started in second place, 75.1, and went up to 76.6 after their opening win. They haven’t hit that rating since: over the last ten rounds, they’ve lost points in six of them and currently sit at a season low of 65.7. When their entire range is only eleven points, they haven’t varied much from the normal, above-average team they always are.

North Melbourne: Started with 37.5, in 14th place. Dropped to 33.8 after their loss to Gold Coast in Cairns. In eight of their next ten games, the ‘Roos have gained points, passing “average” (50) for good in Round 7 and currently in sixth place at 63.4.

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Collingwood: Began at the top of the middle pack, with 51.1 in seventh place. Dropped points in rounds one and two to its season low of 46.5, and rose to its season high in Round 5 of 61.8; the Pies then dropped points in the next three rounds, and have gained those points back in rounds nine through eleven to reach (coincidentally) 61.8 again, in seventh place.

Port Adelaide: Started the season in fourth place (62.8), and after two great games to start, reached 68.0… and immediately fell over three games to its season low of 54.1. They’ve bounced around uneventfully since then, currently in eighth at 56.5, a good distance from the teams they trailed.

Hawthorn: Another team with improvement to be made in early 2018. Starting in a tie for eighth at 50.1, the very essence of mediocrity, they went 3-1 and reached 64.3 after Round 4. Since then, though, they haven’t reached even that peak, and currently have fallen back to ninth with a rating of 51.0, approximately where they started.

Tom Mitchell

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Adelaide: One of the three favourites to start the season, the Crows were third at 73.7. Three rounds of non-injury games moved them up to 76.7 and first place. Then the ER-free fall began, and they currently sit at a mediocre 50.1, tenth place.

GWS Giants: Before the injuries, they made a move from their sixth-place start at 60.9 to reach second place at 70.7 behind only Richmond in Round 4. Since then, though, they’ve free-fallen every week through Round 10 (hitting 42.5), before moving back to 46.7 after their victory in Adelaide last week.

Essendon: Started at 46.4, 12th place. Won in Round 1 to reach 50, hit a low of 35.2 in Round 8, and currently sit in 12th at 42.4, below where they started.

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St Kilda: Have gained points on their rating only twice, falling from 49.8 (10th) to start the season and currently sits at 37.7, thirteenth place, with a low of 30.9 in Round 9.

Brisbane: For a team which reached negative rating points last season, the Lions have improved tremendously since then. Starting the season at 29.6, they hit a low of 24.5 in Round 5 and a high of 40.5 after their win in Round 10. Currently in 14th place at 37.3.

Fremantle: Boring. Started in 17th place (25.7), dropped a fraction to a season low of 25.0 after a loss in game one, hit a ‘high’ of 37.2 after Round 6, but currently sit at 15th place with 29.6.

Western Bulldogs: Their highest point was their starting point of 45.3, which gave the impression they’d be like last year – in the middle of the pack. Instead, they’re 16th at 28.4, their lowest rating of the year, having fallen quickly and stayed that way.

Carlton: Began at 35.3, 15th place. Moved up to 37.7 from their first game, then dropped to a temporary low of 21 in Round 4, bounced and landed on a low of 15.3 after Round 9. Up to 22.6 after a pair of decent games, but still in 17th.

Gold Coast: Started in last at 17.6 (I saw this, added in the three-month road trip, and no Ablett, and thus predicted dead last for the Suns). They managed to win their first two, reaching 28.4 for a high, and then gradually fell to their current 12.4, by far last in the competition.

So, who’s improving? Melbourne, North, and Collingwood especially. St Kilda, Carlton, and Hawthorn have improved the last two weeks as well. In the other direction, Adelaide lowered its rating four weeks in a row, GWS went six straight before beating the Crows, and Fremantle and Gold Coast are on three-week point-drop streaks. Richmond and Geelong ended their two-game point-drop streaks last week.

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Looking at the seven games this week: with a late out of Dustin Martin, perversely, I think the rest of the Richmond squad will step up to prove they’re more than a one-man team. (This was written Thursday afternoon. Could make me look stupid if it’s not printed until after Friday night, but I’ll take that risk!) Tigers by 11!

Moving on, we think Geelong will win over North by less than the two-goal betting margin; Giants beat the Suns easily; St Kilda makes Sydney work for their victory on Saturday.

Sunday, our numbers have the Lions beating the Bombers at the Gabba, home field being the key; Fremantle holding the thinning Crows close but coming up short.

Finally, as good as the Magpies have been, Melbourne see the cameras and possible full house on Monday afternoon as the chance to stamp their premiership credentials: they will smash Collingwood.

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