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The bye weeks are done, and the finish line is just outside of our view. And aren’t we set up for a frantic run home?
Various projections systems had already narrowed our list of finals contenders down to ten. This is unlikely to have changed after the bye rounds, save perhaps a slight uptick in the meagre chance afforded to an end of year Essendon revival.
Make no mistake, our sights can be narrowed to the ten teams sitting first to tenth on the ladder. We will draw our finalists from this lot. And within this, as it stands at least, most are rated as a safe bet. The top six are offering single digit ‘to make the eight’ returns at most books, for instance.
If this is the case, then what a joyous development for neutral fans of Australian rules football. Our 2018 ladder is so delicately poised at the top end that nearly any permutation you can ream up is still possible. A Geelong-Melbourne 1-2 finish? Absolutely. Hawthorn jumping from ninth into the top four? Yep. West Coast sliding down to an away elimination final in the first week? Sadly, yes this is also possible.
Greater Western Sydney, the laggard of the group of ten, is a mere 1.5 wins and 66 points of margin from Collingwood in fourth. It’s tight up top.
Going forward, there are two types of games that are going to matter most: the much-hyped eight point games (where two teams close to each other on the ladder face off) and the opportunities to beat down on the bottom few teams, run up a score and boost percentage. Here’s what each of the top ten’s set of games looks like.
| Eight Point Games | Beat Down Chances | |
| Richmond | 4 | 2 |
| Sydney | 7 | 1 |
| WCE | 5 | 1 |
| Collingwood | 5 | 2 |
| Port Adelaide | 3 | 2 |
| Melbourne | 4 | 2 |
| Geelong | 4 | 2 |
| North Melbourne | 3 | 3 |
| Hawthorn | 3 | 3 |
| Greater Western Sydney | 6 | 2 |
On the eight point game front it’s Sydney most in control of its destiny, with a stunning seven of its remaining nine games coming against teams in the race for finals. The Swans face Richmond, Geelong and North Melbourne in successive weeks before a light reprieve (including its only beat down opportunity, against Gold Coast). They then sail home with games against Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn – with one or both of the latter likely to be eliminated by that stage, but still.
The Swans are doing what they do every year: winning around twice as many games as they lose. They’re yet to really hit their straps too, grinding out games and spending a lot of time with the ball and the play in their back half. After 14 rounds they’ve been crunched into second favourite for the flag, a product perhaps of the club’s pristine 6-0 record away from home in 2018. Much of what happens from here has something to do with the Swans.
Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Their cross-town rivals also have an opportunity to shape their destiny. The GWS Giants play six of their remaining games against the teams above them on the ladder. Four of them come in the next four weeks – after which we will categorically know if GWS will play finals football this season. A suspension to Jeremy Cameron, their number one forward (both objectively and subjectively), for at least that stretch will make it a challenging task.
West Coast and Collingwood both play more than half of their remaining games against fellow finals aspirants, including a game against each other in Round 17. The rest of the set has either four or three games against their peers, with the Power, ‘Roos and Hawks
All told, there are 22 games remaining that are to be played by teams inside the top ten – around 2.5 a week. It starts immediately: Richmond hosts Sydney this Thursday night (at Etihad – effectively making it an away game for the Tigers), and the Giants host Hawthorn. Rounds 17 and 18 loom large as decisive rounds of football, each having three top ten match ups involving nine of the ten teams (Hawthorn escapes).
The Hawks are outside the eight on percentage, but have ample opportunity to boost their numbers in their final nine games. Hawthorn plays Brisbane, Carlton and St Kilda, three of the four worst defensive teams in the competition. The Hawks also play the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and Essendon. The club’s fixture is an enormous opportunity for it to jettison itself into September action.
However they’ll have to outperform North Melbourne who also has a relatively weak slate of opponents on the run home. They too play three of the four weakest defences (Gold Coast instead of Carlton), and have a few of the weaker mid table teams around their three peer group matches.
Sydney and West Coast have more or less spent their opportunities to run up huge margins against the weaker teams in the competition, each having just one game against the bottom four defences on their run home.
The Swans are looking good. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
There are opportunities for all teams still in the finals hunt to get into a top four position and win this year’s premiership. Every team inside the top ten has looked sparkling for at least a week or two in 2018; all have the capability to play at a top four level.
We are not more than a fortnight removed from West Coast’s ten game winning streak. After Essendon shut down the Eagles’ ball movement in a similar fashion to the Sydney Swans a week prior, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Richmond, Sydney and Collingwood are the form teams of the competition, but all have their weaknesses.
Port Adelaide has thrown off the shackles and released its potent forward half, with arguably predictable results. Their match against Melbourne on Friday night was one of the most tense and combative of the season to date – a finals-like contest in June. Could they be set for a top four run in the final nine games of the home and away season?
It’s all ahead of us, and it’s set up perfectly.