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The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 13

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    Two top-four sides go head to head when West Coast travel east to face Sydney at the SCG – and it’s a pairing of teams that has brought us plenty of pleasure over the years.

    You could make a good argument for Sydney to win. They have the home ground advantage, and there’s no telling how West Coast will adjust to the loss of Jack Darling.

    That said, the SCG hasn’t necessarily been the fortress we might think of it as for the Swans this year – they’ve only lost three games this year, but all three came at this ground.

    The Eagles will miss Darling but after spending far too much time doubting them I’m going to back them in to win on the road in challenging circumstances.

    We’re lucky enough to also have a second all-top-four match this week between Richmond and Geelong.

    The Tigers undoubtedly deserve to be in the league’s top handful of teams, but we’re still a bit unsure over the Cats.

    Ghey can largely thank Collingwood for lowering Melbourne’s percentage last week to put them in – they’re in fourth by a margin of 0.7 per cent.

    Gary Ablett has played two really strong games in the last two weeks and it’s no surprise as a result that the Cats look a better side than they have all year.

    Can that carry over enough to become the first team to beat the reigning premiers at the MCG? It could, but probably won’t, so I’m tipping the Tigers.

    Nat Fyfe’s return should be enough to put Fremantle over the top of Carlton even if it is on the road, while I expect all of Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Hawthorn to win fairly comfortably.

    In fact given the state of the Crows’ injury list, I’m going to be bold and back in the Hawks as my lock of the week on Saturday night.

    Lock of the week from the Simpsons

    Adrian Polykandrites
    Port Adelaide, West Coast, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Richmond

    The Power are coming off a win against the premiership favourites. The Dogs stink and scored 26 points last time they were at Adelaide Oval. This one will likely get ugly.

    The Dockers aren’t the same team away from Perth, so I’m tipping the Blues to score their second win of the season in a scrappy but entertaining affair.

    Speaking of scrappy but entertaining, the two clubs under the most pressure face off on the Gold Coast.

    A loss for the Saints against the Suns could quickly bring about the end of Alan Richardson’s time in charge. I think they’ll stave off that talk, for a while at least, with a win.

    Adelaide are too wounded and this game means too much for Hawthorn. The Hawks should win comfortably at the MCG.

    Sunday’s game is fascinating. The Cats really, really need a scalp at the MCG if they’re to be taken seriously, and there’s no greater MCG scalp than the Tigers, who have won 15 straight at The G. It’ll be 16 straight by Sunday afternoon.

    Cameron Rose
    Port Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Richmond

    Port, confidence high, should easily take care of the Dogs.

    West Coast are coming off a bye, which could mean they’re not at their sharpest, are due for a loss, and have to travel across the country. It all points to a Sydney win, the Swans can hit the bye with a full head of steam and their sixth win in a row.

    Carlton can claim their second win of the season against a travelling Freo. Gold Coast are plain awful, and St Kilda can win the death match at Metricon.

    On Saturday night at the MCG, Hawthorn should be too solid for an Adelaide that appears to be spiralling out of the finals race.

    Sunday sees the match of the round, between a Richmond that is struggling to peak consistently through the middle rounds, and a Geelong that has hit a rich vein of form.

    Can the Tigers keep their MCG winning streak going, and break down the Cats defence? The likelihood of a wet day possibly tips it the way of the reigning premiers.

    Port Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Richmond

    Port easily over the Doggies.

    The Eagles are in rich form and have had some mighty victories in their rivalry with the Swans, away from home.

    Sydney have been beating up on weak teams in the last few rounds and it’s difficult to truly get a read on their form, but my suspicion is they can grind out a defensive win on the small SCG against opponents who have come to enjoy the wide spaces of their new home ground.

    Carlton at home to Fremantle is the battle of the walking wounded, with both sides weakened by injury and neither all that crash hot to begin with.

    The Blues have mostly been unconvincing this year, of course, but in what might just be a battle of attrition I think it’s an advantage to come off the bye. Carlton just.

    St Kilda have their problems, but the Suns look completely shot. The Saints to break their losing run.

