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The term ‘mathematical chance’ is one every coach, player and supporter hates to hear. It’s the last thing that you hear before the dirt is shovelled over your clubs season.
It is very rare that with ten matches still to go there are already four sides cannot make the finals. It is rarer still that another four are already only in with a mathematical chance of playing finals footy.
The reality is that the Knights, Titans, Tigers and Raiders stand very little chance of making the finals.
Why?
Because the sides above them are already too far ahead.
In over 70 per cent of the 19 completed seasons of the NRL so far, 28 points were required to make it into the top eight. On a couple of occasions it was less, but in only one instance – 1999 – was more than 30 points required to make the top eight.
As it was in 2017, this year 30 points will be the cut off for the eight, with points differential likely to decide final positions within it.
What makes a higher cut off for the eight? Well a distinct bottom four, like the one we have this season, certainly aids that separation.
When you examine each club’s run in, the case is pretty compelling that the eight we currently have are the ones that will be in the finals.
Current Points: 24
Matches Remaining: Eels (h), Storm (a), Wests Tigers (h), Cowboys (a), Roosters (a), Warriors (h), Eels (a), Wests Tigers (h), Bulldogs (h), Knights (a)
To be assured of a finals berth the Dragons only need to win three of those games. I count four that I’m fairly confident they’ll win, and possibly as many as nine.
While Dragons fans will count nothing as a certainty after last year’s choke, I cannot see them missing the finals.
Why they’ll make it: The 2018 Dragons is a very good unit and they can fall over this cut off.
Why they won’t make it: Only total disaster can stop them.
Predicted final points: 40
Current Points: 22
Matches Remaining: Cowboys (h), Bye, Bulldogs (a), Wests Tigers (a), Eels (h), Storm (h), Roosters (h), Broncos (a), Raiders (a), Wests Tigers (h)
The Rabbitohs have not looked this good since 2014. They look like a complete side. To make the finals they only need three wins because they still have the bye to come.
I’m fairly confident they’ll have the eight points they need in the next four rounds. Not only can I not see them missing the eight, I can’t see them missing the top four.
Why they’ll make it: Seibold has this side singing again. The Bunnies are back to their best and Angus Crichton and Damien Cook have filled the holes left by Issac Luke and Ben Te’o.
Why they won’t make it: Again, only total disaster can stop them.
Predicted final points: 40
Current Points: 22
Matches Remaining: Sea Eagles (h), Warriors (h), Sharks (h), Broncos (a), Sea Eagles (a), Raiders (h), Titans (a), Knights (h), Warriors (a), Storm (a)
The Panthers need four wins from their ten remaining games to make 30 points. They have five home games and play the struggling Sea Eagles twice. I can’t see them missing unless disaster befalls them.
They’ve been hit hard by the injury fairy this year and have kept winning. I see them winning seven of those games.
Why they’ll make it: If the horrid run of injuries they’ve suffered this year so far hasn’t managed to derail them then I can’t see them being derailed.
Why they won’t make it: Jimmy Maloney gets injured.
Predicted final points: 36
Current Points: 22
Matches Remaining: Sharks (h), Panthers (a), Broncos (a), Storm (h), Titans (a), Dragons (a), Knights (h), Bulldogs (a), Panthers (h), Raiders (h)
They started better than ever this season but have fallen away a bit. However, they only require four more wins to hit the magic 30 point mark and they’ve got five home games.
The Warriors can choke better than any side. There is a possibility that they could win only three and miss the finals. However, I reckon they’ll win four or five at least.
Why they’ll make it: They can fall across this line. Surely their good start means they can survive even a bad fade out this time?
Why they won’t make it: It’s the Warriors. They put the OK in choke.
Predicted final points: 32
Current Points: 20
Matches Remaining: Roosters (a), Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a), Warriors (a), Raiders (h), Rabbitohs (a), Sharks (h), Eels (h), Titans (a), Panthers (h)
In past seasons the Storm getting five wins from ten starts, with five of them at home would have been a gimme. I count three almost certain wins there, no more.
If either Smith or Slater go down injured they might not get even that and miss out on their first finals campaign – except 2010 – since Craig Bellamy took over.
However, with Cam Smith at the helm I see them getting at least six wins.
Why they’ll make it: Cam Smith knows how to lead a side.
Why they won’t make it: If Cam Smith gets injured they could collapse.
Predicted final points: 32
Current Points: 20
Matches Remaining: Storm (h), Bye, Titans (a), Sea Eagles (h), Dragons (h), Cowboys (h), Rabbitohs (a), Raiders (a), Broncos (h), Eels (a)
With the bye still to come, the Roosters need to find four wins to be assured of finals footy. I can find three likely wins with two probables. I reckon they’ll jag at least one of those. However, their pack ain’t what it once was. They could just miss if things go astray.
Why they’ll make it: Five home matches to come and five games against bottom eight sides.
