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Before we even know what has hit us, Collingwood are second on the ladder after 15 rounds. Their win-loss record is 10-4, and they’ve won half a dozen matches in a row by an average margin in excess of six goals.
This time last year, the Pies were languishing in 15th position, having just suffered their third consecutive loss. The future of coach Nathan Buckley was hanging by a thread, and in truth there were few who thought he would see out the season, let alone earn a contract extension.
Just like for Richmond from 2016 to 2017, the wheel has turned far quicker than almost anyone could have imagined.
The Tigers finished 13th in 2016, just as Collingwood finished 13th last year. This type of ladder position, in the bottom six, results in what we call a friendly fixture the season after.
Of course, no-one knows exactly which teams are going to be strong or weak from year to year, and every season springs surprises. The above two examples are cases in point.
The unpredictable vagaries of form also play a big role. Would you rather your team play Essendon now when they are running hot, or back in May when they were a basket-case? St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs are much tougher propositions now than they were a month or two ago, as Melbourne and Geelong found out on the weekend.
Collingwood manager Nate Buckley (AAP Image/Alex Murray)
But back to Collingwood.
Their wins this season have been against Carlton, Adelaide, Essendon, Brisbane, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again, and Gold Coast.
It’s an unimpressive list of names based on 2018 form, and their respective ladder positions after 15 rounds bear this out: 18th, 11th, 12th, 17th, 15th, 14th, 13th, seventh, 18th, 16th.
They’ve only beaten one team currently in the top ten, which was Melbourne, and the Demons themselves have an unflattering 1-5 record against the top ten.
In layman’s terms, the Pies have beaten no-one.
The Collingwood losses, albeit there haven’t been many, also tell a little story.
The Pies have gone down to Hawthorn (10th), GWS (6th), Richmond (1st), and Geelong (8th). Their average losing margin in these contests has been just shy of five goals.
They may have only beaten one team inside the top 10, but they haven’t lost to anyone below that. They’re definitely a top eight team, that’s beyond dispute. They’re almost certainly a top six side.
Whether they are a legitimate top four contender, and thus a premiership fancy, will be unveiled over the next five weeks.
First up is Essendon, now playing the kind of football that was widely expected of them before the season started. Their Anzac Day performance was arguably their worst of the year, but their blitzkrieg ball movement is back to where they want it to be.
Of the Pies losses, three of them have been to quicker ball movement teams, so their defensive system will get a good test this Sunday against the Bombers.
West Coast at the MCG in Round 17 is shaping as an easy kill if the Eagles don’t have Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras back by then, but it will still be a chance for a top four scalp.
Round 18 sees Collingwood square off with North Melbourne, who have been honest all year but are just starting to get found out a little now.
That set of games, where they’d fancy themselves to go 2-1 at worst, should see the Pies cherry ripe for when the big potatoes come.
Magpies head coach Nathan Buckley and his troops (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Round 19 could well be Richmond’s third top of the table clash for the year, if they and Collingwood can maintain their current positions. That will give the football world a chance to see how far the Pies have come since Round 6, when the Tigers tuned them up by 43 points thanks to an eight goal last quarter.
Richmond won the contested possession count by 30 and the clearances by ten that day, so Buckley will know he needs to fix up what happens around the ball against the Tigers.
Round 20, and the last of a testing five match run, bring a trip to Sydney to take on the Swans at the SCG. By this time, it is likely that a win to either team could put them in the top two, and a loss could see them drop out of the top four. The timing will be perfect for Collingwood to see exactly where they’re at.
The Pies midfield and forward-line are working well together, with a lot of depth and varying avenues to goal.
One aspect that can’t be overlooked is accuracy in front of the big sticks – Collingwood’s top five leading goal-kickers (Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jaidyn Stephenson, Josh Thomas, Jordan de Goey and Mason Cox) have kicked a combined 110.41 this year, converting at an exceptional 73 per cent.
The concern for the Pies is in defence. They’ve had a soft run the way the draw has panned out, but they are only ranked ninth for points against.
The Magpies are looking good this year – or are they? (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
What is largely a no-name back six is about to face their sternest test, and will have to do so for the rest of the year without full-back Lynden Dunn, who hasn’t just been taking the biggest jobs, but also provides drive with his raking right foot.
Collingwood have shown they can put away the bad teams, and are on track for at least a 15 win season, which will see them right in the thick of the top four action. 16 wins should lock them in.
They’ve built confidence, belief and momentum through the year, which have proven to be deadly weapons on the way to premierships for both Richmond and the Western Bulldogs in recent times.
Over the next five weeks, we’ll learn just how close they might be to emulating those teams this September.