    Hawthorn would have enjoyed their break and will outlast the struggling Crows in Melbourne.

    The Cats have hit a purple patch and could give Richmond a real shake, but the Tigers’ form at home has been good enough for long at the MCG to back them again here.

    Round 13 Josh E Adrian P Cam R TomC The Crowd
    Last week 6 5 5 6 5
    Total 66 70 66 75 76

    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (99)

    • Roar Guru

      June 14th 2018 @ 8:58am
      AdelaideDocker said | June 14th 2018 @ 8:58am | ! Report

      Jesus, not a whole lotta love for Freo amongst you lot! Anyways, Freo to comfortably beat the Blues.

      Port, Hawthorn and Richmond to all win. St Kilda v Suns will probably be the worst clash of the season – does anybody actually care who wins? Let’s go Saints.

      Sydney v WC will be a cracker. I’ll go West Coast. Just.

      • June 14th 2018 @ 9:14am
        IAP said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:14am | ! Report

        Home ground advantage should be the difference between two terrible teams. St Kilda vs GC will have a GWS-like crowd. The AFL has a real problem – the gulf between the top and bottom teams is huge, and some of those bottom teams look years off being competitive.

        • Roar Guru

          June 14th 2018 @ 9:39am
          Cat said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:39am | ! Report

          But how can that be? So many on this forum tell us going to the draft and going full rebuild is the only answer. By that logic the Saints should be flying; instead they look in need of a new 5 year plan to extend the 7 years their last 5 year plan has run.

          • June 14th 2018 @ 12:09pm
            IAP said | June 14th 2018 @ 12:09pm | ! Report

            Those people are wrong. None of the recent premiership clubs have gutted their lists and started again. The rebuild is an excuse for a poorly run club.

            • June 14th 2018 @ 2:23pm
              Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 2:23pm | ! Report

              ” None of the recent premiership clubs have gutted their lists and started again.” This is an interesting statement given the Tigers have been on a 5 year rebuild since the Terry Wallace era (if not before) and the bulldogs still have 27 of 42 players on their list under 25 2 years after they won a premiership.

              The Saints seem to have got their 5 year rebuild wrong at this stage while the Demons have got their 5 year rebuild right – the strategy isn’t the issue, the execution is. One example is the Dee’s got Jesse Hogan as their high draft pick key forward, the Saints got Paddy McCartin.

              If you look at the blues, who have really gutted their list and started again, when you consider the list the gutted took them to a wooden spoon and by “gutting” it the have ended up with a much more talented list – what other strategy should they have gone with?

              • Roar Guru

                June 14th 2018 @ 2:44pm
                Cat said | June 14th 2018 @ 2:44pm | ! Report

                The point you refuse to see or acknowledge is that the 5 year rebuilds are crap shoots. They aren’t the guarantee of future you proclaim them to be. Far more fail than succeed. Tigers went through what 3, 4 or 5 before they got one right. Brisbane feels like they are on a perpetual rebuild since their three peat. Saints 5 year plan has obviously failed. Blues are on how many in a row now? For the Blues sake I hope it works, but stop acting like 5 year rebuilds are the cure all panacea.

              • June 14th 2018 @ 2:45pm
                IAP said | June 14th 2018 @ 2:45pm | ! Report

                Neither Richmond nor the Dogs went to the bottom of the ladder, and both teams had a mix of experience senior players with youthful exuberance.

              • June 14th 2018 @ 3:06pm
                Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:06pm | ! Report

                Cat- I acknowledge a rebuild is a crap shoot, but the whole game is a crap shoot.

                And while the strategy is far from a guarantee of success there simply isn’t a better alternative for sides that find themselves on the bottom of the heap (other than your suggestion of inventing a time machine and going back to make sure you don’t make the mistakes that took you there).

                The blues are following the same strategy the Hawks and the Cats employed just before their era of sustained success kicked in – get as many quality kids in through the draft as possible in a short period (3 drafts) and allow that core to develop together – looking at the young talent the blues have brought in I am confident they are executing the strategy well.