Why they won’t make it: If Cooper Cronk, Luke Cleary or Boyd Cordner go down they’ll struggle.
Predicted final points: 30
Current Points: 18
Matches Remaining: Warriors (a), Bye, Panthers (a), Raiders (h), Broncos (a), Sea Eagles (h), Storm (a), Cowboys (h), Knights (h), Bulldogs (a)
Five from nine is the equation for the Sharks. I see four there that are likely, with the rest tough. I reckon they’ll jag five. However, if the injury fairy strikes they could fall short.
Why they’ll make it: Surely this team is too good and too experienced to miss the finals. Their run home is pretty good too.
Why they won’t make it: Josh Dugan is perennially injured, Matt Moylan’s form is totally erratic. Paul Gallen and Luke Lewis are one injury from retirement. Aaron Woods has arrived. It could all go wrong.
Predicted final points: 30
Current Points: 18
Matches Remaining: Raiders (h), Titans (a), Warriors (h), Panthers (h), Sharks (h), Bulldogs (a), Cowboys (a), Rabbitohs (h), Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (h)
Six wins is what the Broncos need and they have six home matches. However, four of those games are against top eight sides. I see four probable wins there but I reckon they’ll scramble six and sneak in.
And no, Gerard Sutton isn’t biased towards them. That stat is just an outlier. Sutton is a through and through professional who refs the game as he sees it. Any suggestion otherwise is bollocks.
Why they’ll make it: Five matches against bottom eight sides to come with six home games as well.
Why they won’t make it: They aren’t that good. They show glimpses of talent but there isn’t the cohesion a real contender requires.
Predicted final points: 30
Current Points: 14
Matches Remaining: Broncos (a), Bulldogs (a), Cowboys (h), Sharks (a), Storm (a), Panthers (a), Wests Tigers (h), Roosters (h), Rabbitohs (h), Warriors (a)
Eight wins from ten games. It is a very big ask. Even with the Hodgson returning it’s a huge ask. Seven of those ten games are against current top eight sides. Only four are home games. I think it may well come down to the last round for the Raiders.
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Why they’ll make it: Josh Hodgson is back and the moment he walked back on the field the side looked so much better.
Why they won’t make it: It’s just too big a mountain to climb.
Predicted final points: 28
Current Points: 14
Matches Remaining: Titans (h), Bye, Dragons (a), Rabbitohs (h), Bulldogs (a), Knights (a), Raiders (a), Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (h), Rabbitohs (a)
After a cracking start, Ivan’s bus has been struggling of late under the weight of injuries and not being able to ambush sides. However, they aren’t gone yet.
With Moses Mbye coming in and prodigal son Robbie Farah returning, there is a bit more danger to this side immediately. Their biggest enemy is the number of away games they’ve got to play. I can only see them picking up ten points on the run in though, including the bye.
Why they’ll make it: Because Ivan is a cracking coach, Farah will fix the hooking issue, Mbye will add class at the back and the bus will start rolling again.
Why they won’t make it: They’ve left it too late.
Predicted final points: 24
Current Points: 12
Matches Remaining: Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h), Roosters (h), Knights (a), Warriors (h), Eels (a), Panthers (h), Sea Eagles (a), Storm (h), Cowboys (h)
The Titans can only afford to drop one more game. While they’ve got six home games left, their required nine wins are four more than the Titans have won this season in total. It is mathematically possible but that’s all.
Why they’ll make it: They won’t
Why they won’t make it: They aren’t good enough and they have too much to do.
Predicted final points: 18
Current Points: 12
Matches Remaining: Bulldogs (h), Bye, Eels (h), Titans (h), Cowboys (a), Wests Tigers (h), Warriors (a), Panthers (a), Sharks (a), Dragons (h)
I can see the Knights going on a bit of a run here and accumulating ten points in a hurry before they hit a really tough run at the end that floors them. They need 18 points and I can really only see ten there.
Why they’ll make it: They won’t.
Why they won’t make it: They aren’t good enough and they have too much to do.
Predicted final points: 22
All the sides below that point do not have a mathematical chance of achieving 30 points.
So, how does that see the final ladder after the home-and-away season?
| Projected Ladder | ||
| Pos. | Team | Points |
| 1st | Rabbitohs | 40 |
| 2nd | Dragons | 40 |
| 3rd | Panthers | 36 |
| 4th | Storm | 32 |
| 5th | Warriors | 32 |
| 6th | Sharks | 30 |
| 7th | Broncos | 30 |
| 8th | Roosters | 30 |
| 9th | Raiders | 28 |
| 10th | Wests Tigers | 24 |
| 11th | Knights | 22 |
| 12th | Titans | 18 |
| 13th | Cowboys | 16 |
| 14th | Sea Eagles | 14 |
| 15th | Eels | 12 |
| 16th | Bulldogs | 10 |