On Saturday night – well, Sunday morning – the knockout rounds begin. The frantic calculations, tallying up points, goals scored, head-to-head records, and – sorry Senegal – yellow cards are over.
Things are set now, with the Round of 16 match-ups decided, and the stakes raised up out of the fog and into the cold clear air for all to see.
For those of us with, for instance, English heritage, it seems logical to jump on the Three Lions bandwagon, inflating our hopes as we do our lungs to sing one more dizzy round of Football’s Coming Home.
Many of us will have picked up a side-team already, at whom we’ve fluttered our lashes between Socceroos games, blowing air kisses at Croatia, or feinting foppish swooning at Mexico.
But now that the Roos are out, the best way to soften the heartache is to refocus on the contenders still on the board and dip a toe into the eight matches coming up.
Obviously, the Round of 16 tie that glows the brightest is the match between France and Argentina. Over the past five World Cups, three occasions have seen a Round of 16 fixture pit two former World Cup winners against one another.
Argentina’s group stage was a roller coaster ride, oscillating wildly between the devastating drubbing by Croatia – which inspired this hilarious gesture on Argentinian television – and the jubilant win over Nigeria, sealed by Marcos Rojo’s wrong-footed volleyed winner.
Argentina were the worst second-place finisher, in terms of points and goal difference, to qualify for the next round, finishing with four points and a goal difference of -2; to put that in perspective, both Iran and Senegal were eliminated with a better record. Will this good fortune spur Argentina on, or will their odd lethargy continue to hamper them, to dull the edge they could so clearly cut through with?
Will their goalkeeper again give Willies a bad name, failing to go long and hard, embarrassing himself with the limpest of efforts? Will Messi cement himself as the GOAT, or merely the scapegoat? The fiery narratives – and double-entendres – almost as much as the football creates them, are most appealing.
France, too – although having won their group – haven’t really hit the high gears their team is built rev up to. France were last beaten by a South American side in the World Cup way back in 1978, not that Kylian Mbappe – born after the French took the 1998 World Cup on home soil – will be able to draw all that much from that particular tidbit.
Their willingness to treat their final group game against Denmark as a training match – a fairly gross example of unspoken, casual collusion between two teams for whom a 0-0 draw was an ideal result – might end up hurting them; momentum can be a valuable asset to gather up in a World Cup, and a pedestrian draw, with a significantly altered team, generated none for Didier Deschamps’ team.
On the other hand, of course, they will be well rested.
Next, let’s take these three pieces of information: most of the Russian Winter Olympic team were banned from competing in the PyeongChang winter games this year, when a state-run doping program was exposed; the Russian football team is the sixth oldest in the tournament (average age – 28.8); FIFA recently refused to release how many drug tests it has conducted on the Russian team at the World Cup.
Now, with all that in mind, the fact that the Russian team, as a group, completed more sprints-per-game, at a higher average speed, and over a longer distance than any other World Cup team, well, eyes have certainly narrowed, as finger and thumb are brought neatly to cradle doubting chins.
Of course, it wouldn’t be fair not to mention the fact that Russia also have the best conversion rate in the tournament – an incredible eight goals from 11 shots on target – something that has obviously contributed to their progression and can’t really be boosted by illicit supplements.
They will face Spain, the fourth-last placed team on that sprinting table, industry pitted firmly against technique. A win for Spain would set up quarter-final – most likely – with Croatia, probably the tastiest QF possibility in the draw. With all the hubbub around England losing so they can avoid Brazil, Germany’s calamitous departure, or the attacking might of Belgium, Spain have somehow flown under the radar.
When the Spanish pass-pixies align their football-telepathy and brush the softness into their feet, the football they play is mesmeric. The majority in the stadium will be hoping they’re beaten up and thrown out, but one suspects the majority at home want to see Spain hang around.
Belgium vs Japan should be a beautiful contest. Two statistical quirks, that Japan have committed the fewest fouls in the tournament, and that Belgium have scored the most goals from open play, indicate this could be a free and easy game of sparkling attacking football.
Seeing James Rodriguez limp off with an injury that has left the Colombia manager “extremely concerned” has further cemented England’s happy defeat in their final group game. If they beat the South Americans – of course, no small feat – a quarter-final with Sweden or Switzerland beckons.
It’s an odd thing, isn’t it; for the first time in two decades, England successfully entered the tournament largely unburdened by the quadrennial anchor of national expectation, with a very young team and a young English manager. They’ve played very well, as a result.
There’s everything to be hopeful about, but hope is the one thing the English are most afraid of. They’re like the character in screwball superhero movie Mystery Men, who can turn invisible, but only when no one’s watching him.
For some reason Uruguay vs Portugal strikes me as a match in which some gross injustice or piece of villainy will occur. Perhaps it’s just the sheer presence of two of football’s most notorious miscreants, Luis Suarez and Pepe.
Croatia should take care of Denmark, and Switzerland should probably beat Sweden. The Swiss haven’t lost a game in 2018, having played Brazil and Serbia in this tournament, as well as Spain and Japan in the qualifying or lead-up games.
Theirs is a team almost earmarked as a candidate to inflict a torturous, unexpected-yet-entirely-predictable England defeat, and will play them in the quarters should both teams make it.
There are no more 10 pm kick-offs, so with Australia out, here marks the point beyond which only the most dedicated and caffeine-addled will roam.
It’s fine to be an impassioned neutral, but jumping on a bandwagon makes the journey into the wee hours and latter rounds a quicker and more lively excursion; which team will you be following most closely from here on out?
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