                For the record the blues are on the second 5 year rebuild – the first saw them go from the worst side in the league to premierships favourites 3 weeks into 2012 – then they proceeded to blow it. The problem wasn’t the rebuild it was the actions subsequent (and the timing of the expansion clubs didn’t help).

              • June 14th 2018 @ 3:09pm
                Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:09pm | ! Report

                IAP – are you saying the blues don’t have senior players?

                And are you saying it is not a rebuild unless you get to the bottom of the ladder?

                And isn’t it likely if not probable that the further down you go, the worse your list is and therefore the more “gutting” you have to do to get back to the top?

                I’ll ask you once again what other strategy should the blues have employed?

              • Roar Guru

                June 14th 2018 @ 6:48pm
                Dalgety Carrington said | June 14th 2018 @ 6:48pm | ! Report

                What are you talking about IHP? From 2012-14 the Bulldogs 15th, 15th & 14th. Buffered from the spoon by the newbies in the Suns for one year and GWS for all of them, with Melbourne and Brisbane in the buffer on occasion too.

                Richmond from 2007-12 finished 16th, 9th, 15th, 15th, 12th, 12th.

              • June 14th 2018 @ 9:34pm
                me too said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:34pm | ! Report

                Saints problem is they never had a proper rebuild like the dogs, tigers, or demons by languishing at the bottom for long. After finals in 2011 they finished 9th, 16th, 18th,14th, 9th, 11th. So only three top 5 picks. Billings (jury out), McCartin (bust) and we got Carlisle and Gresham for pick 5 in 2015 (great value). We needed two more years worth but rose too quickly.
                To compare us to those three is unfair – especially the latter two who had been rebuilding for over a decade.

              • June 14th 2018 @ 10:03pm
                Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 10:03pm | ! Report

                Me too – that’s what I like about the blues rebuild 4 first round picks in the first year (3 in the top 12) SPS, Fisher and Williamson in the second all look quality players (might be bale to add Kerr as well) then getting Two top 10 pick so in the third.

                Throw in the likes of Marchbank, Plowman, Pickett and Kennedy from GWS and Lang from Geelong and they managed to secure a lot more young talent than the Saints.

      • June 14th 2018 @ 11:42am
        George13 said | June 14th 2018 @ 11:42am | ! Report

        “Freo to comfortably beat the Blues”

        Blues will get win number 2 and quite easily. Casboult and Kennedy back. Walters missing. Freo crap on the road this year. Blues rested while Freo no bye yet and 6 day break. Carlton by 30.

        • June 15th 2018 @ 8:36am
          Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 8:36am | ! Report

          Sandilands, Fyfe and Hill back provide a reasonable compensation for Sunny.

    • Roar Rookie

      June 14th 2018 @ 9:29am
      Mattician6x6 said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:29am | ! Report

      Port, wce(still building and shuey return is massive), blues(dockers been awful on road this year) gcs( saints are worse) Hawks, rich( only because at MCG, Geelong are in better form)

      • Roar Guru

        June 14th 2018 @ 9:45am
        AdelaideDocker said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:45am | ! Report

        That WC/Sydney game should be a cracker. I’m blogging it, and I’m very excited.

        Also, I just feel like we’re a stronger side than the Blues. But I suppose it wouldn’t surprise if we drop this one. It’ll just be disappointing as all hell.

        • Roar Guru

          June 14th 2018 @ 9:49am
          Cat said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:49am | ! Report

          I can’t figure out who I want to win in that game. Hate rooting for either. Usually it comes down to who losing benefits my side the most but a case can be made for either scenario being better.

        • Roar Rookie

          June 14th 2018 @ 12:03pm
          Mattician6x6 said | June 14th 2018 @ 12:03pm | ! Report

          I agree that freo should win just can’t tip them due to away form. Its a um and ah game for me, I might change my tip to freo once I’ve seen the sides and expecting one of the great individual games from fyfe 🙂

        • June 14th 2018 @ 3:32pm
          Dan, Concord said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:32pm | ! Report

          AD- can you argue why the Dockers will beat the Blues? I keep going back and forth on my tip for this game. Fyfe is a huge in but then it is in Melbourne and the Blues have been competitive for a lot of their games. If ever the Blues were going to win their 2nd game this would be it! What do you think?

          • June 14th 2018 @ 3:37pm
            Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:37pm | ! Report

            Dan – I don’t think anyone could convincingly argue one way or another at least until the teams have come out – the dockers have to make at least 2 changes and Sandilands isn’t a certain starter just yet while the blues have a number of players returning from injury (Casboult, Kennedy & Pickett at least) but it is unknown whether they come straight in or need to get touch in the VFL.

          • Roar Guru

            June 14th 2018 @ 3:41pm
            Dalgety Carrington said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:41pm | ! Report

            Just to add to your confusion, Freo has a good track record against the Bloooz in Melbourne, although the rest from the bye has proven a big advantage since the reduction in interchange. Freo’s Vic form was tremendous last year, but they’ve hit the skids on the road this year, but it’s generally against good opposition in their best form. Sorry.

            • June 14th 2018 @ 3:47pm
              Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:47pm | ! Report

              Dalgety – while you are right that Fremantle have won the last 3 in Melbourne (while it is 3-3 from the last 6 in Perth) the last time the Dockers played the blues in Melbourne was 2013 and the time before was 2010.

              • Roar Guru

                June 14th 2018 @ 4:49pm
                Dalgety Carrington said | June 14th 2018 @ 4:49pm | ! Report

                You’re hilarious Macca. You’re dismissive about the Dockers away record against Carltoon being a bit old going back to 2013, yet you trumpet Carlton’s 3-3 record, where two of those three came pre-2013 and the only win Carlton’s had over here since was in Freo’s annus horriblis 2016 season, where the Blooz snuck over the line in the game where Fyfe broke his leg.

                But ok fair enough, once a year doesn’t provide a great form guide, but generally Carlton has tended to be one of those sides Freo feels comfortable against for whatever reason and all things being equal will beat more often than not.

              • June 14th 2018 @ 5:24pm
                Macca said | June 14th 2018 @ 5:24pm | ! Report

                Dalgety – I was no “trumpeting” anything – just pointing out the reality, Fremantle rarely play Carlton in Melbourne (they only do it when we double up) and since 2011 Freo have played the blues just once in Melbourne for one win while we are 3-3 in Perth.

                The overriding point is that it is pointless to talk about Freo’s good record when the last time they played in Melbourne Malthouse was in his first year as coach and the time before that Ratten was in his third of 5 years.

                If you went over the teams selected on the weekend outside of Simpson & Kreuzer I doubt you would find a player in the team that has played against the Dockers in Melbourne.

                All that isn’t saying that the blues will win, just pointing out the Melbourne record is useless.

          • Roar Guru

            June 14th 2018 @ 3:55pm
            AdelaideDocker said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:55pm | ! Report

            It’s very true that our travelling record has been dreadful this year, but, no disrespect to the Blues, they’re not entirely the biggest challenge. From memory, the Blues aren’t a high scoring team, which will help us, and Fyfe’s addition should bolster our midfield. Hell, play Fyfey forward and see what he could do.

            I reckon Freo will be on a high after last week, and if our team (plus the very beneficial inclusions) gels as well as last week, we should be strong enough around the ground to beat the Blues.

            Of course, the Blues will be coming off the bye, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re recharged after the break.

            • June 14th 2018 @ 4:12pm
              Maccq said | June 14th 2018 @ 4:12pm | ! Report

              AD – you are right the blues are averaging just 64.8 points per game but the dockers are averaging only 73.5 points per game which drops to just 54.6 away from Perth.

            • June 15th 2018 @ 8:53am
              Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 8:53am | ! Report

              The travelling record has nothing to do with travelling. It is all to do with the opposition.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 9:04am
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 9:04am | ! Report

                Intersting thought, although losing by 5 goals to the 6 win Giants but winning by 3 points over the 6 win crows and losing by a combined 136 points to the 9 win Tigers and Swans but losing to the 10 win Eagles by just 8 points indicates travel has something to do with it.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 9:16am
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 9:16am | ! Report

                Nowhere near as ‘intersting’ as the idea that Casboult is a significant in.

                Percentage alone signifies the inferiority of Carlton.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 9:22am
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 9:22am | ! Report

                Who said Carlton were the superior team?

                And what is Freo’s % on the road this year?

                As for Casboult – it is hard to see how a player with 10 goals in his last 5 games isn’t a significant in for one of the lowest scoring sides in the comp and when added to the loss of the oppositions best tall defender only you could think it wasn’t “significant”.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 10:03am
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 10:03am | ! Report

                No one. I can’t imagine they ever will.

                You will only ever convince yourself re: Casboult.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 10:19am
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 10:19am | ! Report

                Once again Don, you show your lack of ability to comprehend a simply concept by focusing solely on Casboult and not the combination of he and Pearce.

                As I said only you would think that it was insignificant that Casboult coming in changes the match ups for C Curnow and Kerr AND then Pearce going out changes those match ups even further. Before those changes Pearce would either have had a field day on Kerr or more likely had an interesting battle with Charlie Curnow.

                Now your tallest defender looks to be Hamling who will give up 6cm to Casboult and Lyon is talking about sending Cox back to run with Curnow and It looks likely Kerr will and up with a positive size mismatch instead of a negative one.

                Whether or not the blues win – they are significant changes.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 11:32am
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 11:32am | ! Report

                Shane Kersten will have no problem with Casboult…let alone anyone else. You keep on trying to argue an unarguable reality. No one, apart from you, sees Casboult as a threat at all…in any game.

                The return of Sandi allows the outstanding pack marking of Apeness to be deployed up forward. Cox could be free then. After all, he is mainly a key position defender but that would only be for his development. Cox is very fast and that would be a good experience. It is unlikely to happen, however. Hamling and Ryan are both fast enough and sufficiently tall to quench Curnow and then roll off Casboult to mount attacks through Hill and Wilson.

                Still, you had a moment of hope as you typed your last post. I’d like to say I’m sorry to have pricked your bubble but, as always, it delights me.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 12:03pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 12:03pm | ! Report

                Oh Don the fact you think you “pricked my bubble” just goes to show how little you grasp of the discussion, whatever combination of defenders Lyon arranges it will be “significantly” different to the way the match ups would have been had the teams played in round 11 due to you losing Pearce and us gaining Casboult – that is a irrefutable fact.

                As for your match ups if you want to play the 191cm Kersten on the 200cm Casboult I won’t complain, if you want to have the 186cm Ryan man the 194cm Curnow or Kerr I’d be happy enough.

                And it isn’t speed that you need for Cunrow, it is endurance.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 1:26pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 1:26pm | ! Report

                Oh no, Curnow’s quick, too. I think you under-estimate him.

                By the way, there is no discussion here. You are just being a nong and I am pointing it out. No one has discussions with you. You don’t know how to.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 1:33pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 1:33pm | ! Report

                Oh Don – you are pointing out one of us is being a nong, but unfortunately for you it isn’t me. I must say though I do love how you think you get the best of our exchanges despite all evidence to the contrary, in a lot of ways being as slow on the uptake as you are is a real benefit to you, if you had more self awareness it would be very depressing for you.

                And yes Curnow is quick too, but it isn’t speed that you need to match up on him, it is endurance.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 2:29pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 2:29pm | ! Report

                The Macca school of argument:
                “No you are!”

              • June 15th 2018 @ 2:42pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 2:42pm | ! Report

                Oh come one Don you are really embarrassing yourself now – my comment wasn’t an argument, simply a statement of fact – your posts are only pointing out what a nong you are.

                As for the actual argument, my very obvious observation that the blues adding Casboult AND the Dockers losing Pearce is “significant” remains unchallenged by you because you have been to busy making a f0 01 of yourself – so to this point I haven’t had to employ any “school of argument” beyond repetition and explanation in the misplaced hope that for once your will comprehend the topic at hand.

                Time to quit while you are a mile behind Don.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 3:03pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 3:03pm | ! Report

                Pearce, of course, is an AA squad probable. Casboult is a real plodder. There is no valid point made there. It’s like comparing an actress with a rugby player.

                Remember, I’m the one making the comments and you are the one trailing behind with “wait for me” cries. I’m in front and you are wailing away with the calls for relevance. Try to initiate a comment. That might illustrate a mind at work.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 3:14pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 3:14pm | ! Report

                Just when I think you have hit the bottom you get out a shovel and keep digging.

                Firstly it isn’t a comparison, it is an aggregate.

                Secondly given it was my comment that initiated this exchange your second paragraph is bewilderingly lacking in awareness even for you.

                As I said time to quit while you are a mile behind.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 4:14pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 4:14pm | ! Report

                To which “it” do you refer?

              • June 15th 2018 @ 4:30pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 4:30pm | ! Report

                Don – self flagellation is best done in private, no one wants to watch you torture yourself like this.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 4:38pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 4:38pm | ! Report

                To which “it” do you refer?

              • June 15th 2018 @ 4:44pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 4:44pm | ! Report

                Oh no I have broken Don, his stained efforts to comprehend have finally made him snap and he is stuck in a loop.

                Keep calm Don and just relax, everything will be OK, just please don’t try to think beyond your normal “Freo good” level.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 5:04pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 5:04pm | ! Report

                To which “it” do you refer?

              • June 15th 2018 @ 5:11pm
                Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 5:11pm | ! Report

                Come on Don leave it alone, this is clearly a concept beyond your capabilities.

                If I thought you had any basic comprehension skills I would ask you to re-read your post, find the “it” where you suggested something was “like” a comparison and bobs your uncle but as you don’t just please go back to sorting your coloured blocks.

              • June 15th 2018 @ 10:52pm
                Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 10:52pm | ! Report

                To which “it” do you refer?

                Still don’t have an answer? You’ve had since 3.14pm.

              • June 16th 2018 @ 8:42am
                Macca said | June 16th 2018 @ 8:42am | ! Report

                You sure I haven’t answered? Try again now you have a good nights sleep, you may just get there, after all the answer is so obvious a 3 year old would see it so you are half a chance.

              • Roar Guru

                June 16th 2018 @ 10:37pm
                DingoGray said | June 16th 2018 @ 10:37pm | ! Report

                I wish Carlton was as quick as you are to respond critiscm

        • June 15th 2018 @ 8:47am
          Don Freo said | June 15th 2018 @ 8:47am | ! Report

          Gee AD, for a minute there, I thought you were talking about the Eagles as ‘we’.

    • Roar Guru

      June 14th 2018 @ 9:46am
      Cat said | June 14th 2018 @ 9:46am | ! Report

      The likelihood of a wet day possibly tips it the way of the reigning premiers.

      I’m curious on your reasoning behind that Cam. I’ve no issue with your tip, I reckon the game is 50/50, hard to get an accurate read on either side right now. As far as wet goes, I’d have thought it would favour the Cats. The best defense in the comp has played ugly stoppage heavy slogs already and come out on top each time. Cats have also traditionally been one of the best wet weather sides for years and years now.

      • June 14th 2018 @ 10:34am
        Rissole said | June 14th 2018 @ 10:34am | ! Report

        Richmond also like fast, play-on-at-all-costs football so I’d agree with Cat here. Wet weather should suit the Cats more.

      • June 14th 2018 @ 11:45am
        Brian said | June 14th 2018 @ 11:45am | ! Report

        Agree on the wet but the MCG suits Richmond a lot more then Geelong
        Geelnog are 2-2 at the MCG this year and 12-13 in their last 25 games there. On the MCG Richmond should do it easy.

        • Roar Guru

          June 14th 2018 @ 11:50am
          Cat said | June 14th 2018 @ 11:50am | ! Report

          Goes to show how ridiculous it is that Richmond gets to play both match-ups at their home ground.

          Its what it is though and Cats will find a way.

          As for comparing MCG records it is a flawed comparison. Cats only get to play the ‘big clubs’ there and most, if not all of them, happen to be ‘up’ right now. Tigers get to pad their record out by playing everyone there. That and the home team should have a better record at their ground.

          • June 14th 2018 @ 5:13pm
            Peter said | June 14th 2018 @ 5:13pm | ! Report

            haha, geelong is all for having their home games at the MCG when they play big Vic clubs. They see the $$ signs and their eyes light up, that’s why they agreed to it. It’s quite rich to agree to games there for money and they complain that the other team has a home ground advantage.

            Also wet weather footy is contested ball footy. Cats are last in contested footy for the year. I’d say that’s pretty good reasoning for saying that wet weather doesn’t suit the cats?

    • Roar Guru

      June 14th 2018 @ 11:33am
      DingoGray said | June 14th 2018 @ 11:33am | ! Report

      I’m chasing hard here Rick………

      Port playing a Doggies team at Adelaide oval, I reckon there’s 4-6 in Port’s favour
      Swans at home. I still have ? over Eagles travel form. Swans to scrap as usual and win by 8-14 points
      Freo, good win at home last start. no Fyfe and Sandy…. both possible back in against the bottom team. They should win
      Saints- I can’t tip the Suns, they are putrid
      Hawks by 25 against the Crows
      Cats by 10 in another wet weather slog. Forecast in Melbourne looks horrible.

      • Roar Guru

        June 14th 2018 @ 3:57pm
        AdelaideDocker said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:57pm | ! Report

        Good tips. I will add that the forecast for Adelaide tonight looks very, very bad. Will be a horrible slog at AO for the Port game.

        • Roar Guru

          June 14th 2018 @ 5:58pm
          Rick Disnick said | June 14th 2018 @ 5:58pm | ! Report

          My powerplay tip is riding on this game. No other game appeared safe. Wet weather does not make this so now.

          Might make a late change to the Hawks vs Crows match, but even this match isn’t safe.


          • Roar Guru

            June 14th 2018 @ 6:10pm
            AdelaideDocker said | June 14th 2018 @ 6:10pm | ! Report

            Actually, a lot of the rain seems to be almost done for now. Then again, I could be wrong. Very cold and windy, still.

            I’m just glad I’m working tonight – nice and warm inside.

      • Roar Guru

        June 14th 2018 @ 5:55pm
        Rick Disnick said | June 14th 2018 @ 5:55pm | ! Report

        This is the round that will make or break the top, Dingo. Funnily, I’m tipping very similar to you again this weekend.

        However, I have a very simple rule. When both teams are putrid, go the home team. My only tip different is the Suns over the Saints.

        Three critical games as I see it:

        1. Blues vs Freo
        2. Suns vs Saints
        3. Cats vs Tiges

        If I get all three right, I should be leading by 2.
        If not….well that ain’t going to happen.

        Mind you, if you get all right, I’m guessing you won’t be far off the lead with me. Peter Baker is the guy to beat I’m thinking. He’s very consistent and I’m almost certain which teams he’ll pick.

        It may come in handy come the final round if I’m down. 🙂

        I, on the other hand, are completely unpredictable in my picks.

        • Roar Guru

          June 14th 2018 @ 6:08pm
          AdelaideDocker said | June 14th 2018 @ 6:08pm | ! Report

          I forgot to join the tipping this year, but rest assured I’ll be there in 2019. Seems …. competitive, to say the very least.

          • Roar Guru

            June 14th 2018 @ 6:27pm
            Rick Disnick said | June 14th 2018 @ 6:27pm | ! Report

            It’s always competitive when I’m involved. I hate losing to my wife when walking to the car.

            At least you won’t lose to me like everyone else. 🙂

        • Roar Guru

          June 15th 2018 @ 12:54pm
          DingoGray said | June 15th 2018 @ 12:54pm | ! Report

          Always feel better about my tipping when I can knock the powerplay up in the 1st game of the round!!!!!
          No Lions playing this week so 1st time I’ve had to think about my power play. (Doesn’t matter who we play, every week i pick against us with the powerplay. Only come unstuck once so far…. lol)

          Thank you very much Port Adelaide.

          Totally agree on the three critical games Rick.

          With number 2, I think the Saints have been far away more competitive than the Suns. I just can’t pick a side who’s pretty much had back to back 100 point loses even if they are @ home.

          • Roar Guru

            June 15th 2018 @ 3:05pm
            Rick Disnick said | June 15th 2018 @ 3:05pm | ! Report

            True, I stuck with Port also. Only clear game for me where the powerplay was reasonably safe. Haven’t dropped a powerplay yet either.

            Tonight will be interesting, but I suspect most at the top will pick the Swans. Could be wrong there though.

            I’m one of but a few that have gone the Suns. It’s a coin toss — I have no idea who will win, which is why I’ve gone the home team. That’s it.

            Cats are critical. Most will go the Tiges to play it safe, but my boys have been pretty good. I think they’ll roll the Tiges. If we lose that one though, I suspect we’ll drop back.

            Probably a 50-50 split at the top with the Blues-Freo match.

            Rest of the games are meaningless from a tipping perspective.

            • Roar Guru

              June 15th 2018 @ 3:53pm
              DingoGray said | June 15th 2018 @ 3:53pm | ! Report

              Swans n Eagles a bit more interesting than 1st thought.

              Just reading the preview before, I had no idea McVeigh was out. Both McVeigh & Mills out really hurts them I think, but then I guess you make the point Barass out for Eagles hurts them.

              McGovern having to do a shut down role on Buddy will be interesting part of the game.

              Cats & Tigers will be a cracker. Can’t wait for that one.

            • Roar Guru

              June 16th 2018 @ 10:37pm
              DingoGray said | June 16th 2018 @ 10:37pm | ! Report

              Just need your Cats now Rick.

    • Roar Rookie

      June 14th 2018 @ 11:38am
      WCE said | June 14th 2018 @ 11:38am | ! Report

      sadly I agree if the saints lose to lowly GC then Richo is a gonner, although personally I have picked the saints to win comfortably . The freo /blues game is a real toss up, I’ve picked the blues but I think one could go either way. I hope The mighty Coasters grab the win against Sydney but I am worried because big Tommy Barrass hasn’t travelled with the team so curtailing buddy will be the priority and key to a win…somehow.

    • June 14th 2018 @ 11:52am
      johno said | June 14th 2018 @ 11:52am | ! Report

      No love for Freo, no real surprises there

      Yes Freo have been poor away from home ….. against Sydney, Port, Collingwood, GWS, Richmond – notice anything about those teams that doesn’t ring true with Carlton?

      But equally Carlton have been poor …everywhere

      Freo finally get an easy away game (one of only two for the season when you include the Bombers later on) and there’s nobobdy willing to back them at Etihad.

      Freo have an 18-13 record against the Blues and 4-1 in recent times. they’ve beaten the Blues at Etihad the last 2 times (although they haven’t been there to play them since 2013)

      Freo should start warm favorites in this game, despite the loss of Alex Pearce and Michael Walters. Fyfe and Duman the likely replacements, with Ballantyne another possible change and Crowden in.

      Freo by 4 goals

      • June 14th 2018 @ 3:41pm
        dontknowmuchaboutfootball said | June 14th 2018 @ 3:41pm | ! Report

        Sandi will be in, probably for Jones. St.Hill is a smokey, and McCarthy’s a chance too.

        • June 15th 2018 @ 6:29am
          johno said | June 15th 2018 @ 6:29am | ! Report

          IN: Fyfe, Sandi, S Hill …not a bad returning trio

          OUT: Walters, A Pearce, Jones …. losing your best forward and defender hurts a bit

          • June 15th 2018 @ 8:55am
            Macca said | June 15th 2018 @ 8:55am | ! Report

            Freo losing Pearce and the blues getting Casboult back is a significant swing.

            • June 15th 2018 @ 10:09am
              true blue said | June 15th 2018 @ 10:09am | ! Report

              I hope you are right. The fact that so many people are picking us makes me nervous. It’s great to see that Cripps and Curnow have re-signed.

            • Roar Guru

              June 16th 2018 @ 10:39pm
              DingoGray said | June 16th 2018 @ 10:39pm | ! Report

              All well and good, but can’t do much when it don’t get in the forward 50

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